property market in singapore still very strong

[Ok God]

but I am 
If your whole strategy is only God knows, then I think you are in for some rough times.

Well then my dear God, how many points will DJIA be on 6 Oct?? If you  get it wrong, then you will have declare here that you are talking cock.

[Beginner?]

PPI = a + b GDP + c REALINT + d REALSTOCK + e — (EQ1)

PPI is a lagging smoothed index that does not seem to use actual property transactions as it's basis.

PPI is a measure of where prices should be, not where they are.
In 2007 PPI figure showed increases much lower than actual transaction price increases. It will do the same on the way down. Remember 1st Q PPI was showing an increase when transaction prices where already declining. There is built in lag.

We will talk let the figures do the talking. The figures so far show that Bears will forever remain Born losers. They are not going to be able to afford a local home forever.

Frankly if you are sincerely monitoring prices for sub-sale and resale condos, you would have anticapated URA's figures. Prices are hardly coming down. There is no panic selling at all. The number of classifieds for property sales are declining . There is no desperation out there to sell my dear bears, because the level of speculation was very low,  borderline DPS buyers have left long time ago and the remaining units are in very strong hands who can afford the mortgage even if their units remain untenanted.

You are obviously new to the real estate market. What we are witnessing today is the beginning of a long downturn in property. The scenario that panning is the same as the previous cycles. I've seen the previous 2 cycles and I can assure you that the signs are nearly identical, except that this time round, the downturn may last a lot longer due to slowing global economy and possibly, a global recession. Ignore the signs at your peril. We always want to believe in what we choose to believe, but sometimes, you do end up paying a price for it...

You mean all cycles are 100% identical. If you believe in that than you must be an infant in the world of investments. Now how many predicted one year ago the mess we are supposedly getting into now? So likewise, how will be able to accurately predict how this cycle will evolve and what is going to happen in 12 months time. My investment philosophy is very simple - Only God knows. Are you God?

It is precisely why we are not God that history never fails to repeat itself. The circumstances may be different, but the outcomes are the same. The interesting things is that individually, humans are unpredictable, but collectively, we are highly predictable. Some would put it rather unkindly that we may be smart individually, but stupid collectively. That's why we can reasonably make long term policies, such as in economics, because it is possible to predict collective human behaviour.

I am no God, obviously. God is on a totally different plane altogether. While we can reasonably see and make our best assessment about what is about to happen, we can't do anything to stop a train wreck while he can. That's the difference. My colleagues and I have foreseen this mess that is happening back in early 2006, but obviously, no one took us seriously, and that is to be expected. When you are having so much fun at a party and drinking yourself silly, you would have trouble seeing even a truck barrelling into your path. We have also wagered on major bank failures and correctly picked the banks that went under, and that was over a year before it happened. No, we didn't make a lot of money out of it because my job does not allow me to profit from what we know, because we would not be able to stay objective if we have a vested interest.

Obviously, I'm not here to gloat. Nobody really cares anyway and I don't need to feel good about myself by proving that I'm right. That's infantile. I'm just trying to point out, in simply terms, that one ignores the lessons from history at his peril.

[PROPERTY pxs]

will tank. Ohhh it hurts to know that the pxs you bought were BUBBLY prices. KOKZ yr head for being stooooopidzzzz  

[i can tell you]

[quote}
Well then my dear God, how many points will DJIA be on 6 Oct?? If you  get it wrong, then you will have declare here that you are talking cock.
[/quote]

but if it is incorrect, it is because I move in mysterious ways. 

[We need help of God]

PPI = a + b GDP + c REALINT + d REALSTOCK + e — (EQ1)

PPI is a lagging smoothed index that does not seem to use actual property transactions as it's basis.

PPI is a measure of where prices should be, not where they are.
In 2007 PPI figure showed increases much lower than actual transaction price increases. It will do the same on the way down. Remember 1st Q PPI was showing an increase when transaction prices where already declining. There is built in lag.

We will talk let the figures do the talking. The figures so far show that Bears will forever remain Born losers. They are not going to be able to afford a local home forever.

Frankly if you are sincerely monitoring prices for sub-sale and resale condos, you would have anticapated URA's figures. Prices are hardly coming down. There is no panic selling at all. The number of classifieds for property sales are declining . There is no desperation out there to sell my dear bears, because the level of speculation was very low,  borderline DPS buyers have left long time ago and the remaining units are in very strong hands who can afford the mortgage even if their units remain untenanted.

