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A path of terror and martyrdom
Sharon's hard-line policy of reoccupation is holding firm even though, finds Jessica McCallin in Jerusalem, it doesn't work and fuels revenge
The attack barely registered on Israel's emotional pulse. The agony of distraught relatives of the victims of Thursday's Jerusalem bus suicide bombing caused a temporary elevated blip, but within hours of the attack it was as if nothing had happened.
The bodies and body parts were cleared away, the bus was removed and a dull, resigned calm returned to the streets. Israelis going about their daily business had little to say on the matter.
'What do you want me to say? This is how we live here. It's become normal,' said a local cafŽ owner. 'It's not the first and it won't be the last. All you can do is hope it won't be you next. I just try not to think about them anymore. You can't live here and think about these attacks. You will go crazy.'
The attack, which killed 11 people, the youngest an eight-year-old boy, was the first suicide attack in Jerusalem in three months, but it ended two very bloody weeks for Israel. Two Sundays ago five people, including a mother and her two little boys, were gunned down in a kibbutz. Last Friday, Islamic Jihad gunmen ambushed soldiers and para military settler security guards in the West Bank town of Hebron, killing 12. On Wednesday, a settler women was killed while travelling on an Israeli-only bypass road just outside Hebron .
One thing is crystal clear: Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's policy of hitting the Palestinians, and hitting them hard, is not working. Since June, Israel has effectively reoccupied the West Bank. Its tanks control the centres of all major towns and cities, with Jericho the only exception. When they leave, it's only to the outskirts and usually only for a few days. Trenches, fences and barbed wire encircle many towns and villages. Month-long curfews have been imposed on the Palestinians. An estimated 4000 people have been arrested, the homes of militants destroyed. Half of all Palestinians are living below the poverty line and children are beginning to show signs of malnutrition.
But the policy is not working. An Israeli army spokesperson said that over the past six weeks it has received 151 specific terror warnings. Of these, it claims to have thwarted 85, while 33 have been successful. Clearly there is no shortage of Palestinians willing to carry out attacks on Israelis.
The Palestinian Authority (PA) says that as long as Israel continues down this road, the anger, hatred and desire for revenge will continue. It may be able to stop many of the attacks, but as Thursday showed, some bombers will always get through.
What Thursday also showed, however, was that the PA had failed in its attempts to get the Islamic militant groups to stop attacks inside Israel on Israeli civilians. The PA met with Hamas in Cairo last week to try and convince them to stop the attacks.
And just as the bombings now seem predictable -- the Hebron attack, which targeted soldiers, not civilians or settlers, being the only recent exception -- so too is Israel's response. By Friday morning, the tanks were back in the centre of Bethlehem, where the army says the bomber came from.
The bomber's father and brother were arrested along with 20 suspected militants. Villages in the Gaza Strip were attacked and houses blown up. Even the rhetoric was the same; numbingly predictable. As the tanks rolled into Bethlehem, army spokesperson Doron Spielman said they were going after the 'terror infrastructure' and, even though Hamas had claimed responsibility for the attack, blamed the Palestinian Authority, saying it had 'failed miserably' in its responsibility to prevent attacks.
There is a sense this weekend that Israel has run out of options. There was a glimmer of hope earlier in the week when the relatively unknown Haifa mayor, Amram Mitzna, won the Labour Party primaries. He will lead the party ahead of the January 28 general election. Mitzna has said he will immediately start negotiations, unconditionally, with any Palestinian leader -- a far cry from Sharon and his Likud Party which refuses to sit with Yasser Arafat. He has also pledged to immediately evacuate the 5000 settlers from the Gaza Strip. If negotiations lead nowhere after a year, he said he will unilaterally separate from the Palestinians, build a wall along the border with the West Bank and evacuate any settlers on the wrong side of it.
But the glimmer was just that. Opinion polls give Likud a big lead over Labour and with Thursday's bomb, any hope of Israel going to the Labour party is all but gone. All Israelis say they will vote for the party which brings them security and though most will admit Sharon has bought them nothing of the sort over the past year and a half, they still say they trust him more to do so.
The only real question now is whether Sharon or his foreign minister, Binjamin Netanyahu, will lead the Likud to victory. A Sharon victory would be good for Arafat and not too bad for Gaza. Sharon has promised George Bush, who is trying to keep simmering Arab anger from boiling over ahead of an attack on Iraq, that he will not expel the ailing Palestinian leader or launch a full-scale invasion of the Gaza Strip.
Netanyahu has pledged to expel Arafat. Neither has what it takes to bring an end to the conflict and give the Palestinians what most say they will be satisfied with: an end to the occupation and a truly independent state on the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza. The Likud party membership recently voted never to allow such a state. Netanyahu is right behind them. And while Sharon, the instigator of settlements in the occupied territories, will pay lip-service to the idea, what he actually means is limited autonomy on, at most, half of the West Bank.
That will never be acceptable to moderate Palestinians. 'You can't compromise on a compromise,' said Palestinian civil society leader Mustapha Barghouti. 'We have already agreed to recognise Israel on 78% of historic Palestine.'
The Likud stance will, however, please Palestinian extremists. Hamas and Islamic Jihad have no intention of ever recognising Israel. Their goal is to liberate all of historic Palestine and Sharon's hard-line tactics play straight into their hands. At the beginning of the intifada, opinion polls gave the Islamic parties around 10% of the vote. Now an estimated 30% of Palestinians support them.
'We confirm the path of jihad and martyrdom is continuing in every part of our occupied land as long as there is occupation and there are crimes. What is coming is bigger and, God willing, greater,' said Hamas's armed wing in a statement.
Moderate Palestinians say that only someone willing to recognise Pales tinians' rights and grant them a state will be able to halt the rise of the extremists. 'If Mitzna follows through on his promise to end the occupation and to recognise the parity of rights for the Palestinians, he will have gone a long way towards dealing with the causes of escalation and suffering,' said former Palestinian legislative council member Hanan Ashwari.
But with Mitzna and his Labour party slated to loose the elections, it seems that scenes like last week's, coupled with increasing hardship and desperation for the Palestinians, scenes that have now become normal for Israelis and Palestinians, are all that the future holds.
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