Property market changing?

[Looking around]

Our lease is about to expire in the West and we are looking around the East Coast for a move in December.  We have some time to check places out but with the recession looming we are hoping rents will come down a little so we can get a something suitable for the family rather than making do.  

Has anyone had experience on how realistic landlords/agents are at the moment about rents dropping.  I'm thinking we need to hold off as long as possible so get some leverage in the market or is this too ambitious?  

[Yes...]

They have to come down - no doubt about it. Check some of the threads on the investment and property page, lots of debate about it there. I'm requesting an extension on our lease of about 3 months (it's up in December) if they haven't dropped far enough for my liking. The problem here is the LL's will hold out as long as they can before making realistic drops. If the market has settled enough for me to be happy with it come December I'll continue searching then but my gut feeling is the market will need a few more months. I dont want to sign a lease to find out the asking price has dropped another 1 or 2 thousand a few months later - not considering the ridiculous price we've been paying. My LL isn't stupid, the price here has already dropped a little, he is apparently happy to keep us on for a few more months (at this ridiculous price )

[waiting game....]

Agree hold off for as long as you can reality hasn't hit many LL yet. It may take another 3 months or so. LL here are greedy and thick it will take a bit of time for the penny to drop....

[nothing in life is free]

They have to come down - no doubt about it. Check some of the threads on the investment and property page, lots of debate about it there. I'm requesting an extension on our lease of about 3 months (it's up in December) if they haven't dropped far enough for my liking. The problem here is the LL's will hold out as long as they can before making realistic drops. If the market has settled enough for me to be happy with it come December I'll continue searching then but my gut feeling is the market will need a few more months. I dont want to sign a lease to find out the asking price has dropped another 1 or 2 thousand a few months later - not considering the ridiculous price we've been paying. My LL isn't stupid, the price here has already dropped a little, he is apparently happy to keep us on for a few more months (at this ridiculous price )

Oh yes the investment and property forum on this site is the definitive analytical masterpiece on the singapore property market.

haha...  you people are so naive.

When Jim Rogers and people like Marc Faber come out in public to dispense free advice to the public, do you not think there is no vested interest in their "advice"? Jim Rogers loves China, not because he really thinks it is an up and coming economy, but because he thinks there are lots of suckers there to make money off of.

Likewise people like Kubes and co.  There is almost always an agenda behind what people say.  There is no such thing as free advice that doesn't also serve the advisor's purpose.

[My Example]

I just signed up for a lease in the east coast area. My 2 cents..

- if you can delay looking for a place by a few months, do it, because prices are only going down

- use the govt rental stats as a guide - we have seen units now being advertised at the lower end of the govt stats for last quarter (2nd quarter 2008). We closed our deal at about 10% below the lower end of govt stats.

I am pretty sure if we had the luxury of moving in a few months later, the rates would soften even further.

Use the govt stats to sniff out blatantly overpriced asking rates. Some of them may ask for the moon and then come back and accept your lowball offer - the idea being you will go "Wow I got 25% off! Let me sign the deal NOW!"

[beavis]

When Jim Rogers and people like Marc Faber come out in public to dispense free advice to the public, do you not think there is no vested interest in their "advice"? Jim Rogers loves China, not because he really thinks it is an up and coming economy, but because he thinks there are lots of suckers there to make money off of.

Likewise people like Kubes and co.  There is almost always an agenda behind what people say.  There is no such thing as free advice that doesn't also serve the advisor's purpose.

I disagree.  I highly respect Jim Rogers and Marc Faber and they've made  a lot of good calls long before they were obvious to others.  They're just realists who take the world as it comes, and look for money-making opportunities.  While they're well-known. neither is anywhere near big enough to sway the market one way if the fundamentals are pointing in the other direction.  Even more so for Kubes.  He's way too smart to believe he can talk the market here in whichever direction would benefit his portfolio (which he says is cash anyway).

