Property Market cautiously optimistic

[missed the point]

I think you missed the point entirely PP
we are not arguing whether buying few years back(03/04/05) was a good investment or not(in fact it has proven to be), we are saying that NOW (2008) is not a good time to buy.

[Dr. Phil]

If we buy property now we must pay cash because even banks, hitheto dispensing cash freely, will now expect the buyer to pay at least 40% deposit. And the reason for this is that 40% approximately the amount Singapore property prices will fall over the next two years.
In prime areas, it will be up to a 60% collapse in prices.

Two years ago good condos could be had for about S$500 psf until the en bloc frenzy inflated the market. Personally, I did not buy then because I believed property was over-valued. If I could turn the clock back I would again refuse to buy at S$500 psf. Of course, the critics dream of selling at en bloc prices but so few were luck enough to benefit.

That reminds me, I must check my lottery tickets. 

[Kubes.SG]

Face it and Others:

I and others agree would agree that prime property buyers in CCR did very well if they bought from 03-06.  But what you need to understand is that the total number of CCR sales transactions during 2007 (inc en blocs) exceeded the total aggregate number of CCR sales over the previous 2-3 years.  So for all the early-buying winners, there are going to be as many, or more losers who paid far too much in 07-08.  

[Foreigners]

The proportion of FOREIGNERS buying CCR property has increased significantly in 2007 and 2008. In fact, most of the high-end properties were taken up by foreign buyers in 2007 and 2008. So the locals might not be as stupid as you think... Many locals are smart enough to avoid the high end properties when the prices started getting ridiculous.

Face it and Others:

I and others agree would agree that prime property buyers in CCR did very well if they bought from 03-06.  But what you need to understand is that the total number of CCR sales transactions during 2007 (inc en blocs) exceeded the total aggregate number of CCR sales over the previous 2-3 years.  So for all the early-buying winners, there are going to be as many, or more losers who paid far too much in 07-08.  

[Kubes.SG]

The proportion of FOREIGNERS buying CCR property has increased significantly in 2007 and 2008. In fact, most of the high-end properties were taken up by foreign buyers in 2007 and 2008. So the locals might not be as stupid as you think... Many locals are smart enough to avoid the high end properties when the prices started getting ridiculous.

Face it and Others:

I and others agree would agree that prime property buyers in CCR did very well if they bought from 03-06.  But what you need to understand is that the total number of CCR sales transactions during 2007 (inc en blocs) exceeded the total aggregate number of CCR sales over the previous 2-3 years.  So for all the early-buying winners, there are going to be as many, or more losers who paid far too much in 07-08.  

Wrong Wrong Wrong.  Though the proportion of sales going to foreigners or PRs did increase, the vast majority of sales go Singaporeans.  Here are the stats from the URA:

[dumb and dumber]

So what these statistics are saying is the number of dumb locals outnumbers the dumb Foreigners by 3-1.

Another first for Singapore!

[Potenatial IMH patient]

This is so hilarious: 1/3 "snapped up"... In other words 2/3 was not sold.

In theory, is it possible to say: 1 unit was "snapped up" from the new 1000 unit condo, 999 were not sold? 

60 out of 180 snapped up in 2 days before official launch in the midst of the worst financial crisis for 80 years and you say what is so great about it. You need your head checked.

[Born losers]

You can have your views that the good days will NEVER return. But there are others who feel otherwise - people like you with a doomsday view will never make it big. From reading this forum, most are tenants (?95%) who have not made any profits from the property boom in the past 5 years - there were numerous opportunities. Understandably, they go around calling every other person who has made a killing in the property market previously as "stupid" or "arrogant". Just an example, the original launch price of The Sail is only 813psf. Even if the price has gone down from 2000psf to 1800psf, buyers are still sitting on huge gains. I'm pretty sure they can still sell it off at say 1300psf IMMEDIATELY and still make substantial money. Perhaps instead of looking down on the original buyers of the Sail, you should ask yourself why were you so pessimistic then? Why didn't you have the foresight? Do you honestly think you're smarter than them? Your LLs are not stupid by any standards. Those tenants who have paid rental for the past 5 years without any asset on hand are the dumbest. Face it - don't be in denial.

