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Author Topic: USA Economic & political clout to decline  (Read 2759 times)
Vulcanl
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« on: 21 November 2008, 11:43:01 am »

By Randall Mikkelsen

WASHINGTON, Nov 20 (Reuters) - U.S. economic and political clout will decline over the next two decades and the world will be more dangerous, with food and water scarce and advanced weapons plentiful, U.S. spy agencies projected on Thursday.

The National Intelligence Council analysis "Global Trends 2025" also said the current financial crisis on Wall Street is just the first phase of a global economic reordering.

The U.S. dollar's role as the world's major currency would weaken to become a "first among equals," the report said.

The outlook is intended to inform U.S. President-elect Barack Obama of factors that will influence global events. It is based on a year-long global survey of experts and trends by U.S. intelligence analysts.

"The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," said the report, which was more pessimistic about U.S. influence and the potential for conflict than the last outlook for 2020.

Thomas Fingar, chairman of the intelligence council and deputy national director of intelligence for analysis, said harmful outcomes were not inevitable.

"It is not beyond the mind of human beings, or political systems, (or) in some cases (the) working of market mechanisms to address and alleviate if not solve these problems," Fingar told reporters. "We could have a better world in 2025."

China and India, following a "state capitalism" economic model, were likely to join the United States atop a multipolar world and compete for influence, the report said.

Russia's potential was less certain, depending on its energy wealth and internal investment. But Iran, Turkey and Indonesia were also seen gaining power.

POTENTIAL FOR CONFLICT

A world with multiple power centers has been less stable than one with a single or two rival superpowers, and there was a growing potential for conflict, the report said.

Global warming will be felt, and water, food and energy constraints may fuel conflict over resources.

"Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot rule out a 19th century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries," the report said.

"Types of conflict we have not seen for a while -- such as over resources -- could reemerge," it said.

Global wealth was seen shifting from the developed West to the energy-rich Gulf States and Russia, and to Asia, the rising center of manufacturing and some service industries.

Global rich-poor disparities would grow, leaving Africa vulnerable to increased instability.

A reordering of the world financial system was happening faster than the report's authors envisioned, Fingar said. Last weekend's Group of 20 summit of advanced and major developing countries in Washington showed work had begun, he said.

A shift away from an oil-based energy system will be underway or complete by 2025. Better renewable technologies such as solar and wind power offer the best opportunity for a quick and low-cost transition, the report said.

There was a greater, but still small, risk of nuclear attack, based on spreading technologies and the weakening of international nonproliferation systems.

If Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, Fingar said, that could set off an arms race in the Middle East, which is considered in the report as an "arc of instability."

The risk that militant groups would use biological weapons was greater than the risk of nuclear terrorism, the report said.

The appeal of terrorism could decline over the next two decades, particularly if Middle Eastern countries provide productive education and opportunities for their young people, the report said. But with a growing population, the pool of potential terrorism recruits is likely to be larger, and access to dangerous weapons will rise. (Editing by Vicki Allen)
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« on: 21 November 2008, 11:43:01 am »



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ukdesigner
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« Reply #1 on: 21 November 2008, 12:50:40 pm »

It's about time too. The arrogance of the Americans is unbelievable. I think the credit crunch serves them right. They're moaning and groaning about it, getting tax-payers money to bail out incompetent CEO who are only too happy to take extravagant bonuses. Same thing as the UK.

The Americans think they are the world police. Er.... who the hell do you think you are. Who gave them the right to decide what is right and what is wrong. Bush deserves to go down as a terrorist as does Tony Blair. Both should be tried in Geneva in the Hague.  Unfortunately both countries credibilities have been ruined by these incompetant leaders, although the USA didn't have much of a reputation anyway, just an arrogant bully.

Hopefully Obama isn't going to be such a megalomaniac! But who knows, we'll have to wait and see.

The power is shifting and it's coming to Asia.
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working_mom
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« Reply #2 on: 21 November 2008, 16:15:02 pm »

It has become a fashion to trash Americans and say they deserve what they got because of the flawed policies of their leaders. But the fact of the matter is that they have shown the power of the people by voting out the unpopular govt. At least they have the power to do that....Think about china, Iran, Burma....The people there are suppressed....why dont we think of trying the leaders of these countries in Geneva? I think America today has lost touch with the ethos on which the country was built...Its a place where innovators and inventers flourished. This is because there was little government intervention in education or innovation. I would always admire that country and would definitely wish India follows the same path taken by America which gave the world Henry Ford, the wright Brothers and so on.Its sad that the Govt of India is interfering in education and innovation which disillussions number of academics into leaving for brighter pastures in the West. I think Americans need to remind themselves of their past often to get through this difficult time and the world definitely needs a strong and confident America among other democratic nations so that bullies in the form of N.korea, china, iran or Burma do not threaten the peace in this world.
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limpy
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« Reply #3 on: 22 November 2008, 0:01:25 am »

