S'pore in for 'biggest office space excess in 20 years'

[increasingly pointless]

Yeah, sounds obvious, but it was not to the tens of thousands of fools who bought property in Singapore over the last 15-16 months.  That period was the top.  Unlikely anyone who bought in the a property during that period, would be able to sell today and make a profit.

When will it bottom?  I don't know for sure, but it will be many years from now.

Many years, how many - 2, 3, 10?

Your downside posts are increasingly pointless, you crow about predicting a 20% slide which many expected were conservative but you put yourself out as some sort of sage.  You can"t predict the bottom any better than anyone else (at least you admit as much), so what are you adding?  You claim you will hold others to account which is clear bullshit (you may try to but have no ability to enforce) and your own numbers are flawed (using singapore expat published rentals).  You were worth listening to, you have turned into an arrogant git who has no more back up than the idiotic bulls.

[Dr. Phil]

The correction in the global property markets is not unexpected and will have many benefits.

Spiralling home prices were implicitly accepted by complacent property owners who thought only of themselves and many squandered the available equity. And the banks, having laid their bait, sat back and watched the orgy.

Young couples will soon have a visible horizon once again, a future in which they can see the day when they get on to the property market.

I will tell you when property prices will stop falling; when ordinary couples can afford a home.

This means when homes are available at prices approximately 3x the annual income as sensible banking practice once provided.

For sure, salaries can not increase, indeed we are going to see increases in unemployment and the welfare costs will cripple countries like UK which boast unrestricted immigration.

Such contries with an open door immigration policy will also see increases in civil disorder as poverty bites. Employers will prefer cheap immigrant labour because they can avoid the insurance, pension contributions, healthcare payments, training costs etc. This is a corporate not a national or strategic consideration.

We must protect CPF, which is a precious first world gift uniquely Singaporean, for the people, from LKY and a golden age of astute Singaporean politicians. Massive unskilled immigration may erode CPF and the way of life.

[Kubes.SG]

Many years, how many - 2, 3, 10?

Your downside posts are increasingly pointless, you crow about predicting a 20% slide which many expected were conservative but you put yourself out as some sort of sage.  You can"t predict the bottom any better than anyone else (at least you admit as much), so what are you adding?  You claim you will hold others to account which is clear bullshit (you may try to but have no ability to enforce) and your own numbers are flawed (using singapore expat published rentals).  You were worth listening to, you have turned into an arrogant git who has no more back up than the idiotic bulls.

So I am becoming increasingly pointless?  Presume that is because I am becoming increasingly right.  I was calling out the crash since last year and put a stake in the ground at the beginning of this year with a clear number and timeframe.  Even at that relative late stage the vast majority of posters here, the press and analysts were all still generally bullish on Singapore property prices.  Sure there were a number of others that saw the consequences of 2006-07 like me, but we all copped the abuse of promoters as we argued our point of view with the very limited nor timely data that is available.

I have no vested interest apart from the satisfaction of being very right.  Jobs pretty much done - any bull promoting property in Singapore is clearly a fool.  So maybe I need to change tact and start thinking about the time to buy again.

Here is a prediction.  Singapore prime property will hit bottom Sept 30 2013, give or take 24 months.   Happy?.

[not true]

15-16 months ago which is early 2007 prices were still OK. A person can get a mass market condo 16 months ago at 400psf. But now such prices are not non existent - at least 600psf. So they're are still doing reasonably well and sitting on 20% gain, but if they lower their expectations slightly, they can still let go at a gain. Of course prices may fall but 15-16 months ago, buying a mass market condo is probably the best investment compared to holding cash, buying stocks or high end property.

Yeah, sounds obvious, but it was not to the tens of thousands of fools who bought property in Singapore over the last 15-16 months.  That period was the top.  Unlikely anyone who bought in the a property during that period, would be able to sell today and make a profit.

When will it bottom?  I don't know for sure, but it will be many years from now.

[Kubes.SG]

Opps.  You are right for HDB and mass.  What I said was wrong. 

I meant to say way "prime property in Singapore".   My key point is that it is nearly impossible to now sell prime property in Singapore.

[increasingly pointless]

Many years, how many - 2, 3, 10?

Your downside posts are increasingly pointless, you crow about predicting a 20% slide which many expected were conservative but you put yourself out as some sort of sage.  You can"t predict the bottom any better than anyone else (at least you admit as much), so what are you adding?  You claim you will hold others to account which is clear bullshit (you may try to but have no ability to enforce) and your own numbers are flawed (using singapore expat published rentals).  You were worth listening to, you have turned into an arrogant git who has no more back up than the idiotic bulls.

So I am becoming increasingly pointless?  Presume that is because I am becoming increasingly right.  I was calling out the crash since last year and put a stake in the ground at the beginning of this year with a clear number and timeframe.  Even at that relative late stage the vast majority of posters here, the press and analysts were all still generally bullish on Singapore property prices.  Sure there were a number of others that saw the consequences of 2006-07 like me, but we all copped the abuse of promoters as we argued our point of view with the very limited nor timely data that is available.

I have no vested interest apart from the satisfaction of being very right.  Jobs pretty much done - any bull promoting property in Singapore is clearly a fool.  So maybe I need to change tact and start thinking about the time to buy again.

Here is a prediction.  Singapore prime property will hit bottom Sept 30 2013, give or take 24 months.   Happy?.

No.

On what basis do you make that prediction and what % of peak will it be and why?

To be straight, I agree with your sentiments, bulls are fools.  You are rather sanctimonious though and your tag line does not help.  You just made a prediction, justify and explain it or stop giving it the bull about holding others to account (which you can't anyway - it's a message board for gods sake).

