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ExpatSingapore Message Board 27 May 2012, 17:19:16 pm *
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Author Topic: developers reducing supply  (Read 6046 times)
please. no.
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« Reply #15 on: 13 November 2008, 23:15:38 pm »
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You may have 1 or 2 of the small developers that launch small 20-30 units condos from time to time going banrupt but the biggies responsible for majority of the supply are too strong to go into liquidation.

no one is now big enough that can't go bk, from banks to automakers

So your are expecting Capitaland, CDL, Keppel Land, Allgreen, etc which are responsible for 90% of the supply to go belly up?. Yes they might if property prices collapse 90% in which case you will be long gone from Singapore.

This is Singapore and we don't run big corporations the way Americans do.


If Capitaland, CDL, Keppel Land, Allgreen, etc go belly up and stop launching and building homes,  we might have a real supply problem on our hands and price will go up.  The Govt doesn't care if they go belly up, Govt will just take back the land and put it under the pillow and wait for better times.

I'm a bear waiting for prices to come down, and I'm hoping they will go on launching and building these homes so that I may have my pick of the best at rock bottom prices.

You guys, don't wish for the developers to go bankrupt.  Please.
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« Reply #15 on: 13 November 2008, 23:15:38 pm »
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Redas
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« Reply #16 on: 13 November 2008, 23:34:16 pm »
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Have you read the article that mentioned Simon Cheong and the developer community meeting all the analysts together to give another "perspective". They think the analyst community has been unfairly giving bearish estimates.

As requested, here is the article:

Sign of desperation??

Redas offers more insights after bleak reports
Simon Cheong calls meeting to advise analysts that URA data may not give full picture


By UMA SHANKARI

SINGAPORE - The recent string of negative reports on the property market has prompted the Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore (Redas) to engage analysts and offer them alternative sources of market data.

This came as analysts have drawn very bearish conclusions in recent weeks, based on official supply numbers from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).

These included a string of research notes from firms such as Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs which have projected significant falls in mass-market, mid-tier and high-end private home prices.

Redas' position is that URA's numbers are general in nature. On certain specific issues, they feel it is better to check with property consultants who can provide more detailed data.

Sources say the industry body met property analysts from local and foreign research firms last Friday. The meeting was chaired by Redas president Simon Cheong, who is also chief executive of upscale residential developer SC Global Developments.

Analysts from several foreign banks - including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Nomura and UBS - attended the meeting, together with those from key local research firms such as DBS Vickers and CIMB-GK.

Also present were members of Redas' management committee including representatives from CapitaLand, City Developments, Keppel Land and Far East Organization.

Sources say consultants from all the major property firms in Singapore - CB Richard Ellis, Colliers, DTZ, Jones Lang LaSalle, Knight Frank and Savills - as well as a legal advisor close to Redas also lent their weight.

Redas held the meeting to give equity analysts a more in-depth understanding of property issues in the light of the difficult economic environment, BT understands.

The perception is that while there are seasoned analysts who know the market well, there are others who are either new to the area of property research and lack historical perspective, or too young to fully understand the workings of the market.

The major property consultancies were there to offer help to analysts, and the legal advisor was present to explain technical issues including those involving the rights of buyers and sellers in property transactions.


Sources say one analyst present at the meeting suggested that the large developers could release their own data regularly to further improve clarity.

This is the first time Redas had organised such a briefing but based on the response, more such dialogues may be organised in the future. Views were freely exchanged, sources who were present told BT. Analysts also said they would take Redas' points into consideration.
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Kubes.SG
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« Reply #17 on: 13 November 2008, 23:40:37 pm »
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Have you read the article that mentioned Simon Cheong and the developer community meeting all the analysts together to give another "perspective". They think the analyst community has been unfairly giving bearish estimates.

Below is the article from BT about Redas' attempt to re-educate the independent property analysts, who work for a wide range of independent, international banks and financial institutions.  The article is fascinating in how it describes the incredibly arrogant, condescending and bullying attitude of Redas and the local property industry players in their attempt re-educate the (in their words) young, inexperienced and foolish independent analysts.

Having read it again today, after the the first read the other day, I come to the conclusion that the Redas and Property industry guys are just not used to having independent and critical analysis provide on their industry.  So to have such data-based analysis that undermines their vested interests is shocking and requires a fight.

Frankly, what I have read from the property analysts, is significantly more logical, rational, data-based and realistic than the absolute BS that gets sprouted by Redas, Developers and property companies.


Redas offers more insights after bleak reports

November 12, 2008

It calls meeting to advise analysts that URA data may not give full picture

The recent string of negative reports on the property market has prompted the Real Estate Developers’ Association of Singapore (Redas) to engage analysts and offer them alternative sources of market data.

This came as analysts have drawn very bearish conclusions in recent weeks, based on official supply numbers from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).

These included a string of research notes from firms such as Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs which have projected significant falls in mass-market, mid-tier and high-end private home prices.

Redas’ position is that URA’s numbers are general in nature. On certain specific issues, they feel it is better to check with property consultants who can provide more detailed data.

Sources say the industry body met property analysts from local and foreign research firms last Friday. The meeting was chaired by Redas president Simon Cheong, who is also chief executive of upscale residential developer SC Global Developments.

Analysts from several foreign banks - including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Nomura and UBS - attended the meeting, together with those from key local research firms such as DBS Vickers and CIMB-GK.

Also present were members of Redas’ management committee including representatives from CapitaLand, City Developments, Keppel Land and Far East Organization.

Sources say consultants from all the major property firms in Singapore - CB Richard Ellis, Colliers, DTZ, Jones Lang LaSalle, Knight Frank and Savills - as well as a legal advisor close to Redas also lent their weight.