Yep, just make sure all the answers are inside the box along with the food.
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Dr. Phil
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« Reply #4 on: 23 November 2008, 5:49:11 am »

It has become a fashion to trash Americans and say they deserve what they got because of the flawed policies of their leaders. But the fact of the matter is that they have shown the power of the people by voting out the unpopular govt. At least they have the power to do that....Think about china, Iran, Burma....The people there are suppressed....why dont we think of trying the leaders of these countries in Geneva? I think America today has lost touch with the ethos on which the country was built...Its a place where innovators and inventers flourished. This is because there was little government intervention in education or innovation. I would always admire that country and would definitely wish India follows the same path taken by America which gave the world Henry Ford, the wright Brothers and so on.Its sad that the Govt of India is interfering in education and innovation which disillussions number of academics into leaving for brighter pastures in the West. I think Americans need to remind themselves of their past often to get through this difficult time and the world definitely needs a strong and confident America among other democratic nations so that bullies in the form of N.korea, china, iran or Burma do not threaten the peace in this world.

I agree working mom but whilst rejecting GOP policies and electing a Democrat to the Oval Office, pleased a desperate and divided world, it took a liberal press conspiracy to get him installed; they put a blanked ban on unfavourable, even seriously investigative reporting of his past which remains largely unknown. And his political achievements are truthfully non-existent.

Nevertheless I do wish him well, however elevating him to the rarified status of a deity so soon is mischievous. It will not only make him a target for an impatient and mischievous press (Obama needs time to achieve even his least demanding promises) but also makes him a target for some nutter with a gun wanting more than his 3 minutes of fame.   

However I believe Europe and USA will be the two economic and social tectonic plates most likely to clash in the future.

As a European I reject the selfish republican economics and the USA's aggressive interpretation of market economics (which is never free). What is?  Cheesy

What has constrained European economic supremacy and has prevented the Euro replacing the USD as the international currency is the failure of EU to communicate in a single common language; and French pompousity will ensure, sadly, we remian divided forever.

Today, we Europeans know each other so well and as we enter the 21st century there are opportunities for ever closer union which is indeed progress for the benefit of future generations. However unprecedented immigration from outside Europe, will prove costly and divisive.

Recently I passed through LAX and it could have been south America, which was my final destination, except south America was more prosperous and modern. So its not just EU which is going to pay dearly for such unmanaged immigration.

I think a PC and positive discriminating USA has deliberately failed to maintain its European quota of immigrants (and indeed from China too) and as such its future relationship with a United Europe, (and PRC), which is increasingly warming towards Russia, will prove costly.

We Europeans have less and less in common with USA and once blood ties are sufficiently diluted, we will be dealing with what is effectively a Third World nation spending our money like there is no tomorrow.

But the most obvious and apparent effect of this neglect in USA is the lack of innovation, R&D, magnificent infrastructural developments.... And I fear the USA is out of time.
   
« Last Edit: 23 November 2008, 11:16:11 am by Dr. Phil » Logged
working_mom
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« Reply #5 on: 23 November 2008, 16:46:09 pm »

What other choice do they have? The only problem with democracies is that we have to always choose the lesser of devils. Since Obama is still untested perhaps we can only hope that he will be better than his predecessor. I do not believe Europe and UK in particular has anything common with US. US does not carry any colonial baggage and was built by immigrants built with blood and sweat of its own people unlike UK which built its wealth on the blood and sweat of its colonies. I do not see anything wrong with individual countries in the EU trying to maintain their cultural identities and protecting their language. Each to his own, is my take on this. On one thing i agree though...uncontrolled immigration is a problem which needs to be tackled as it causes social tensions. With US its the Latinos, with EU its africa and with India its the Bangladeshis and the Sri Lankan tamils. For this, strict immigration laws needs to be enforced....I dont know about EU, but in India (i think even in US) the politicians use the illegal immigrants as votebanks and are reluctant to enforce strict immigrant laws.
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working_mom
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« Reply #6 on: 23 November 2008, 17:03:48 pm »

Quote
But the most obvious and apparent effect of this neglect in USA is the lack of innovation, R&D, magnificent infrastructural developments.... And I fear the USA is out of time.
I agree with this but i think compared to other countries US is still the largest spender on innovaion and R&D. This economic crisis has one positive fallout though, the unstoppable consumerism which lead people to borrow and live in debt will be a thing of past or so i hope.Hopefully people of this generation and future generations will take this as a lesson and live within their means or so i hope.
« Last Edit: 23 November 2008, 18:15:42 pm by working_mom » Logged
Dr. Phil
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« Reply #7 on: 24 November 2008, 14:40:43 pm »

