Private properties: local demand?

[wildberry16]

I have finally read the "famous" Credit Suisse report mentioned in an earlier thread. I wonder about one important point, which in my opinion has been left out. What is the percentage of Singaporeans actually living in a private property versus those only owning one? That for me would represent the real local demand for private properties versus foreign demand.

Generally I think this report is too simplistic and does not take into consideration Singapore's changing society, which has become more in demand of lifestyle products over time (such as living in a condominium versus HDB or even landed property).

[Projects delayed]

What I learned report is that they do not take into account  evelopers delaying of projects. Hence the supply figure is not accurate.

I have finally read the "famous" Credit Suisse report mentioned in an earlier thread. I wonder about one important point, which in my opinion has been left out. What is the percentage of Singaporeans actually living in a private property versus those only owning one? That for me would represent the real local demand for private properties versus foreign demand.

Generally I think this report is too simplistic and does not take into consideration Singapore's changing society, which has become more in demand of lifestyle products over time (such as living in a condominium versus HDB or even landed property).

[Still strong]

I have been monitoring classifieds very carefully and apart from an occasional fire sale here and there, 99% of the asking prices are still very high -hardly any signs of speculators jumping ship.

[delayed projects]

Projects are delayed because the prices are going to be much higher in 6 months time.

I want to buy a home here but seriously thinking that I should do it now and not later.

[Contrarian]

Projects are delayed because the prices are going to be much higher in 6 months time.

I want to buy a home here but seriously thinking that I should do it now and not later.

Best time to buy is when no one is buying (like right now) and best time to sell is when everyone is buying.

Just ask yourself - if Credit Suisse & Barclays were not able to predict the start of the bull run and the rate of increase (which caught even the most bullish of bullish analysts by surprise) then what are the chances they will get it correct this time predicting a 40% plunge.

[reality check]

Because much of the cause of bull runs and crashes is sentiment.  If the papers are full of bullish reports, then it's a self fullfilling prophecy.  Same applies to property crashes.  If enough reports come out predicting a crash, people will get scared and sell.  I read some research that had been done on the Uk property market where the number of newspaper articles in national papers that turned bearish was correlated to the timing of the crash.  There is quite a strong link.  Of course other factors come into play that cause the analysts/journatists to turn bearish but once they've turned, the downward spiral begins.

[Appalled]

I am appalled at that monotonous and consistent crap that is allowed to be sprouted here by people clearly intent in trying to talk up the market.  Sometimes it is amusing when they try to twist the FACTS and the DATA that are opposite of their wishes.  But often it is just irritating and time wasting.

How can we stop this utter crap that is being posted here by property promoters and unemployed real estate agents?

Projects are delayed because the prices are going to be much higher in 6 months time.

I want to buy a home here but seriously thinking that I should do it now and not later.

I have been monitoring classifieds very carefully and apart from an occasional fire sale here and there, 99% of the asking prices are still very high -hardly any signs of speculators jumping ship.

[when]

u can chose

not to listen right

no one force u to come here

everyone have the right to comment in a forum

[Finished.]

the property market is finished, for now ... no matter how they try to talk it up.

[Likewise]

I am appalled at that monotonous and consistent crap that is allowed to be sprouted here by people clearly intent in trying to talk up the market.  Sometimes it is amusing when they try to twist the FACTS and the DATA that are opposite of their wishes.  But often it is just irritating and time wasting.

How can we stop this utter crap that is being posted here by property promoters and unemployed real estate agents?

Projects are delayed because the prices are going to be much higher in 6 months time.

I want to buy a home here but seriously thinking that I should do it now and not later.

I have been monitoring classifieds very carefully and apart from an occasional fire sale here and there, 99% of the asking prices are still very high -hardly any signs of speculators jumping ship.

Similarly how can we stop people intent on talking down the market with doomsday scenarios. If the market really plunges 40%, most of the expats here will be gone. Remember that.

[To appalled]

I am appalled at that monotonous and consistent crap that is allowed to be sprouted here by people clearly intent in trying to talk up the market.  Sometimes it is amusing when they try to twist the FACTS and the DATA that are opposite of their wishes.  But often it is just irritating and time wasting.

How can we stop this utter crap that is being posted here by property promoters and unemployed real estate agents?

Projects are delayed because the prices are going to be much higher in 6 months time.

I want to buy a home here but seriously thinking that I should do it now and not later.

