DPS desperate sellers: when to buy?

[wrong time]

Had a short view since last July, sorry, didn't quite pick the peak.  Damn....

Nevermind, I'm not long a bunch of bricks that are too illiquid to sell.

Unlucky champ.

[hohoho]

Kubes sounds like someone who would say oil price is going to go down by April 09!

[FRI..]

One way to go for SG property - UP. Enuff said.

[hahahahahaha]

One way to go for SG property - UP. Enuff said.

Get your mortgage rejected.  hahahahahahaha

[DPS mumbo-jumbo]

The difference this time is that many of the buyers on DPS can actually afford to purchase the property and rent out. That is why the predicted dumping of just TOPed properties did NOT happen. Just look at Park Infinia - just TOPed. Everyone thought the price would crash but it held pretty firm. Pls also bear in mind that those who bot direct from developers are still sitting on HUGE gains. Of course some may let it go at slightly lower than market (still make handsome profits BTW) but trust me, none are as desperate as some people would like them to be. Since every banker just follow each other's recommendation that properties will collapse these 2 years and pick up again - if you're a property owner, why sell now? If buyers are holding back and waiting for the well-documented crash, so are sellers. In fact, many sellers are just putting their unit out for sale and test the market, very few are as desperate as what people make them out to be.

I keep reading every now and then that there are desperate sellers of uncompleted properties on the market, who are trying to get rid of their units just before TOP.

I would like to buy a unit of The Sail, but the price is still quite high for my budget. When is the best time to buy? Are we really going to see a price drop just before TOP?

Park Infinia just recorded its highest price in its latest deal. Let alone crashing but prices are rising and that too for  developments that just got their TOP or about to TOP. That proves that all the weak buyers depending on DPS causing the crash was nothing but mumbo-jumbo. Also look at the near record latest deals for City Square, Soleil, etc.

[chaos theory]

Those smart contributors to this forum that were and are so bearish about the real estate market do not need a bet to realise their views.That is what financial markets are for. I am sure kubes and their fans were so sure about the market going down that they all bought a put option or sold short the Singapore developers stock six months ago. You must be already very rich and retired and that is why you spend so much time writing on this forum

It is the Global market that is bearish not me. Anyone investing in property in this climate after a 2007 bubble is taking a huge risk. Read below

Shares tumble as fears grow over oil surge
Yeates
June 10, 2008

GLOBAL oil prices hovered near record highs yesterday, helping to send Asian sharemarkets tumbling, amid a growing chorus of warnings that further increases are in the pipeline.

Crude oil was still above $US137 a barrel in European trading last night after the biggest-ever one-day rise saw prices peak above $US139 on Friday. Stockmarkets across the region fell sharply, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index losing more than 2 per cent, Taiwan's falling 1.8 per cent and South Korea's down almost 1.3 per cent. European markets also opened lower last night.

The sustained oil price surge has accentuated fears of a global slowing after the US recorded its sharpest downturn in the jobless rate in 22 years on Friday night. Investors worry that sky-high crude oil costs will bleed money from consumers, squeeze business profits and force central banks to raise borrowing costs in a bid to tame inflation.

[So Bearish?]

Only thing I am saying is that you can put your money where your mouth is by taking a short or put option on Singapore real estate stocks.  There is not need to challenge anyone for a bet. Investment advise or views are worthless unless you make money on them.

[yeap...]

The "winner" is the man with the most money in the bank. When you have "succeeded" or have relatively more money than the rest you have the right to say anything.

[Not mush DPS]

Actually a very small proportion bot their property on DPS, esp for mass market condos. So there might not be that many desperate sellers. DPS is also removed late last year, so properties TOP later in 2010 onwards unlikely to be on DPS anymore. So think twice if you believe there're many DPS desperate sellers. Recent data has shown that properties that just TOP did not crash.

Those forummers who merely say property crash are just parroting what the "analysts" out there are saying - no new insights. Bear in mind analysts are not always correct. In fact, it is unlikely anyone can make money just following the crowd, i.e. waiting for market to crash. If everyone can make money just following the general consensus, everyone will be multi billionaire already! In short, one needs to have more foresight than just follow the consenses.

The difference this time is that many of the buyers on DPS can actually afford to purchase the property and rent out. That is why the predicted dumping of just TOPed properties did NOT happen. Just look at Park Infinia - just TOPed. Everyone thought the price would crash but it held pretty firm. Pls also bear in mind that those who bot direct from developers are still sitting on HUGE gains. Of course some may let it go at slightly lower than market (still make handsome profits BTW) but trust me, none are as desperate as some people would like them to be. Since every banker just follow each other's recommendation that properties will collapse these 2 years and pick up again - if you're a property owner, why sell now? If buyers are holding back and waiting for the well-documented crash, so are sellers. In fact, many sellers are just putting their unit out for sale and test the market, very few are as desperate as what people make them out to be.