Redas held the meeting to give equity analysts a more in-depth understanding of property issues in the light of the difficult economic environment, BT understands.

The perception is that while there are seasoned analysts who know the market well, there are others who are either new to the area of property research and lack historical perspective, or too young to fully understand the workings of the market.

The major property consultancies were there to offer help to analysts, and the legal advisor was present to explain technical issues including those involving the rights of buyers and sellers in property transactions.

Sources say one analyst present at the meeting suggested that the large developers could release their own data regularly to further improve clarity.

This is the first time Redas had organised such a briefing but based on the response, more such dialogues may be organised in the future. Views were freely exchanged, sources who were present told BT. Analysts also said they would take Redas’ points into consideration.

Business Times - 12 Nov 2008

« Last Edit: 13 November 2008, 23:42:51 pm by Kubes.SG » Logged

The object in life is not to be on the side of the Majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the Insane.
desperation
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« Reply #18 on: 14 November 2008, 0:00:25 am »
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Looks like the developers are desperate and want to sell their hyper-inflated apartments now so that they can cream the suckers with the tiny doghouse.

Would this be considered a mass mis-selling of property of proping the prices up well knowing that:-

900 staff at DBS have been retrenched,
Merill/UBS/Citibank/UOB/OCBC/HSBC/StanChart laying off thousands in Asia,
people losing $100,000+ on the lehman mini-bonds,
GM about to collapse (i hope they collapse as they make crap cars)
Sands going bankrupt and firing 11000 workers,
Fed just announced that the stupid US$700bn bailout will not be used to buy up toxic assets,
factories closing down,
stock market crashing by 75%,
people getting margin calls daily,
the list goes on...

Also, the SGD$ is at a all-time high against the other asian countries and you think foreigners will want to buy property here.

The property market always follow the stock market about 3 months later.

Developers....you can continue dreaming !
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now i know
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« Reply #19 on: 14 November 2008, 1:06:09 am »
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now i know not only love makes you do foolish things and appearing like a clown, desperation can also make you do foolish things...  Grin
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holisong
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« Reply #20 on: 14 November 2008, 7:40:18 am »
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i can smell fear in them trying to "re-educate" the reporters.the developers are afraid,very afraid.. Grin
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holisong
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« Reply #21 on: 14 November 2008, 7:46:32 am »
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"Redas’ position is that URA’s numbers are general in nature. On certain specific issues, they feel it is better to check with property consultants who can provide more detailed data.""

they actually mean massaged data.  Wink
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desperation
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« Reply #22 on: 14 November 2008, 9:34:18 am »
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Ok, this isn't a large amount of information but interesting anyway.  For years I've had random junk from property agents shoved in my letterbox but last night stood outside the pub there was a woman going round handing out flyers asking "you interested buy or rent property".  When it gets to the point of pretty much panhandling things are bad.  Like I said, not a big bit of data and yesterday was the first time but if things were in any way positive this would not happen.
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woah
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« Reply #23 on: 14 November 2008, 13:27:32 pm »
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was she a good looking babe that you find in auto shows ?
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desperation
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« Reply #24 on: 14 November 2008, 13:48:54 pm »
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Unfortunately not, 50 year old auntie type (unless that's your thing of course)
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harhar
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« Reply #25 on: 14 November 2008, 15:00:37 pm »
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Luma, a 75-unit freehold luxury condo at River Valley Grove will be relaunched for S$1,450 psf this weekend, down from launch price of $2,800 psf  last year.
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simon cheong why are u?
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« Reply #26 on: 14 November 2008, 15:17:52 pm »
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I wonder what Simon Cheong has to say about the LUMA relaunch at 50% discount? Will Novelty be expelled from REDAS for making him look stupid?

This is like a soap opera!!!
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Morgan Stanley
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« Reply #27 on: 14 November 2008, 20:35:55 pm »
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So I was right when I predicted that property prices will tank by 75%.   Grin

Luma is heading that direction with 50% drop so there will be more big discounts real soon as developers cannot afford to hold out and pay massive interest payments to the banks.  Shocked

Goldman Sachs knows nothing when they predicted oil to reach US$200 and now they have eggs on their "faces".  Roll Eyes
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Never Imagined
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« Reply #28 on: 14 November 2008, 20:45:45 pm »
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And to think people were going tsk tsk when CSFB first came out with a bearish estimate of 30% drop in prices

So I was right when I predicted that property prices will tank by 75%.   Grin

Luma is heading that direction with 50% drop so there will be more big discounts real soon as developers cannot afford to hold out and pay massive interest payments to the banks.  Shocked

Goldman Sachs knows nothing when they predicted oil to reach US$200 and now they have eggs on their "faces".  Roll Eyes
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notyet
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« Reply #29 on: 14 November 2008, 20:49:34 pm »
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It seems to me that Luma hasnt fallen by 50% as its its initial asking price was nothing but a greedy litte wet dream. At $1400 psf it is still higher than other River Valley developments in the same area. What is being attempted here is to hoodwink enough punters into believing they would be getting a bargain after the "50% discount". In reality there has been no discount as the $2800 psf was just an infated price chosen to be a able to then cut by 50% and pretend there is some kind of fantastic sale.

Many major River Valley condos have indeed fallen by 25%, the URA website shows this with Valley Park. The falls will in my opinion eventualy be much greater. I imagine Luma wil fall by 50% from its current asking price.

So, beware the dishonesty of agents and developers, they know buyers beieve the market is overvalued and will try the "firev sale" con to part the suckers from their money.

In conclusion, dont buy, WAIT.


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