Just a couple of days Warren Buffett was also accused of cynicism when he lent his support to the bailout package (he has a stake in it after investing in Goldman Sachs).  Here we have a guy who has pledged almost his entire fortune to charity, and still people are questioning his motives.

[doubt]

Agree hold off for as long as you can reality hasn't hit many LL yet. It may take another 3 months or so. LL here are greedy and thick it will take a bit of time for the penny to drop....

LL are as thick as you.

[Dr. Phil]

I agree Marc Faber gives sound economic advice which is based on experience and common sense.

For example, don't buy gold it is already falling and you must be able to take physical possession of the gold or it will be no less vulnerable.

Here, people are spreading their money around and HSBC are doing a great deal of business with new accounts.

The Singapore private property market is already in decline and is heading for a substantial correction so hold off and new leases will be at reduced levels. There is a huge over-supply and new developments are being put on hold due to finace restrictions.

The business property market is steady but will inevitably decline also.

In Dubai this is a major problem right now and even the huge and hugely expensive developments will tank because mortgages are not so readily available.

Personally I still favour us dollars. We are seeing the GBP collapsing and the Euro is now being advrsely affected. The decline of these dodgy currencies will boost the usd.

And as always, Cash is King.

As for the US Wall Street bail out, I was saddened to hear the wonderful Nancy Pelosi say "Its not a Bail Out but a Buy In" which I thought was a tacky piece of misrepresentation.
Churchill always maintained politicians must be open and up front with the people no matter how bad the news is they must be given full facts and then they will deal maturely with the problem.

If US Congress does agree to pay Wall Street the usd 700bn, I hope payment is conditional and only effected "when Hell freezes over". 

 

[Kubes.SG]

Likewise people like Kubes and co.  There is almost always an agenda behind what people say.  There is no such thing as free advice that doesn't also serve the advisor's purpose.

Kinda cynical claim to make on discussion site like this, where the site's entire basis is for people to asking questions, other people answering them, and a few people getting upset because opinions differ. 

As to Beavis point, there are many experts who provide rational, understandable and sensible advice that is backed with proper insight, data and analysis.  Not everyone has vested interests.  Certainly there is nothing I can do here or elsewhere that will turn the market to my benefit.  Instead I can share my thoughts so that others can potentially include them in their decision making process.  Critical discussion and analysis was sadly lacking last year when everyone was in a panic about rising rental and property prices.  The few threads that existed deteriorated into shouting matches between the rationalists and promoters.

So, as for everything, take advice you get from anywhere with a dash of skepticism, and be sure you understand what you are committing too.

BTW:  Here is my advice:  1) Residential rents to continue to decline substantially in 2009 and into 2010;  2) prime property prices to decline >20% from earlier highs by mid 2009 with decline accelerating into 2010;  3) massive oversupply of commercial property and 50% decline in corresponding rental rates by 2010.

[How?]

I would like the rentals to take a plunge next year, however, haven't you heard the latest increase in resident population?  Singapore now has 4.839 million people which means that the government has allowed in a substantial number of foreigners in the past year or so.  These people will be looking for accomodation.  Maybe it is a ploy to keep the property market buoyant.

[ECmum]

OP I live in a condo on the EC and I have been tracking houses on the EC as I am moving into a house early next year. I have a lot of friends living in houses in Tanjong Katong, Siglap and Bedok. The street my friend has rented on now has 6 "For Rent " signs up. This is what I am going to do. I am due to move mid Feb. In Nov I am going to go around the EC and have a look what's up for rent. I am also going to use a few agencies then. Then, in Jan I am going to go back over my ground and see what is still available. Anything that I like, that's not shifted will get an offer a lot less than the asking price. My friend recently rented a really nice terrace which was all done up for S$4K, her neighbours ended up paying 5K but I think her place would now go for less than she paid. There are bargains to be had if you know your EC onions! I do not think that many expats will be coming in over the next 6 months and some will be heading home. After a couple of months of no mortgage coupled with a dismal economic outlook globally I'm sure some LL's will see they should be flexible.

