To buy now over next 6 months or not?

[Poor Kubes]

kubes.sg is the big loser apparently. He totally missed out the boom which he admitted, hence trying to justify himself hoping the market will crash.

Simple as that.

Even if he hasnt realised it himself.

How can us listen to this guy that simply doesnt have the foresight to make his fortune when most Tom, Dick and Harry in this forum has over the course of the last few years?

[Kubes.SG]

kubes.sg is the big loser apparently. He totally missed out the boom which he admitted, hence trying to justify himself hoping the market will crash.

Simple as that.

Even if he hasnt realised it himself.

How can us listen to this guy that simply doesnt have the foresight to make his fortune when most Tom, Dick and Harry in this forum has over the course of the last few years?

There is no way I would play in the SG prime property market.  It is too volatile and manipulated.  Globally the property mantra is location, location, location.  Unfortunately for Singapore it is timing, timing, timing  (both buying and selling).   Miss the timing window to buy or sell by a quarter or two and you will lose money.  I would need to check, but SG prime property prices have increased by more the 5% (annual-basis) for about 4 years in the last 15 years.  Property increases here happen in short spikes followed by steady declines, then extended flatness.

So even though I am not a player in the SG market, what fires me up is the broad stupidity and incompetence demonstrated by the promoters who make baseless statements justifying past and future property value increases.  I'm enjoying shooting them down, and happy to have people to try to do the same to me. 

I reckon property is a fantastic wealth builder, one that has worked for me very well.  But my simple position is that SG Prime Property overshot in 2007 and will decline in value by at least 20% from Dec 07 levels, by Apr 2009.   I have not varied from this position for the last 4 months.

[------------]

kubes = FRI

[He is]

kubes = FRI

just one of the many "potential" buyers on the left hand corner of the demand curve. Then there are those anti-enbloc die hards that are on the extreme right hand of the supply curve. As Enblocked says, one of the many unrealised sellers. Kubes.sg is one of the many unrealised buyers.

As they say, everyone has a price..

[Enblocked]

is FRI another 3-letter acronymn?

anyway 20% off december 07 prices would bring us to around May 07 prices, effectively discounting the wide-eyed frenzy of june/july 07. that's not too bad, and kubes is not that doom and gloom after all.

put aside all the figures and data, if you see people buying million dollars property in 5 min, something got to be not right. it really was deja vu 97; and there are quite a few people out there trying to sell their 97 property at "break-even" prices today. timing and the price you pay for - basic benjamin graham stuff that people forgot.



 

[Kubes.SG]

I first started to take notice of the hysteria and panic in the Singapore Prime Property market when one morning while driving into my office about 11am (after a morning conf call) I noticed about 50-75 people lined up along the footpath sitting on plastic chairs they brought with them.  The line led up to the entrance of the new property development that was about the released next to my office.  I had noticed the show-flat and sales rooms being built over the previous couple of months.  But what was really weird that morning was profile of the all the people waiting in the line.  They were essentially old Ah Beng uncles and aunties who would normally be seen in heartland food-courts and coffee shops - slippers, shorts, white singlets, 60+ years of age.  Not the profile I thought might be buying a $2m+ property.

I asked one of the locals in the office what the story was and he said they were all queue-sitters, possibly parents or relatives of people who wanted to snap-up apartments in new condo.  That was the end of August, within a week the whole place was sold out.

At that point I realized Singapore prime property was in a bubble and people were in full KIASU mode with rampant irrational panic buying.

[Some old timers]

can tell you what a real bubble looks like in Singapore. You have not been around long enough.

[Peasant]

I first started to take notice of the hysteria and panic in the Singapore Prime Property market when one morning while driving into my office about 11am (after a morning conf call) I noticed about 50-75 people lined up along the footpath sitting on plastic chairs they brought with them.  The line led up to the entrance of the new property development that was about the released next to my office.  I had noticed the show-flat and sales rooms being built over the previous couple of months.  But what was really weird that morning was profile of the all the people waiting in the line.  They were essentially old Ah Beng uncles and aunties who would normally be seen in heartland food-courts and coffee shops - slippers, shorts, white singlets, 60+ years of age.  Not the profile I thought might be buying a $2m+ property.

I asked one of the locals in the office what the story was and he said they were all queue-sitters, possibly parents or relatives of people who wanted to snap-up apartments in new condo.  That was the end of August, within a week the whole place was sold out.

At that point I realized Singapore prime property was in a bubble and people were in full KIASU mode with rampant irrational panic buying.

Many bought hoping for a quick flip and an Expat bonus. I wonder how many lost their deposit?