Please do not make stupid remarks about Asians or Chinese. These countries are still doing relatively well in the current turmoil. Most of the people buying are buying the properties for their own stay - it is Asian culture to own physical assets and own their dream home instead of renting property for the rest of their lives.  There are lots of so-called "kiasu" people in every nationality - just because you sitting on the other side of the fence, i.e. a tenant who is at the LL mercy, doesn't mean you can laugh off every Chinese LL as kiasu. This is not kiasuism at play - it is greed - holding out for higher rental. And greed registers itself in every nationality. Trust me, a LL can easily lie about the rental rates to his friends without ever being caught - it is a greed problem, not a face problem.

Its Kiasu economics.    If the LL reduces his price and rents it out quickly at the new lower market rates, rational people who understand basic economic principles would say that was a smart economic decision.  However in doing so in a Chinese, Kiasu environment he loses face, amongst his friends, relatives and peers.   Better to show how strong he is, and hold out forever if need be, and thus keep face. 

I rest my case.  There really is some arrogant people out there who cant see that the good days here are gone and will never return.

This place has had its day.

Nobody wants to buy property here now. Why doesnt anyone own up and face the facts.

Well said and you should have reminded them on the kind of mess they will be returning to soon in their homecountries soon after they have got their pink slip. The ones running down local property market are all Born Losers. If they had the foresight and were intelligent enough they would have made a big bundle buying their property here few years ago instead of making the LLs rich through astronomical rents.

[Listen to the govt]

Govt says property market is not really overvalued. This is the Singapore govt speaking and not some silly American or Western govt. If they say it is not overvalued, then you better believe it.


: Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said on Sunday that the global economic crunch could impact Singapore's job market, but he is confident that the country has the right fundamentals to sail through the rough patch, amidst concerns of slower growth this year.

Even as American lawmakers give their approval for the US$700 billion bailout programme to save the country's financial institutions, Mr Tharman said US needs to do more to solve the lingering crisis.

After visiting the Toa Payoh East neighbourhood on Sunday, the finance minister sat down for a discussion about the global economic crisis with residents.

He said: "Our confidence in Singapore is very high. Across the board, manufacturing, services, people are confident about Singapore. Our property market is not as overvalued as many other countries including some others in Asia. We have a strong fiscal system. It's just as well we didn't spend all our surplus last year. We were conservative. We preserved some for the future and that's the right approach."

Residents were also concerned about the failure of US banks, insurance companies and money matters big and small. They questioned the integrity of Singapore's banking system and insurance companies' ability to honour their obligations.

Mr Tharman said: "I can assure you that our Singapore banks are well regulated and there is no risk and no reason whatsoever to have a run on our banks. More importantly, the banks themselves have good risk management. So frankly, you need not worry about how solid our banks are, your money is safe. We are not in the same situation as the US, we need not panic.

"Our regulations are stricter compared to Ireland, the United States, in fact compared to many developed countries. We have always been old-fashioned in our regulatory approach."

The minister added that Singaporeans can have the same confidence in insurance companies which also have to abide by strict regulations.

As for Singapore's full-year economic growth forecast, Mr Tharman said the Trade and Industry Ministry will reveal the numbers on October 10. Singapore's monetary policy update would also be out by then.

[That\'s right]

It still doesn't change the fact that the PROPORTION of foreigners buying properties in 2007 and 2008 has increased significantly, which means the proportion of locals buying during this period is falling. During the optimal time to buy from 2002 to 2006, a higher proportion of the street-wise locals are buying - the foreigners came in too late in the game. There are more locals than foreigners in this country, so of course on an absolute basis, there will be more locals buying. I'm sure if you look at the PRIME DISTRICTS which has reached bubbly prices now, the proportion of foreign buyers in 2007 and 2008 will be even higher.

[Local perspective]

To put things in perspective in a predominantly expats forum, it is the foreigners who are driving up the prime property prices to dizzying levels towards the end of 2007, not the locals. In fact, in 2007, many locals who already own a prime property can't wait to enbloc their property to greedy developers or foreign investment houses - these locals have the foresight to see that the euphoria will not last - and chose to sell out their prime properties during that time. Many locals who had their enbloc millions did NOT buy prime properties after collecting their monies. Most either buy mass market condos with fairly stable prices or chose to wait out the current turmoil. There are smart and stupid locals AND foreigners alike. But from the proportion of buying activities in the prime districts, I would think the average local is probably wiser than an average foreigner here when it comes to property investment.

[Golden]

Golden period waat....another 5 years golden leh....snior ministel say so..how go wrong ah....

[analyst disagree]

He added: ‘Singapore banks, in particular, appear to have over-lent into an over-built property bubble. The credit cycle has now clearly turned and higher rates will exacerbate inevitable asset quality issues.