DPS desperate sellers: when to buy?

[Sail lover]

I keep reading every now and then that there are desperate sellers of uncompleted properties on the market, who are trying to get rid of their units just before TOP.

I would like to buy a unit of The Sail, but the price is still quite high for my budget. When is the best time to buy? Are we really going to see a price drop just before TOP?

[BETRAM]

Simple, put up a series of bold adverts in the papers and wait for a response from some desperado.

[...........]

Go check bca website top has been approved for sail tower 1 and 2. Or call CDL first collection of keys on the week of June 16th.

[Not selling]

If the so call DPS force sell is true. Wont now be the time these guys are in desperation? as the TOP is in June. No, prices are still very strong, the recent 2 studio changing hands tells you that.

Only first time buyer qaulify for DPS. And those owners are sitting on gain of more than 100%. Any banks would not hesitate to finance than the loan they need.

[chaos theory]

when to buy is always the Million dollar question. Property tends to lag the econonmy somewhat. We are just seeing the start of the property decline and it has a long way to go down over a long period of time. Following previous cycles it will have a continued sharp drop over the next 12-18 months. Then drift slowly down and stagnate over the next 2-3 years.

At the momment we see a sharp drop in demand/ volume. This is just the beginning. The real shocks to hit the Singapore Property market have not even begun. These are:

1.Global stagflation. Over the next 2 years this will really hit hard here. This is expected to be the worst since WW2. The financial sector is a long way from being out of the woods yet.

2. Interest rates. Commodity inflation is now moving into our nightmare case senario. Interest rates will double+ over the next few years which will half the mortgage amount available to buyers.

So if I was wanted to buy at the Sail. At least 18 months wait maybe more.

[.......]

What if you are wrong and prices go up in 18 months time and not down? Will you compensate the potential buyer for his / her loss?

[chaos theory]

To PP I will gladly take your bet, but YOU must also sign a contract to compensate them if they do buy and prices decline OK.

[why on earth]

What if you are wrong and prices go up in 18 months time and not down? Will you compensate the potential buyer for his / her loss?

Mr Mandelbrot, you are generous but why even humour the idiot.  Stating an opinion does not make you liable for someone else's loss, it just means you were wrong. 

Nevertheless, a bet is a different story.  I'd take some of that if he is willing to play.

[Kubes.SG]

What if you are wrong and prices go up in 18 months time and not down? Will you compensate the potential buyer for his / her loss?

Count me in too.  I would like to take .......'s bet.    Just to be clear, he is calling for Singapore prime property prices to be higher than today on 8th of November 2009.  I am betting they will be lower.  Pretty sure we could find a lawyer to draw up the definitions and contract, and hold the tendered amounts in escrow.   How much you willing to bet ....... ?   Are you offering odds?

[Sail lover]

Thanks everybody for your advice. It seems that the DPS related crash is not going to happen before TOP, so I am probably going to wait another 1-2 years and see what happens. If the price increases some more, then too bad I will continue renting.

My budget for this property is S$1.0M, so if I buy now I will probably get a low floor studio unit facing city. If I wait and the price goes down, I could squeeze in 1 more bedroom and a bay view maybe. Though, essentially it does not make that much of a difference to me, as I just like the location, which is 5min walking distance from work and 10min from Suntec.

[i love bets.]

Why not structure the bet this way. Since this is a discussion on the Sail. Why not the party that is of the view that property price will be up 18 months from now buy a studio unit in the sail and sell it in 18 months time. If prices go down he realizes the loss but if prices move up he would make a profit and the party of the view that property prices should go down pays him a sum equal to his profits - ie effectively doubling his profits?

[errrr, but]

How is that fair, if it was that way then if he loses he should also pay and double his losses.  The way you structure it is giving him 2:1 odds.

[Desperate not]

The difference this time is that many of the buyers on DPS can actually afford to purchase the property and rent out. That is why the predicted dumping of just TOPed properties did NOT happen. Just look at Park Infinia - just TOPed. Everyone thought the price would crash but it held pretty firm. Pls also bear in mind that those who bot direct from developers are still sitting on HUGE gains. Of course some may let it go at slightly lower than market (still make handsome profits BTW) but trust me, none are as desperate as some people would like them to be. Since every banker just follow each other's recommendation that properties will collapse these 2 years and pick up again - if you're a property owner, why sell now? If buyers are holding back and waiting for the well-documented crash, so are sellers. In fact, many sellers are just putting their unit out for sale and test the market, very few are as desperate as what people make them out to be.

I keep reading every now and then that there are desperate sellers of uncompleted properties on the market, who are trying to get rid of their units just before TOP.

I would like to buy a unit of The Sail, but the price is still quite high for my budget. When is the best time to buy? Are we really going to see a price drop just before TOP?

[chaos theory]

The speculators have had no other option but to complete the transaction because there is no sales volume/ demand in the market so even if they want to sell at a discount no one is buying. Typical contracted market

Their only option is to rent out so it will be interesting to track the rents on these apartments as the speculators look for some income to offset a million dollar investment loan.

Pretty negotiable Id say. If they cant get renters they will start dumping at a loss.

[So Bearish?]

Those smart contributors to this forum that were and are so bearish about the real estate market do not need a bet to realise their views.That is what financial markets are for. I am sure kubes and their fans were so sure about the market going down that they all bought a put option or sold short the Singapore developers stock six months ago. You must be already very rich and retired and that is why you spend so much time writing on this forum.