[ECmum]

From what my husband tells me re those figures 700,000 are work permit holders (e.g. Indian construction workers and helpers) so no need to panic about a drop in supply of mid to high end residences to let.

[Dr. Phil]

Likewise people like Kubes and co.  There is almost always an agenda behind what people say.  There is no such thing as free advice that doesn't also serve the advisor's purpose.

Kinda cynical claim to make on discussion site like this, where the site's entire basis is for people to asking questions, other people answering them, and a few people getting upset because opinions differ. 

As to Beavis point, there are many experts who provide rational, understandable and sensible advice that is backed with proper insight, data and analysis.  Not everyone has vested interests.  Certainly there is nothing I can do here or elsewhere that will turn the market to my benefit.  Instead I can share my thoughts so that others can potentially include them in their decision making process.  Critical discussion and analysis was sadly lacking last year when everyone was in a panic about rising rental and property prices.  The few threads that existed deteriorated into shouting matches between the rationalists and promoters.

So, as for everything, take advice you get from anywhere with a dash of skepticism, and be sure you understand what you are committing too.

BTW:  Here is my advice:  1) Residential rents to continue to decline substantially in 2009 and into 2010;  2) prime property prices to decline >20% from earlier highs by mid 2009 with decline accelerating into 2010;  3) massive oversupply of commercial property and 50% decline in corresponding rental rates by 2010.

Kubes, not only are you correct but you may even be understating the extent of the decline.

Smart money will take your post as a heads-up.

Companies will be downsizing especially with rented business premises and unemployment will increase globally as operating costs are cut.

Clearly, China and India and other producer nations will be the hardest hit and international trade will decline.

There are really hard times ahead with little respite until 2010.

If US Congress rejects the Wall Street blackmail attempt it will actually have a beneficial and a cleansing effect on markets.

Employment in USA will pick up as they reclaim their manufacturing base and hardship may force the globaisation morons to do the same in their countries.

The Irish government has guaranteed all savings in Irish banks so there will be no rush on banks there. A brilliant and timely move which will cost nothing. The UK government is going to do the same.

Its all about confidence as I have been saying for some time now.
 

[But...what about the F1?]

Every property "expert" has been quoted in the ST that the F1 race will boost the economy by putting Singapore "on the map!". The logic goes that the thousands of celebrities and ultra-wealthy F1 fans attending the race and uber parties will be so impressed that they will all buy homes here. Demand returns. Property values skyrocket as will rents. OK, the GP has come and gone. Better lock in your "low" rents now!

[Dr. Phil]

Every property "expert" has been quoted in the ST that the F1 race will boost the economy by putting Singapore "on the map!". The logic goes that the thousands of celebrities and ultra-wealthy F1 fans attending the race and uber parties will be so impressed that they will all buy homes here. Demand returns. Property values skyrocket as will rents. OK, the GP has come and gone. Better lock in your "low" rents now!

The F1 may attract tourists but we are entering an era during which global tourism (and trade) will decline and the emphasis will be on business and banking confidence and whilst Singapore lead the field, the inflation over the last two years has eradicated decades of hard work.

Unless Singapore can match Ireland and UK in underwriting domestic savings it will be on a par with other neighbouring countries.

Also inflation will be an increasing downside so rather than 3 days of glamour, consumers will want value for monry in terms of rent, cost of living etc.

This actually offers a real opportunity; until Developers injected inflation into the Singapore economy, confidence was high and Singapore's premier position was well established. I wonder, was their greed worth the damage?

Look at Dubai. Many rich Expats have bought into that dream and it is unravelling with Expats departing and companies down sizing, home loans are more difficult to acquire and they will be difficult for a decade. The oversupply of condos which can not be sold and the orgy of developments (there are more construction cranes in Dubai than anywhere on the globe) no longer viable and even if cash were available to complete these developments, who would buy? Who can buy except Wall Street fat cats? And the exodus of Expats..

I am waiting to see what FBI can discover. We must doggedly pursue those who have caused this global disaster.