Kubes was right

[KubesFan]

See page 4 of Biz Times
Prime property district's prices show 1st fall in 4 years: DTZ
Downward pressure may increase as speculators dispose of units, it says.

....DTZ's basket of properties of prime freehold non-landed resale residential homes..., reflecting a 4.7% quarter-on-quarter decline..

..."Besides smaller developers, some of the bigger developers are also likely to reduce selling prices to move sales especially for developments that have been on the market for some time"

..."In addition, the sub-sale market is expected to be active with speculators disposing their units, especially those who have purchased multiple units on Deferred payment Schemes and are most likely to dispose some or all units to avoid stretching their financial limits".

------

So that's a close to 5% decline in prime properties within ONE quarter - and we still have some time to go to Kubes' projected time limit of the 10 to 20% decline by mid 2009!

[scarymary]

See page 4 of Biz Times
Prime property district's prices show 1st fall in 4 years: DTZ
Downward pressure may increase as speculators dispose of units, it says.

....DTZ's basket of properties of prime freehold non-landed resale residential homes..., reflecting a 4.7% quarter-on-quarter decline..

..."Besides smaller developers, some of the bigger developers are also likely to reduce selling prices to move sales especially for developments that have been on the market for some time"

..."In addition, the sub-sale market is expected to be active with speculators disposing their units, especially those who have purchased multiple units on Deferred payment Schemes and are most likely to dispose some or all units to avoid stretching their financial limits".

------

So that's a close to 5% decline in prime properties within ONE quarter - and we still have some time to go to Kubes' projected time limit of the 10 to 20% decline by mid 2009!

Absolutely. Its still very early days indeed. As we fall through the ranges of price decline, each decline will see buying levels but will also remove a layer of buyers from the market until it falls below critical mass. That is when things will get really scary.

[Kubes is wrong]

Kubes- please do not praise yourself. It was a no brainer that prime properties would decline after rising 100%. If it does not then that would have been very unhealthy for the market. The question is will it fall by 40% which Kubes claims will happen? I am sure  Kubes will be proven very wrong in this aspect.Kubes will always be a born loser.

[excuse me]

kubes only claimed 20% drop as  surety
don't put the 40% into his mouth

[Bear Filter]

The facts are the same, look at the very bearish picture taken by Today magazine.

IT ROSE to fever pitch just 12 months ago, but as the latest property market figures roll in, the en bloc charge could be all but over for property owners and developers alike.
Price growth in the private residential market slowed for the third straight quarter to 0.4 per cent, even as Housing Development Board resale prices grew strongly by 4.4 per cent between April and last month.
This petering off in the private home market comes after 6.8-per-cent growth in the last quarter of 2007 moderated to3.7 per cent in January to March, as the sub-prime crisis and global uncertainties took their toll, and developers lowered prices.
For would-be en bloc sellers, this spells weakened bargaining powers. One Pacific Mansion owner said residents of the River Valley condominium are trying to revive the en bloc process “at a much lower reserve price” than that set by the sales committee last year — then a record price of between $3.3 million and$3.5 million per unit at about $2,400 psf.
:Cushman and Wakefield managing director Donald Han said that in such a weak market, it would be futile for sellers to wait for their right price. “In some cases, you are better off making a decision to sell your unit directly on the open market.”
At the height of the en bloc frenzy in mid-2007, Koh Brothers bought freehold Lincoln Lodge in Newton with Heeton Holdings, KSH Holdings and Lian Beng Group for a record $1,449.30 psf per plot ratio.
:Mr Nicholas Mak, Knight Frank director of research and consultancy, said some developers who bought during the high face the challenge of waiting out weak market sentiment — although different developers will have different holding strength.
Mr Han said: “A small developer who is over-geared and has to sell may have to take a cut in pricing. But one that sold more than50 per cent of its projects last year would be quite comfortable holding on to whatever it has left until the market returns to normal.”
The worst-case scenario – where a developer has to sell at less than cost, resulting in a write-off on the balance sheet – will only happen in a recessionary scenario, such as during the Asian Financial Crisis or Sars period, said Mr Mak.
For now, some are temporarily leasing their acquired en bloc properties – such is the case with Lincoln Lodge, as well as Guocoland-acquired Sophia Court at Adis Road and Leedon Heights off Holland Road.
But even as developers have clearly lowered prices in recently-launched new properties, analysts are mixed on whether the mass market will bite.
For example, although prices for 122 units of the 348-unit Dakota Residences released recently averaged around $970 psf – lower than the $1,100 psf a year ago – research head of Chesterton International, Mr Colin Tan, thinks prices are still too high for the genuine HDB upgrader and owner-occupier.
“The addresses of most buyers for Dakota Residences are still private addresses, suggesting they are investors,” said Mr Tan.
But Mr Han thinks it boils down to clever strategy – “developers combining a package of pricing together with banks offering favourable mortgage rates” might succeed in luring buyes.
The slowing property prices should also bring good news on the rental front, especially to expatriates for whom this forms a large part of living expenses.
Already, rentals appear to have moderated, having risen just 10 per cent since the beginning of this year. Over the course of last year, private rental rates grew almost 40 per cent.
Mr Han attributed this moderation to recent completed projects “and some developers leasing out en bloc sites instead of tearing down – effectively not taking stock out of equation but putting it back”. :Slowdown in private market spells end of en bloc fever
 

Cheow Xin Yi

[40% it is]

kubes only claimed 20% drop as  surety
don't put the 40% into his mouth

40% is his ultimate target with 20% to be reached by 2009. You should have read his initial postings.