[Kuby]

I first started to take notice of the hysteria and panic in the Singapore Prime Property market when one morning while driving into my office about 11am (after a morning conf call) I noticed about 50-75 people lined up along the footpath sitting on plastic chairs they brought with them.  The line led up to the entrance of the new property development that was about the released next to my office.  I had noticed the show-flat and sales rooms being built over the previous couple of months.  But what was really weird that morning was profile of the all the people waiting in the line.  They were essentially old Ah Beng uncles and aunties who would normally be seen in heartland food-courts and coffee shops - slippers, shorts, white singlets, 60+ years of age.  Not the profile I thought might be buying a $2m+ property.

I asked one of the locals in the office what the story was and he said they were all queue-sitters, possibly parents or relatives of people who wanted to snap-up apartments in new condo.  That was the end of August, within a week the whole place was sold out.

At that point I realized Singapore prime property was in a bubble and people were in full KIASU mode with rampant irrational panic buying.

What you saw last year was nothing compared to in 96. That is why Kubes, you are not qualified to talk about the property market here. You need old timers like us to have a real good feel of the market. That is why I keep repeating that the level of speculation in the latest bull run was nothing to be worried about.

[agree with Dr Phil]

I believe in the USA great pressure is mounting to deal with high oil prices which has hit road freight transport costs and also the ordinary consumer. The only way to reduce prices down to YSD 2/Gall is to strengthen the dollar. This means interest rate hikes.

The rest of the world will follow when global investments and savings flow towards USA.

So save now. Do not buy

I agree. Interest rates can only go up. It was low interest rates and DPS that created the property bubble. Cash will be king for the next 18tms. Then have a look at the property market end 2009. You will be spoilt for choice and much cheaper.

[Undersupply]

Contrary to popular believe, there will not be an oversupply situation in 2009 or 2010.

Demand is grossly underestimated by analyst using pass year average to determind need for housing for this period.

Surge in job creation will see a surge in demand for housing in 09 and 10 asbording what is in the market.

Supply is also over estimated. The longer senitment remain weak this year, will result with more projects target for completion in 09/10 postponed.

[Kubes.SG]

What you saw last year was nothing compared to in 96. That is why Kubes, you are not qualified to talk about the property market here. You need old timers like us to have a real good feel of the market. That is why I keep repeating that the level of speculation in the latest bull run was nothing to be worried about.

Used to visit SG in those days, not living here.  So please enlighten us with your deep experience and wisdom, and explain why what happened last year is not a bubble and not a problem.

Also please help us interpret the SG Govt resulting actions, announcements and policy changes in response the escalating speculative activity.  Are they just plan silly and too conservative?

What is your definition of a bubble, and where is SG Property versus that definition?

Finally, what qualifies someone to comment on the Singapore property market?

[Kuby]

What you saw last year was nothing compared to in 96. That is why Kubes, you are not qualified to talk about the property market here. You need old timers like us to have a real good feel of the market. That is why I keep repeating that the level of speculation in the latest bull run was nothing to be worried about.

Used to visit SG in those days, not living here.  So please enlighten us with your deep experience and wisdom, and explain why what happened last year is not a bubble and not a problem.

Also please help us interpret the SG Govt resulting actions, announcements and policy changes in response the escalating speculative activity.  Are they just plan silly and too conservative?

What is your definition of a bubble, and where is SG Property versus that definition?

Finally, what qualifies someone to comment on the Singapore property market?

It has been mentioned many times under different threads over the last few months but you just refuse to absorb it. So I am not going to waste my time now.

In any case you are the least qualified to comment on local property. Perhaps the Australian market,

[Kubes.SG]

It has been mentioned many times under different threads over the last few months but you just refuse to absorb it. So I am not going to waste my time now.

In any case you are the least qualified to comment on local property. Perhaps the Australian market,

You have to be joking.  I don't think any of these explicit and clear questions have been answsered properly before.  Unless of course you seriously think the IRs, the Singapore Eye, F1 and 2040 6.5m population  are real factors fueling the 80% increase in prime property prices in 12 months to Nov 2007.

Come on.  Don't be a wimp.  Answer my questions.   Don't run away.

[Lunatic]

It has been mentioned many times under different threads over the last few months but you just refuse to absorb it. So I am not going to waste my time now.

In any case you are the least qualified to comment on local property. Perhaps the Australian market,

You have to be joking.  I don't think any of these explicit and clear questions have been answsered properly before.  Unless of course you seriously think the IRs, the Singapore Eye, F1 and 2040 6.5m population  are real factors fueling the 80% increase in prime property prices in 12 months to Nov 2007.

Come on.  Don't be a wimp.  Answer my questions.   Don't run away.

No use wasting time answering questions posed by a lunatic. I will let the market answer you.