I keep reading every now and then that there are desperate sellers of uncompleted properties on the market, who are trying to get rid of their units just before TOP.

I would like to buy a unit of The Sail, but the price is still quite high for my budget. When is the best time to buy? Are we really going to see a price drop just before TOP?

Park Infinia just recorded its highest price in its latest deal. Let alone crashing but prices are rising and that too for  developments that just got their TOP or about to TOP. That proves that all the weak buyers depending on DPS causing the crash was nothing but mumbo-jumbo. Also look at the near record latest deals for City Square, Soleil, etc.

[chaos theory]

The "winner" is the man with the most money in the bank. When you have "succeeded" or have relatively more money than the rest you have the right to say anything.

It is a tragic fact that many people like this poster actually determine if they are "winners" or "losers" in life based on how much money they have in the bank.

That my friend is whats wrong with the Global economy at the momment and has put us in this mess. People have been chasing increased Asset paper value without actually creating "wealth" in terms of product.

Real wealth decreases. The bubble pops and then we start again. Its a bumpy and you should know how to ride it. Thats what these discussion *** are about. Sharing opinions.

My opinion is if you judge your lifes wealth by how money you have in the bank you'll never be happy.

[DPS]

The units that have TOP are those that were bought a few years ago before the market took off. Why should they be desperate to sell when they are sitting on gains. The units on dps that were sold last year are the ones to look out for.

[Balance]

In almost every property forum, doomsayers outweight bulls by 10:1. This is understandable, as there're always more people who "miss the boat" and are fervently posting news to bring down the market.

On the topic of DPS, let me present a more balanced view, as opposed to the "crash die burn" you've been reading from kubes & company.

(i) DPS prior to 2007 (TOP between 2008 to 2011)
As mentioned by a forummer earlier, these owners are not desperate as they're sitting on handsome gain. Imagine if you buy Park Infinia at 800psf, your rental yield today based on your entry price is 8%-10%? These people are not desperate. They are the smart ones who are rational and do not follow the market blindly.

(ii) DPS during 2007 (TOP post 2011)
Some people will say these people buy at the "peak" and will be desperate to offload from 2011 onwards. But also bear in mind by 2011, the 2 IRs are already up and running and there will be new demand by then. I bet the naysayers will say "THE IRs WILL FAIL!" or "The IR will only attract the lowly-paid workers which will only benefit mass market condos!". Fair comment, but we should never discount the possibility that the IRs might be a success - and looking at SG govt's track record, the chances of the 2 IRs being massive failures are quite low. Also, there is a spillover effect - if HDB or mass mkt condos appreciate, you can be sure that it will spillover to prime areas as well. So will these people be desperate to offload at a loss by 2011? It's not a sure thing for sure There're a lot of factors in play here - mkt may pick up by 2011. Please also bear in mind that for prime properties, only 30% are on DPS.These people are not down-and-out as you would imagine them to be. All of them fork out CASH downpayment of easily above $500k for a prime high-end property.

I'm not trying to talk up the market in any way. But I believe it is important to take a balanced view - taking into consideration both the upsides and the downsides. Posting only "crash die burn" is not balanced, and is getting boring.

The units that have TOP are those that were bought a few years ago before the market took off. Why should they be desperate to sell when they are sitting on gains. The units on dps that were sold last year are the ones to look out for.

[So bearish?]

Agreed with PP.  Some in this forum make fun of previous posts talking about IR but it does have an effect in GDP growth through construction expenditure in the next two years and in employment and tourists once it is completed.  Agreed this may be already in the 2007 prices so maybe a correction is what the doctor ordered.  But saying that the market will not recover in 7 to 10 years (Kubes dixit)or up 2012 (chaos theory dixit) is taking it too far.

[not balanced]

In almost every property forum, doomsayers outweight bulls by 10:1. This is understandable, as there're always more people who "miss the boat" and are fervently posting news to bring down the market.

On the topic of DPS, let me present a more balanced view, as opposed to the "crash die burn" you've been reading from kubes & company.

(i) DPS prior to 2007 (TOP between 2008 to 2011)
As mentioned by a forummer earlier, these owners are not desperate as they're sitting on handsome gain. Imagine if you buy Park Infinia at 800psf, your rental yield today based on your entry price is 8%-10%? These people are not desperate. They are the smart ones who are rational and do not follow the market blindly.

(ii) DPS during 2007 (TOP post 2011)
Some people will say these people buy at the "peak" and will be desperate to offload from 2011 onwards. But also bear in mind by 2011, the 2 IRs are already up and running and there will be new demand by then. I bet the naysayers will say "THE IRs WILL FAIL!" or "The IR will only attract the lowly-paid workers which will only benefit mass market condos!". Fair comment, but we should never discount the possibility that the IRs might be a success - and looking at SG govt's track record, the chances of the 2 IRs being massive failures are quite low. Also, there is a spillover effect - if HDB or mass mkt condos appreciate, you can be sure that it will spillover to prime areas as well. So will these people be desperate to offload at a loss by 2011? It's not a sure thing for sure There're a lot of factors in play here - mkt may pick up by 2011. Please also bear in mind that for prime properties, only 30% are on DPS.These people are not down-and-out as you would imagine them to be. All of them fork out CASH downpayment of easily above $500k for a prime high-end property.