[quotation]

The slowing property prices should also bring good news on the rental front, especially to expatriates for whom this forms a large part of living expenses.
Already, rentals appear to have moderated, having risen just 10 per cent since the beginning of this year. Over the course of last year, private rental rates grew almost 40 per cent.
Mr Han attributed this moderation to recent completed projects “and some developers leasing out en bloc sites instead of tearing down – effectively not taking stock out of equation but putting it back”. :Slowdown in private market spells end of en bloc fever

[quotation]

The end of the global house price boom
Global Property Guide

Last Updated: Jun 19, 2008

Weighed down by the credit crunch and high inflation, the global house price boom has ended, according to our latest survey of house price indicators.

Only 13 countries in which dwelling price indices are regularly published saw prices rise during the year to end Q1 2008, while 21 countries saw dwelling prices fall in real terms, i.e., after adjusting for inflation.

In most countries where house prices are not falling, they are clearly losing momentum.

The biggest house price fall was in Latvia (Riga), down -38.2% by May 2008 from a year earlier, after adjusting for inflation.

US prices also fell during the year to end of Q1, by anything from -4.2% to -18.1%, after inflation, depending on which index is used.

In Europe, significant real house price falls took place during the year to end-Q1 2008 in Ireland (- 13.2%), Luxembourg (-5.8%), Portugal (-4.3%) and Malta (-4.9%).

UK house prices were only slightly down at end-Q1 from a year earlier, the house price crash having begun in earnest in early 2008. House prices fell during the first quarter by between - 0.7% to -2.1% (inflation-adjusted), depending on the index used.

In Japan, the housing market is now losing momentum once again. The urban land price index for 6 major cities was up only 4.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to H1 2008 in nominal terms (2.9% after inflation), down from 7.8% over the same period in 2007 (7.9% after inflation). The national index for Japan fell by 0.7% y-o-y to H1 2008 (-1.9% after inflation).

[quotation]

Kuwait fund buys just 36 Goodwood Residence units

It is not taking 97 units as it originally agreed to in Dec, and is also paying less

By Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent


KUWAIT Finance House (KFH) has ended up buying only 36 units in the posh Goodwood Residence, not the 97 it had wanted initially - and it is paying a lower price.

The Islamic banking group has paid $2,800 per sq ft (psf) for the apartments near Newton Circus - $400 psf below the price it agreed to in December when the property market was in full bloom.

The price at the time was a record for the area. The sale of the 97 units would have cost KFH about $818 million, which would have been the single largest purchase of residential units under construction in Singapore.

The sale also reflected the zest of foreign institutional funds to pump money into the then-dazzling property sector, a trend that has since slowed.

But the record-setting deal collapsed in March when developer GuocoLand said KFH had not exercised its option.

[Kubes.SG]

kubes only claimed 20% drop as  surety
don't put the 40% into his mouth

40% is his ultimate target with 20% to be reached by 2009. You should have read his initial postings.

Firstly, I only post on property and investment topics using my own nick-name - I have no reason to hide or manipulate the conversation.  I stand by what I write.

Secondly, what I have written about 20 times now is that:  "Singapore Prime Property prices will decline by at least 20% from their Dec 2007 levels by April 2009."  Simple and clear.  Seems some clown thinks that Dec2007 means Oct 1 - it does not.  It means the end of the Q4 2007.

You click my nick-link and check that I have never forecasted prime property prices will drop by 40% by 2009, though I did indicate I would be be surprised if they are down by up 40% by 2010/2011 towards the bottom of the cycle.   My conservative and repeatedly stated forecast stands.



Prime property districts’ prices show 1st fall in 4 years: DTZ

July 2, 2008

Downward pressure may increase as speculators dispose of units, it says

PROPERTY prices in the prime districts of District 9, 10 and 11 have registered their first fall in four years and DTZ Debenham Tie Leung believes that this downturn in sentiment could spill over to the non-prime districts.

In an analysis of resale prices based on its own basket of properties, DTZ found that prices of private residential properties in Q2 this year reflected the first correction in the past four years, led by non-landed residential units in the prime districts.

DTZ’s basket of properties for prime freehold non-landed resale residential homes include Cairnhill Crest, The Pier at Robertson and Botanic on Lloyd and capital values averaged $1,410 per square foot (psf) in Q2 2008, reflecting a 4.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter (qoq) decline. Capital values had remained at $1,480 psf for the two previous quarters.

While it should be pointed out that luxury home prices have reached new heights in recent years, DTZ said that it also tracks a separate basket of luxury properties which includes premier developments like Ardmore Park.