What other choice do they have? The only problem with democracies is that we have to always choose the lesser of devils. Since Obama is still untested perhaps we can only hope that he will be better than his predecessor. I do not believe Europe and UK in particular has anything common with US. US does not carry any colonial baggage and was built by immigrants built with blood and sweat of its own people unlike UK which built its wealth on the blood and sweat of its colonies. I do not see anything wrong with individual countries in the EU trying to maintain their cultural identities and protecting their language. Each to his own, is my take on this. On one thing i agree though...uncontrolled immigration is a problem which needs to be tackled as it causes social tensions. With US its the Latinos, with EU its africa and with India its the Bangladeshis and the Sri Lankan tamils. For this, strict immigration laws needs to be enforced....I dont know about EU, but in India (i think even in US) the politicians use the illegal immigrants as votebanks and are reluctant to enforce strict immigrant laws.

What you mean by colonial baggage? Can you give me an example?
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working_mom
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« Reply #8 on: 24 November 2008, 16:45:25 pm »

Well the example is there in the next line itself.
Quote
US was built by immigrants built with blood and sweat of its own people unlike UK which built its wealth on the blood and sweat of its colonies
US became a superpower by espousing freedom and liberty. UK became a superpower through occupation and suppression of freedom in its colonies. When the sun finally set on the British empire, it became a mere regional power with little or no influence over its former colonies and I certainly will not elevate it to the status of super power along with US. To make the matter worse, when it came to leaving the occupied colonies UK made a mess of things and left with trouble brewing in almost all its former colonies(Ex., Africa and South Asia). The history of Europe makes it difficult for the countries to get together under one umbrella. If you can do it...that would be great but i doubt it. Combine this with the fact that the demography of Europe changing due to ageing population, I do not see Europe anywhere near to being a super power as US.
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Dr. Phil
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« Reply #9 on: 25 November 2008, 8:31:31 am »

Well the example is there in the next line itself.
Quote
US was built by immigrants built with blood and sweat of its own people unlike UK which built its wealth on the blood and sweat of its colonies
US became a superpower by espousing freedom and liberty. UK became a superpower through occupation and suppression of freedom in its colonies. When the sun finally set on the British empire, it became a mere regional power with little or no influence over its former colonies and I certainly will not elevate it to the status of super power along with US. To make the matter worse, when it came to leaving the occupied colonies UK made a mess of things and left with trouble brewing in almost all its former colonies(Ex., Africa and South Asia). The history of Europe makes it difficult for the countries to get together under one umbrella. If you can do it...that would be great but i doubt it. Combine this with the fact that the demography of Europe changing due to ageing population, I do not see Europe anywhere near to being a super power as US.

Let us be frank. The US was once a British colony and attracted immigrants from across Europe (and Asia) travelling to the New World for a new and more prosperous life. Many Europeans shipped out of English ports for the ocean passage.

I dont believe I can describe this New World in a few paragraphs but it did include many immigrants who were little more than an unscrupulous rabble to whom nationhood, law and order, taxes for the benefit of community and restraint in the pursuit of material gain were anathema. Wild West material.

Of course there were also many who wanted to build a God-fearing nation; to get it right second time around.

The former, unscrupulous types were amongst the leaders who created an unholy alliance of the worst, all of whom packaged unwholesome "greed" and "self-interest" as the "American Dream". And they advocated liberty and freedoms to choose and inalienable rights to control their own destiny.

They were led by "Founding Fathers". A clique of smart, greedy un-godly men who had outgrown the constraints of a civilised state, especially one with a silly king. Indeed Bush/Chenney later showed that they had similarly outgrown the moral and legal constrains of a civilsed world.

These Founding Fathers were hypocrites and pious men who considered the New World meant material wealth, nothing more. This mentality remains today within the GOP.

They fought well against the British for their right to be independant. Then they embarked on another war of independance; the bloodiest war in US history, against each other. Apparently the freedom to choose had been rescinded.

The USA stole many "states" including California, New Mexico, Arizona, Texas, Florida, Louisiana etc mostly Indians and Mexicans and perhaps it is poetic justice that the Mexicans have retruned; their own de-facto albeit passive war of independance almost won.  Grin

As for US becoming a superpower by espousing freedom and liberty, I would suggest that "superpower" means USA has bigger and/or more bombs, nothing more. The USA is not in Britain's class, never will be. Perhaps this explains its inferiority complex towards the British?

The USA does not practice freedom and liberty as you say and we have clearly seen this over the past 8 years. Your country's unparalleled greed compelled it to illegaly attack Iraq and I often recall the children killed and maimed in the opening salvos alone. Your people deliberately allowed the rabble to sack this cradle of humanity, having no interest in "relics of history"; Old World values?