You are obviously new to the real estate market. What we are witnessing today is the beginning of a long downturn in property. The scenario that panning is the same as the previous cycles. I've seen the previous 2 cycles and I can assure you that the signs are nearly identical, except that this time round, the downturn may last a lot longer due to slowing global economy and possibly, a global recession. Ignore the signs at your peril. We always want to believe in what we choose to believe, but sometimes, you do end up paying a price for it...

You mean all cycles are 100% identical. If you believe in that than you must be an infant in the world of investments. Now how many predicted one year ago the mess we are supposedly getting into now? So likewise, how will be able to accurately predict how this cycle will evolve and what is going to happen in 12 months time. My investment philosophy is very simple - Only God knows. Are you God?

It is precisely why we are not God that history never fails to repeat itself. The circumstances may be different, but the outcomes are the same. The interesting things is that individually, humans are unpredictable, but collectively, we are highly predictable. Some would put it rather unkindly that we may be smart individually, but stupid collectively. That's why we can reasonably make long term policies, such as in economics, because it is possible to predict collective human behaviour.

I am no God, obviously. God is on a totally different plane altogether. While we can reasonably see and make our best assessment about what is about to happen, we can't do anything to stop a train wreck while he can. That's the difference. My colleagues and I have foreseen this mess that is happening back in early 2006, but obviously, no one took us seriously, and that is to be expected. When you are having so much fun at a party and drinking yourself silly, you would have trouble seeing even a truck barrelling into your path. We have also wagered on major bank failures and correctly picked the banks that went under, and that was over a year before it happened. No, we didn't make a lot of money out of it because my job does not allow me to profit from what we know, because we would not be able to stay objective if we have a vested interest.

Obviously, I'm not here to gloat. Nobody really cares anyway and I don't need to feel good about myself by proving that I'm right. That's infantile. I'm just trying to point out, in simply terms, that one ignores the lessons from history at his peril.

History repeats itself but not in the exact manner. Generally. So yes we know we are in a down cycle now. But no one knows hos long and severe this down turn is going to be. Will a 40% price decline in the previous bear market necessarily equate to a 40% price decline in the present bear cycle? Of course not. Otherwise, we would all be  billionaires. We still need the help of God who can be full of surprises.

[Kubes.SG]

You mean all cycles are 100% identical. If you believe in that than you must be an infant in the world of investments. Now how many predicted one year ago the mess we are supposedly getting into now? So likewise, how will be able to accurately predict how this cycle will evolve and what is going to happen in 12 months time. My investment philosophy is very simple - Only God knows. Are you God?

This posting is quite shocking.  That someone is honestly surprised at what is happening now, and did not realize even last year that property globally had hit bubbly proportions and would definitely decline.  Yes, the sub-prime and broader credit crunch has been more serious that many expected, but there were plenty of Cassandras raising the alarm.  Sadly it is the fools who are now surprised this is happening.

[Kubes gone crazy]

You mean all cycles are 100% identical. If you believe in that than you must be an infant in the world of investments. Now how many predicted one year ago the mess we are supposedly getting into now? So likewise, how will be able to accurately predict how this cycle will evolve and what is going to happen in 12 months time. My investment philosophy is very simple - Only God knows. Are you God?

This posting is quite shocking.  That someone is honestly surprised at what is happening now, and did not realize even last year that property globally had hit bubbly proportions and would definitely decline.  Yes, the sub-prime and broader credit crunch has been more serious that many expected, but there were plenty of Cassandras raising the alarm.  Sadly it is the fools who are now surprised this is happening.

Kubes, your brains have really gone into your axx. Your reply is completely disconnected.

[Beginner?]

PPI = a + b GDP + c REALINT + d REALSTOCK + e — (EQ1)

PPI is a lagging smoothed index that does not seem to use actual property transactions as it's basis.

PPI is a measure of where prices should be, not where they are.
In 2007 PPI figure showed increases much lower than actual transaction price increases. It will do the same on the way down. Remember 1st Q PPI was showing an increase when transaction prices where already declining. There is built in lag.

We will talk let the figures do the talking. The figures so far show that Bears will forever remain Born losers. They are not going to be able to afford a local home forever.

Frankly if you are sincerely monitoring prices for sub-sale and resale condos, you would have anticapated URA's figures. Prices are hardly coming down. There is no panic selling at all. The number of classifieds for property sales are declining . There is no desperation out there to sell my dear bears, because the level of speculation was very low,  borderline DPS buyers have left long time ago and the remaining units are in very strong hands who can afford the mortgage even if their units remain untenanted.

