The Sail

[$ Transactions]

Isn't the price of prime properties like The Sail suppose to drop?

The average for units transacted in Aug = $2297
The average for units transacted in Jul   = $1799

There is a +28% difference between August and July and the jump is upwards!


Value $           Area     psf $       Month

 2,580,000     1,033    2,497     Aug-08
15,462,750    5,834   2,650     Aug-08
1,118,700       678     1,650       Aug-08
2,108,604       883   2,389       Aug-08

1,384,488       861   1,608      Jul-08
2,305,800    1,647    1,400     Jul-08
2,223,450    1,647    1,350     Jul-08
1,025,380       614     1,671     Jul-08
2,527,200       936     2,699     Jul-08
1,343,432       614     2,190     Jul-08
1,652,050       893   1,849     Jul-08
1,400,000       861     1,626     Jul-08

[Last surge]

There's always one last crazy surge just before the plunge.  Guy who paid 2650 is going to be really fed up...

[leverage]

the sail has two distinct type of units - bayview, non-bayview. bayview are going for 2k plus these days, non-bayview are going for 1k plus. the prices do feel like two separate developments. 

also there are more than 50 flrs, and generally prices are abt 8-10k per floor, so price discrepancies can be quite stark. 

it will be quite difficult and inaccurate to compare july and august sales figure based only on URA stats. there are paid sites which gives you the exact unit sold. if you are keen, you should subcribe for those.

fyi in the heady days, bayviews were going for 3k plus.

[The best view]

Oh that unit was on the highest floor, with the best view. (Wilderbeest sweeping majestically across the serengeti !) Best Feng Shui, also got! The flyer is literally flinging dollar coins threw the window.

Of course I have no proof of this but I have learnt watching property *** over the last 18 months you dont need it!
Its the exact same trick used by agents to explain low prices in this falling market. Worst floor ,  face longkang, etc...

[Blaze]

the sail has two distinct type of units - bayview, non-bayview. bayview are going for 2k plus these days, non-bayview are going for 1k plus. the prices do feel like two separate developments. 

also there are more than 50 flrs, and generally prices are abt 8-10k per floor, so price discrepancies can be quite stark. 

it will be quite difficult and inaccurate to compare july and august sales figure based only on URA stats. there are paid sites which gives you the exact unit sold. if you are keen, you should subcribe for those.

fyi in the heady days, bayviews were going for 3k plus.

You mean the flippers bought 3K+ from the developer and selling 2K+ now?

[Good point]

the sail has two distinct type of units - bayview, non-bayview. bayview are going for 2k plus these days, non-bayview are going for 1k plus. the prices do feel like two separate   developments. 

also there are more than 50 flrs, and generally prices are abt 8-10k per floor, so price discrepancies can be quite stark. 

it will be quite difficult and inaccurate to compare july and august sales figure based only on URA stats. there are paid sites which gives you the exact unit sold. if you are keen, you should subcribe for those.

fyi in the heady days, bayviews were going for 3k plus.

Lets look at the numbers by splitting them into two groups, August and (June+July).

The (June+July) average for the 20 transaction
for Type 1 (those less than 2k psf)                        = $1586

The (June+July) average for the 20 transaction
for Type 2 (those greater or equal 2k psf)               = $2259

In August there is 1 transaction so far
for Type 1 (those less than 2k psf)                        = $1650

The (August) average for the 3 transaction so far
for Type 1 (those less than 2k psf)                        = $2512


Putting them into a table:

Type                   1                2

August            $1650         $1586
(June+July)      $2512         $2259

The delta for August over (June+July) :

Type 1 =   4% 
Type 2 = 11%

Its early days for the August transactions. Lets watch..

BTW, there were only 4 transactions out of 120 from August 2007 above 3k or just 3%. Eyeballing the numbers, the average from Aug 2007 to now is around 2.0k to 2.2k.

It's better to stick to the URA data where it is freely accessible to the general public. Simple calculations and sorting like the above gives the information on trends.


Appendix:

Data for psf transactions are:

Aug

1650   2497
          2650
          2389

(June+July)

1619   2100
1689   2351
1700   2000
1800   2227
1580   2052
1513   2450
1600   2190
1367   2699
1684
1474
1324
1313
1655
1900
1626
1849
1671
1350
1400
1608

[false precision]

If an analysis has numbers in it, it doesn't mean it's precise.  Calculating a trend based on 1 and 3 units is a waste of time.

[As frankly said]

If an analysis has numbers in it, it doesn't mean it's precise.  Calculating a trend based on 1 and 3 units is a waste of time.

"Its early days for the August transactions. Lets watch.."

meaning, be alert, keep your eyes open as the number of transactions grow for August..

Some people will find the 4 transactions curious (not 1 or 2 but 4!) especially with all the 40% down talk. Instead of falling down, the last few transactions are falling up!

 

[leverage]

If an analysis has numbers in it, it doesn't mean it's precise.  Calculating a trend based on 1 and 3 units is a waste of time.

i agree. if anyone wants to buy, it's a great property and it's on an obvious  downtrend, so just go and bargain with the hundreds of sellers out there. you will probably get yourself a good deal.  no point creating silly little tables here.

[quick search]

Shows 111 properties at the sail for sale (some may be duplicates I know).  At this rate they aren't going to turn them over very quickly.  Plenty of buyer choice, prices are not going up when available properties are 15-20+ times monthly sales volume.

Sample given of actual transactions is, as noted, too small to read much into (also comparing what is presumably a penthouse costing/asking 15m with a 600 sq ft one bed/studio is rather irrelevant).  The number of units people are trying to sell is however big enough to tell you something.

[But still]

with the choice and bargains available, the last 4 transactions were priced above average. Must be great units for those buyers.

[Captain sexy]

Plenty of units for sale doesn't mean sellers are desperate.

Furthermore, agents often advertise for units they don't even have on hand.

[Bear is Dead]

Based on latest transactions reposted by URA Quite obvious that Sail prices are trending upwards.

[To bear is dead]

Based on latest transactions reposted by URA Quite obvious that Sail prices are trending upwards.

Not only The Sail, even Parc Emily's in Dist 9 prices are going up.

MOUNT EMILY ROAD Condominium 705,000 549 1,284 Aug-08
PARC EMILY MOUNT EMILY ROAD Condominium 745,000 603 1,236 Jul-08
PARC EMILY MOUNT EMILY ROAD Condominium 1,238,000 1,001 1,237 Jul-08
PARC EMILY MOUNT EMILY ROAD Condominium 1,078,000 980 1,101 Jul-08
PARC EMILY MOUNT EMILY ROAD Condominium 1,180,000 1,001 1,179 Jul-08

[very funny]

You guys must be desperate.  A condo with 1,000 units, over 10% are up for sale and you get excited about 4 or 5 a month.

Sure, bear is dead.