The USA continues its alliance with Israel, signed and sealed in Hell which has sickened the Old and Third Worlds and you have protected an out-of-control Israel with their policies of state sponsored assassinations, collective responsibility (where they punish families of resistance fighters). You have allowed them to commit a holocaust against a homeless and vulnerable population terrorised for decades. And you all appear to be quite comfortable with this arrangement.

I often marvel at USA's blind faith in its own incompetence. Surely you learnt from Vietnam? We did send military advisers but you did not listen because we were Old World? And the consequence was a humiliating defeat and indecently hasty retreat.

There are many reasons why Britain lost its Empire. The two World Wars, the loss of so much iron from our blood, the cost demanded by USA, the aspiring colonial power....all can not be ignored.

But as I have said, perhaps the saddest thing about USA is its inferiority complex. In many ways the USA is like Bush, the son. He must also be a great disappointment and an embarrasement to his father.
« Last Edit: 25 November 2008, 11:49:48 am by Dr. Phil » Logged
CAExpat
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« Reply #10 on: 25 November 2008, 10:02:05 am »

I haven't bothered to log in for probably 2+ years but the comment "inferiority complex" had me laughing so hard I about fell off my chair.  You can't be serious!

Seriously, in all my years (and there have been many, I assure you) I have not met ONE American who gave even the slightest indication that they had even a teensy weensy itsy bitsy little itty bitty tiny ounce of "inferiority complex" issues with Britain.  Not one.

Perhaps you should change your moniker to Dr Freud.
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Dr. Phil
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« Reply #11 on: 25 November 2008, 11:45:05 am »

I haven't bothered to log in for probably 2+ years but the comment "inferiority complex" had me laughing so hard I about fell off my chair.  You can't be serious!

Seriously, in all my years (and there have been many, I assure you) I have not met ONE American who gave even the slightest indication that they had even a teensy weensy itsy bitsy little itty bitty tiny ounce of "inferiority complex" issues with Britain.  Not one.

Perhaps you should change your moniker to Dr Freud.

Perhaps you should visit him?  Grin
So you check in after 2-1/2 years to say I have not touched a nerve? LOL

I sometimes think the USA is not so much a nation as a loose alliance of gluttons. Do you know, Russia is a democracy for less than 10 years? Yet it has more of a sense of nationhood and community than USA to date.

I trust the rest of mt previous post was acceptable?
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working_mom
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« Reply #12 on: 25 November 2008, 11:48:18 am »

Quote
The USA is not in Britain's class, never will be.
nope it isnt....Britain as you said is a relic living in its past glory.

Quote
The USA does not practice freedom and liberty as you say and we have clearly seen this over the past 8 years. Your country's unparalleled greed compelled it to illegaly attack Iraq and I often recall the children killed and maimed in the opening salvos alone. Your people deliberately allowed the rabble to sack this cradle of humanity, having no interest in "relics of history"; Old World values?
What values are we talking here?? The values Britain passed to South Africa??? And look who is talking about Iraq war?? Was'nt Tony Blair part of Bush's "Yes Minister" Group???

Oh By the way, I am not an American.  Grin
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Dr. Phil
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« Reply #13 on: 25 November 2008, 12:09:49 pm »

Quote
The USA is not in Britain's class, never will be.
nope it isnt....Britain as you said is a relic living in its past glory.

Quote
The USA does not practice freedom and liberty as you say and we have clearly seen this over the past 8 years. Your country's unparalleled greed compelled it to illegaly attack Iraq and I often recall the children killed and maimed in the opening salvos alone. Your people deliberately allowed the rabble to sack this cradle of humanity, having no interest in "relics of history"; Old World values?
What values are we talking here?? The values Britain passed to South Africa??? And look who is talking about Iraq war?? Was'nt Tony Blair part of Bush's "Yes Minister" Group???

Oh By the way, I am not an American.  Grin

We do not teach our childen history. Their school books have been largely purged by New Labour.

The British government made a stand against Rhodesia and a Declaration of Independance followed. We had no authority in South Africa.
Incidentally, you only recently abolished apartheid in USA.
It never existed in UK.

Blair is your puppet, not a man who represented the British people.
He is too busy collecting his rewards for his "treason" from your lame duck president and corrupt businessman, oblivious to the damage he has done through his acts (and omissions).

So you are not an American. How often have I heard that?   Wink

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CAExpat
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« Reply #14 on: 25 November 2008, 15:34:14 pm »

Oh sugar, you didn't touch a nerve.  Funny bone perhaps but not a nerve.  I could see someone accusing some Americans of have a superiority complex perhaps but again, never have I seen anyone even close to exhibiting inferiority.  Hell, most don't give two hoots about Brits (not saying that's a good thing, just stating fact). 

Anyway, thanks for the laugh, I'm still sitting here chuckling! 
And now I'll leave and go back to lurkdom.



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