I'm not trying to talk up the market in any way. But I believe it is important to take a balanced view - taking into consideration both the upsides and the downsides. Posting only "crash die burn" is not balanced, and is getting boring.

The units that have TOP are those that were bought a few years ago before the market took off. Why should they be desperate to sell when they are sitting on gains. The units on dps that were sold last year are the ones to look out for.

You are totally missing the point.  The IRs likely will succeed although probably not spectacularly.  They won't make much difference, naysayer or not, because of who they employ.

The reason Singapore propery will fall is nothing to do with crash, die, burn, failing economy, IRs not working or any of those things.  It is because the price increase over the last couple of years, same as 11-12 years ago, is irrational and overblown.  It will correct, as it has done before, to a level approximating Singapores economic growth.  Unofrtunately, as of today, that would mean a drop of 30%-40%.  Call it a correction or a crash, the issue is the last two years has been a bubble.

Look at it another way.  If two yaers ago everyone had said prices will be up 20% by mid 2008, may have sounded reasonable.  If people said they'll be up 100% in two years you may have thought that unlikely.  To revert to that sane prediction means a big drop.

We also have those who use 97 as a benchmark.  Wrong point, it might make you feel good to pick the top of a bubble (by Govt own analysis it was overpriced 60%) but it isn't very sensible.

[Bunch of Goondus]

In almost every property forum, doomsayers outweight bulls by 10:1. This is understandable, as there're always more people who "miss the boat" and are fervently posting news to bring down the market.

On the topic of DPS, let me present a more balanced view, as opposed to the "crash die burn" you've been reading from kubes & company.

(i) DPS prior to 2007 (TOP between 2008 to 2011)
As mentioned by a forummer earlier, these owners are not desperate as they're sitting on handsome gain. Imagine if you buy Park Infinia at 800psf, your rental yield today based on your entry price is 8%-10%? These people are not desperate. They are the smart ones who are rational and do not follow the market blindly.

(ii) DPS during 2007 (TOP post 2011)
Some people will say these people buy at the "peak" and will be desperate to offload from 2011 onwards. But also bear in mind by 2011, the 2 IRs are already up and running and there will be new demand by then. I bet the naysayers will say "THE IRs WILL FAIL!" or "The IR will only attract the lowly-paid workers which will only benefit mass market condos!". Fair comment, but we should never discount the possibility that the IRs might be a success - and looking at SG govt's track record, the chances of the 2 IRs being massive failures are quite low. Also, there is a spillover effect - if HDB or mass mkt condos appreciate, you can be sure that it will spillover to prime areas as well. So will these people be desperate to offload at a loss by 2011? It's not a sure thing for sure There're a lot of factors in play here - mkt may pick up by 2011. Please also bear in mind that for prime properties, only 30% are on DPS.These people are not down-and-out as you would imagine them to be. All of them fork out CASH downpayment of easily above $500k for a prime high-end property.

I'm not trying to talk up the market in any way. But I believe it is important to take a balanced view - taking into consideration both the upsides and the downsides. Posting only "crash die burn" is not balanced, and is getting boring.

The units that have TOP are those that were bought a few years ago before the market took off. Why should they be desperate to sell when they are sitting on gains. The units on dps that were sold last year are the ones to look out for.

You are totally missing the point.  The IRs likely will succeed although probably not spectacularly.  They won't make much difference, naysayer or not, because of who they employ.

The reason Singapore propery will fall is nothing to do with crash, die, burn, failing economy, IRs not working or any of those things.  It is because the price increase over the last couple of years, same as 11-12 years ago, is irrational and overblown.  It will correct, as it has done before, to a level approximating Singapores economic growth.  Unofrtunately, as of today, that would mean a drop of 30%-40%.  Call it a correction or a crash, the issue is the last two years has been a bubble.

Look at it another way.  If two yaers ago everyone had said prices will be up 20% by mid 2008, may have sounded reasonable.  If people said they'll be up 100% in two years you may have thought that unlikely.  To revert to that sane prediction means a big drop.

We also have those who use 97 as a benchmark.  Wrong point, it might make you feel good to pick the top of a bubble (by Govt own analysis it was overpriced 60%) but it isn't very sensible.

A drop of 40% will almost fully retrace the price gains the latest bull run and bring you to near the lowest prices recorded around 2003 which was the culmination of the bear run that started after 97. A 40% drop will bring you to prices below the peak achieved in 1997. So fools are those who believe that prices are going to fall by 40% - unless there is a depression - in which case you will no longer be interested in this forum or anything related tto property as you will be back home for good.