I have been monitoring classifieds very carefully and apart from an occasional fire sale here and there, 99% of the asking prices are still very high -hardly any signs of speculators jumping ship.

Prices will decline by 80%. I guess this makes you feel better and my posting/prediction will be much welcomed in this expat forum unlike those supporting the market. Any other expat-positive stuff you would like to hear?

[why is that?]

I am appalled at that monotonous and consistent crap that is allowed to be sprouted here by people clearly intent in trying to talk up the market.  Sometimes it is amusing when they try to twist the FACTS and the DATA that are opposite of their wishes.  But often it is just irritating and time wasting.

How can we stop this utter crap that is being posted here by property promoters and unemployed real estate agents?

Projects are delayed because the prices are going to be much higher in 6 months time.

I want to buy a home here but seriously thinking that I should do it now and not later.

I have been monitoring classifieds very carefully and apart from an occasional fire sale here and there, 99% of the asking prices are still very high -hardly any signs of speculators jumping ship.

Similarly how can we stop people intent on talking down the market with doomsday scenarios. If the market really plunges 40%, most of the expats here will be gone. Remember that.

What makes you think that?  Were there no expats here two years ago when they were 40% lower?  Are we going to sack them all because office space and accomodation got cheaper.  Don't be ridiculous.

You seem to believe the housing cost is a direct reflection of Singapore's economy.  Traditionally it has tracked GDP and when it has blown up much above that level it has crashed back and started tracking again.  Current house price rises DO NOT reflect Singapore's economy growth, the same may well happen again.  That doesn't automatically mean the economy as a whole is tanking which is your scenario.

We now have a hard job getting people to come here because of cost of living, a 40% fall in housing would make it easier.

[EatTheRich]

You have to think it through a little..

Prices will fall significantly only if people start selling. At the moment there is nothing happening, so prices are not really moving at all.  Yes, new launches might be a bit cheaper,  but primary sale prices had become totally delinked from the secondary market, so this is not really a bad thing

So, what might cause people to sell?  A large percentage of private property is rented to foreigners. So if the supply of rental units exceeds demand then rents will fall, and some condo owners will be forced to sell. This will trigger a fall in prices

The upcoming supply of new condo units is well documented, and if jobs are created at the same rate as in the last year, then can probably be absorbed. However, companies here stop bringing in foreigners or reduce the number of foreign employees, then it is quite possible that suppy will exceed supply

Yes, you might find it easier to persuade people to come here, but would your company be in a state to want anyone to come here?

So potentially prices will fall because the expats have 'gone' not expats will be 'gone' becuase prices will fall

[Feeling the PAIN]

i bot something last year, and trying to sell it off but no takers; was willing to take a 10% loss ...sigh 

[40%]

I am appalled at that monotonous and consistent crap that is allowed to be sprouted here by people clearly intent in trying to talk up the market.  Sometimes it is amusing when they try to twist the FACTS and the DATA that are opposite of their wishes.  But often it is just irritating and time wasting.

How can we stop this utter crap that is being posted here by property promoters and unemployed real estate agents?

Projects are delayed because the prices are going to be much higher in 6 months time.

I want to buy a home here but seriously thinking that I should do it now and not later.

I have been monitoring classifieds very carefully and apart from an occasional fire sale here and there, 99% of the asking prices are still very high -hardly any signs of speculators jumping ship.

Similarly how can we stop people intent on talking down the market with doomsday scenarios. If the market really plunges 40%, most of the expats here will be gone. Remember that.

What makes you think that?  Were there no expats here two years ago when they were 40% lower?  Are we going to sack them all because office space and accomodation got cheaper.  Don't be ridiculous.

You seem to believe the housing cost is a direct reflection of Singapore's economy.  Traditionally it has tracked GDP and when it has blown up much above that level it has crashed back and started tracking again.  Current house price rises DO NOT reflect Singapore's economy growth, the same may well happen again.  That doesn't automatically mean the economy as a whole is tanking which is your scenario.

We now have a hard job getting people to come here because of cost of living, a 40% fall in housing would make it easier.

After the last bull run, prices fell a maximum of 35% on the average over a few years reaching bottom around 2003. The speculative activity in 96/97 was double of what it was in the latest bull run. The economy is in much better shape than what it was during that period.
For prices to fall 40% now, you will be back home with a pink slip in your hand  and you will forget about this forum since no one will advertise here to support it.