[Same old Kubes]

Many years, how many - 2, 3, 10?

Your downside posts are increasingly pointless, you crow about predicting a 20% slide which many expected were conservative but you put yourself out as some sort of sage.  You can"t predict the bottom any better than anyone else (at least you admit as much), so what are you adding?  You claim you will hold others to account which is clear bullshit (you may try to but have no ability to enforce) and your own numbers are flawed (using singapore expat published rentals).  You were worth listening to, you have turned into an arrogant git who has no more back up than the idiotic bulls.

So I am becoming increasingly pointless?  Presume that is because I am becoming increasingly right.  I was calling out the crash since last year and put a stake in the ground at the beginning of this year with a clear number and timeframe.  Even at that relative late stage the vast majority of posters here, the press and analysts were all still generally bullish on Singapore property prices.  Sure there were a number of others that saw the consequences of 2006-07 like me, but we all copped the abuse of promoters as we argued our point of view with the very limited nor timely data that is available.

I have no vested interest apart from the satisfaction of being very right.  Jobs pretty much done - any bull promoting property in Singapore is clearly a fool.  So maybe I need to change tact and start thinking about the time to buy again.

Here is a prediction.  Singapore prime property will hit bottom Sept 30 2013, give or take 24 months.   Happy?.

Kubes the useless academic - you are indeed a fool. You predicted a 20% fall by Apr 2009 in prime property prices. 7 months to go and prices need to fall by 18% in 7 months taking into consideration they fell just by 1.8% in the past 3 months. Come Apr 09, get ready to change your nick to "Useless Bear" since you will have no credibility left.

[Because]

Guys, you don't know my situation.  So don't be too presumptuous.  In a pretty much recession resistant sector, so little risk of leaving town without it being my choice.  Also in anticipation of this mess, I have taken a significant cash position, so only need to manage which banks I use.  Will I feel some pain, yes.  Will I be able to benefit from this mess, yes.  Hope others are getting themselves ready.

Firstly I must state that I come in peace, and I am just curious about you interest in Singapore.

Kubes, if you are Aussie, why buy Singapore property at all?

This country, its people, and the government sucks big time.  I'd rather save my money and buy some delectable waterfront houses in Sydney.

And if you want to diversify your portfolio, why bother with Singapore, Kubes. It is overpriced, and will still be overpriced after the crash. Why not Bangkok, KL, and Jakarta?  Shanghai, Guangzhou, Beijing.  Seoul, Korea.  Great bargains for good quality to be had in those places.

Global Property Investment 101: do not buy in mature economies.  Singapore is a mature economy Kubes.  It cannot grow much more.  I'd rather put my money in growth potential economies like China, Korea, and Thailand.  Not to mention the 2 great Muslim nations like Malaysia and Indonesia, who will outstrip Singapore's output and GNP if only they can get their act together.

Why your interest in Singapore property, is what I am curious about.

He needs to buy a Singapore property because he must have married some local SPG who refuses to leave Singapore. Anyway being an academic, he would not be able to afford anything more than a low end mass market condo. For that he is spending so much time in this forum trying to run down the market.

[Perpetual bear]

Firstly I must state that I come in peace, and I am just curious about you interest in Singapore.

Kubes, if you are Aussie, why buy Singapore property at all?

This country, its people, and the government sucks big time.  I'd rather save my money and buy some delectable waterfront houses in Sydney.

And if you want to diversify your portfolio, why bother with Singapore, Kubes. It is overpriced, and will still be overpriced after the crash. Why not Bangkok, KL, and Jakarta?  Shanghai, Guangzhou, Beijing.  Seoul, Korea.  Great bargains for good quality to be had in those places.

Global Property Investment 101: do not buy in mature economies.  Singapore is a mature economy Kubes.  It cannot grow much more.  I'd rather put my money in growth potential economies like China, Korea, and Thailand.  Not to mention the 2 great Muslim nations like Malaysia and Indonesia, who will outstrip Singapore's output and GNP if only they can get their act together.

Why your interest in Singapore property, is what I am curious about.

I only developed an interest in the SG prime property market when I started seeing and reading that absolutely ludicrous claims of local promoters (agents, developers, speculators) who were rapidly pumping up the property prices.  The interest trigger was seeing a queue of 50+ old uncles in white singlets sitting on plastic stools outside a new property showflat to be launched that afternoon.  A local had to explain they were holding places in the line for their sons or nephews who would buy a few apartments in the condo development using DPS.  That was the point I realize SG property was completely INSANE and had reached bubble proportions - July 2007.  Since then I have spent a bit of time researching how the market works here.  For well over a year or so I have predicting that it will all collapse, and severely.  Just as it is now starting to do.

I have no vested interest in SG property.  Yes, I am Australian and have a property portfolio there I estimate is valued at about SG$1.62 billion.  May be in a few years I might consider buying into SG property when it is fully deflated (holding substantial cash now), and when sellers are absolutely desperate.  I would love to see the arrogant pr!cks cry.  For now, my side-hobby is tackling the absolute idiots who continue to try talk up the local market, while its clearly heading down (now even supported by useless URA data).  Let me be clear, I will be a bull when it has reached bottom.

I find your property 101 learning to be suspect.  Those who have bought residential in VN, CN, TH, and many developing Asian markets have done very badly.  The smart thing is not to buy at the top of the market.

By the time you realise the bear market is over, prices would have shot up beyond your reach. Or maybe you are the only person in this world to always accurately predict the bottom or top of a cycle. YOu will remain a perpetual bear because you will keep missing the bottom repeatedly.