You are obviously new to the real estate market. What we are witnessing today is the beginning of a long downturn in property. The scenario that panning is the same as the previous cycles. I've seen the previous 2 cycles and I can assure you that the signs are nearly identical, except that this time round, the downturn may last a lot longer due to slowing global economy and possibly, a global recession. Ignore the signs at your peril. We always want to believe in what we choose to believe, but sometimes, you do end up paying a price for it...

You mean all cycles are 100% identical. If you believe in that than you must be an infant in the world of investments. Now how many predicted one year ago the mess we are supposedly getting into now? So likewise, how will be able to accurately predict how this cycle will evolve and what is going to happen in 12 months time. My investment philosophy is very simple - Only God knows. Are you God?

It is precisely why we are not God that history never fails to repeat itself. The circumstances may be different, but the outcomes are the same. The interesting things is that individually, humans are unpredictable, but collectively, we are highly predictable. Some would put it rather unkindly that we may be smart individually, but stupid collectively. That's why we can reasonably make long term policies, such as in economics, because it is possible to predict collective human behaviour.

I am no God, obviously. God is on a totally different plane altogether. While we can reasonably see and make our best assessment about what is about to happen, we can't do anything to stop a train wreck while he can. That's the difference. My colleagues and I have foreseen this mess that is happening back in early 2006, but obviously, no one took us seriously, and that is to be expected. When you are having so much fun at a party and drinking yourself silly, you would have trouble seeing even a truck barrelling into your path. We have also wagered on major bank failures and correctly picked the banks that went under, and that was over a year before it happened. No, we didn't make a lot of money out of it because my job does not allow me to profit from what we know, because we would not be able to stay objective if we have a vested interest.

Obviously, I'm not here to gloat. Nobody really cares anyway and I don't need to feel good about myself by proving that I'm right. That's infantile. I'm just trying to point out, in simply terms, that one ignores the lessons from history at his peril.

History repeats itself but not in the exact manner. Generally. So yes we know we are in a down cycle now. But no one knows hos long and severe this down turn is going to be. Will a 40% price decline in the previous bear market necessarily equate to a 40% price decline in the present bear cycle? Of course not. Otherwise, we would all be  billionaires. We still need the help of God who can be full of surprises.

First of all, we shouldn't expect God to bail us out a mess that we created. That would be irresponsible and lacking in self-respect. As dignified humans, we should solve our own problems...

The meaningless banter aside, yes history does not repeat itself in exactly the same manner, but the underlying human behaviour that created the condtions and led to similar outcomes are essentially the same. It is strange but while you can't persuade one person to shop naked in Orchard Road on a Sunday, you can actually make a group of peopel do it if it is big enough, and provided that the govt allows it, of course.

No one really knows how much prices will come off but we can always make a best guess. We can crunch figures on certain assumptions (which may be wrong anyway). Or we see it from the perspective of average Joe. If enough people remembers or are told how much prices came of in previous rounds, it would shape their perception and behaviour, the figures would then come pretty close. Like I've said, everyone thinks that they are smarter than the next guy without realising that they are all part of a huge human system that behave in certain predictable manners. It is this little individual behaviour that feeds on each other on itself that lead to predictable macro behaviour. No one likes to think of themselves as being intellectually challenged, but one of the ironies in life is that the smartest people are those who acknowledge that they are not smart enough, because only then will you be able to question, not what others are doing and see their silliness, but your own silliness and inadequacies. The smartest dog is the one which wonders why every other dog is jumping over the wall to show that they are best or up there with the best, when the easiest thing to do is just to walk around it...and does so.

[grow up marra]

What the f*ck has god got to do with it?

Greed, go figure.  Lots of bankrupt greedy people, I think god would approve.

[we wait]

Goldman Sachs estimated in August that half of the world economy faces recession, with richer nations faring the worst.

``Singapore is more exposed because it not only has a huge financial sector, it's also a very open economy,'' said Standard Chartered's Harr.

The pain is apparent in Singapore's real estate. Home prices fell for the first time in more than four years in the third quarter. Shares of CapitaLand Ltd., the nation's largest developer, slumped to a three-year low this week.

Zeng Yushan, 24, an agent at HSR Property Consultants Pte, Singapore's biggest real-estate agency, said she's struggling to find buyers for luxury apartments.

``I used to sell last year four to five properties a month,'' said Zeng. ``I can now only close one a month or none at all.''

The outlook may prompt the central bank to opt for zero currency appreciation this month, known as a neutral position, according to Kit Wei Zheng, a Singapore-based economist at Citigroup Inc.

``There's a good chance we may be entering a deeper and more prolonged slump than what many people have been expecting,'' said Kit.

[hopefully]

rentals will come off by a bigger margin.