Outside the prime districts, capital values of freehold and leasehold non-landed resale residential units remained unchanged, averaging $750 psf and $610 psf respectively, holding steady at this level for three consecutive quarters after both sectors registered 7 per cent increases in Q4 last year.

And the outlook for rest of the year is likely to be challenging.

DTZ said that with high inflation compounding the expected economic slowdown globally, prices of private residential properties are set for further corrections.

‘Besides smaller developers, some of the bigger developers are also likely to reduce selling prices to move sales especially for developments that have been on the market for some time.’

‘In addition, the sub-sale market is expected to be active with speculators disposing their units, especially those who have purchased multiple units on Deferred Payment Schemes and are most likely to dispose some or all units to avoid stretching their financial limits,’ it added.

While some speculators may feel that renting remains an option for them, DTZ said that as rentals come under pressure in 2009-2011 due to the surge in new home completions, it is unlikely that speculators will want to hold on to their units for rental income.

DTZ does believe that there was significant wealth creation in the run-up to the recent ‘economic boom’ of 2006 and last year, and there is ‘pent-up demand’ from many who have been waiting for an opportune time to buy. ‘Take-up will eventually pick up when the market senses that prices have bottomed,’ it added.

On the pick-up in sales towards the end of Q2 2008 for ‘attractively located and reasonably-priced projects’, DTZ’s executive director (Residential) Margaret Thean said: ‘At the end of the second quarter, we began to witness the return of market confidence and an improved buying sentiment. Some residential projects are enjoying sell-out status while others are being are well-received. This is clearly indicated by the sell-out status of projects such as Suites 123 while Nassim Park, Parc Sophia, Dakota Residences and Clover by the Park received encouraging response.’

Business Times - 2 Jul 2008

[Kuby Kube]

Kuwait fund buys just 36 Goodwood Residence units

It is not taking 97 units as it originally agreed to in Dec, and is also paying less

By Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent


KUWAIT Finance House (KFH) has ended up buying only 36 units in the posh Goodwood Residence, not the 97 it had wanted initially - and it is paying a lower price.

The Islamic banking group has paid $2,800 per sq ft (psf) for the apartments near Newton Circus - $400 psf below the price it agreed to in December when the property market was in full bloom.

The price at the time was a record for the area. The sale of the 97 units would have cost KFH about $818 million, which would have been the single largest purchase of residential units under construction in Singapore.

The sale also reflected the zest of foreign institutional funds to pump money into the then-dazzling property sector, a trend that has since slowed.

But the record-setting deal collapsed in March when developer GuocoLand said KFH had not exercised its option.

Anyway who cares what you predicted. Are you desperately trying to prove yourself as the investment guru for this forum?So let's assume you are spot on, so what do you expect from us for being accurate. How many of us would have really taken your advice seriously.
It it makes you feel good and this is what you want then I will say it.
KUBES is the best GURU in this forum. Happy? Any more praises?.
By the way 80% of the analyst are predicting falls between 20-40%.

[News.]

DTZ said that with high inflation compounding the expected economic slowdown globally, prices of private residential properties are set for further corrections.

'Besides smaller developers, some of the bigger developers are also likely to reduce selling prices to move sales especially for developments that have been on the market for some time.'

'In addition, the sub-sale market is expected to be active with speculators disposing their units, especially those who have purchased multiple units on Deferred Payment Schemes and are most likely to dispose some or all units to avoid stretching their financial limits,' it added.

[Amazing]

DTZ said that with high inflation compounding the expected economic slowdown globally, prices of private residential properties are set for further corrections.

'Besides smaller developers, some of the bigger developers are also likely to reduce selling prices to move sales especially for developments that have been on the market for some time.'

'In addition, the sub-sale market is expected to be active with speculators disposing their units, especially those who have purchased multiple units on Deferred Payment Schemes and are most likely to dispose some or all units to avoid stretching their financial limits,' it added.

Just ask yourself what were these analysts predicting 6 months ago. Did they say 6 months ago that the local property market is going to tank 6 months down the road? So why believe them now - because they are saying what you or those who missed the bull run want to hear?

[News.]

Whatever they say, right or wrong, they are what they are ... professionals. What are your credentials?

[Poor judgement]

I hope you have found out by now these "professionals" are wrong more than 50% of the time. In short, you have a better chance of getting it right by throwing a dart.

These professional are very good at I would call "hedging". When property/stock market is good, they issue a lot of "buy" and "overweight" calls. They tend to follow each other's call. 6 months ago, they were all shouting "buy buy buy" Anyone who follow their calls will be losing money big time.

When market is bad (which is now),they play it safe by issuing "sell" calls - one after another - just follow the leader. When in actual fact, sometimes it's better to enter the market at the point of max fear, instead of shorting all your stocks when the market is pessimistic. It's funny when SGX is $15, all the analysts are shouting BUY. Now that SGX is $6+ which is already more than 50% off the peak, the sell calls start to come - asking you to short SGX at $6! Would you want to follow these analysts?

My views? Use your own judgement.

Whatever they say, right or wrong, they are what they are ... professionals. What are your credentials?