$300K Sg dollars. Convert to AUD$ or US$ or UK Pounds or keep it in Sg$

[What to do]

Hi I have cash savings of $300K in Sg $.
Heard Sg $ is going to devalue in Jan/ Feb 09
Should I convert it to AUD $, US $ or UK pounds for the next 6-12 months?

[What to do]

I mean convert it now and keep it in that currency for the next 6-12 months

[SGD bear]

Rationally, you need to figure out in which country you will be spending the money.  If it is in Singapore, then SGD is fine.  But if you're an expat, look hard and try to diversify as you're probably not spending your whole life in Singapore.  Better move into other currencies to hedge yourself.

From an investment perspective, I'm personally a bear on the SGD.  It has no upside now.  Singapore needs to devalue to save its economy from slipping further.  Back in 1998, when most Asian currency depreciated, SGD went to the 1.8 to 2.0 vs. USD.  Granted back then, USD was stronger, and it's weak now.  But on a relative basis, I think Asian countries are export driven, and they need their currencies lower in order to stabilize export and improve investment prospects and real estate! 

It's funny to me that people only talk about the weak USD...weak relative to what??  Singapore's trading partners are the U.S. and Europe, and to some extent other Asian countries. every currency is going to be weak.  that is exactly why SGD will need to depreciate to remain competitive as a financial center and attract both financial capital and export demand.


U.S. was the first to slip into a recession and will be the first to recover given its clean legal system and dynamic capital markets.   

[What to do]

Thanks
But which foreign currency is the best bet?
US? AUD? UK Pound?
I am thinking of using $100K to do foreign exchange trading, SG into AUD since i see the 20-30% rise and fall of Sg vs AUD in the last few weeks.

[SGD bear]

It seems to me you have a better shot putting money in the stock market than playing currencies.  however, USD and EURO are probably the best.  don't know much about AUD...

[Long term owner]

It seems to me you have a better shot putting money in the stock market than playing currencies.  however, USD and EURO are probably the best.  don't know much about AUD...

The Market ..will always find it balance point...

For a country like Singapore,which for decades managed it's finance in the most prudent way, i.e maintain +ve fiscal budget, invest consistantly
whatever surplus..and get rated AAA+ by all rating agency. The Market votes for it to appreciates....

Compare with US and UK which run national budget deficit for decades..it's value had been artificially prop up by in 70/80's japanese, 90;' and recently by china by way of US treasury bond..it' time of reckoning that's overdue...

Warren Buffet and Jim Roger had been bear for US $ for years now !
I will continue to hold S$. Singapore dollar vs Yuan is on a down trend, S$ versus NT$ is stable, S$ versus Japan is devalue by huge percentage,
The 3 countries above compete with Singapore for Export...I would only say
MAS( Monetary authority of Singapore) did their job...

as for korea(huge loan for the tech industries)is weightiing on the currency--> main export LCD/DRAM/electronic do not compete with Singapore directly

I will continue to hold S$......... 

[GBP]

If you don't need the money for a little while, I suggest put it in pounds sterling as it has hit historical lows against everything else.  It may go down a bit more two but over a horizon of 2 years, it is likely to rise by a lot.

[GDP growth negative]

Citi is forecasting the most severe recession ever for Singapore, with contraction of close to 3%.  I would not be taking on SGD risk.

[Dr. Phil]

Hi I have cash savings of $300K in Sg $.
Heard Sg $ is going to devalue in Jan/ Feb 09
Should I convert it to AUD $, US $ or UK pounds for the next 6-12 months?

Where did you hear this?
If Singapore devalues, it will signal disaster for this island, especially after past years of unrestrained inflation.

[star analyst]

Hi I have cash savings of $300K in Sg $.
Heard Sg $ is going to devalue in Jan/ Feb 09
Should I convert it to AUD $, US $ or UK pounds for the next 6-12 months?

Where did you hear this?
If Singapore devalues, it will signal disaster for this island, especially after past years of unrestrained inflation.

A lot of research houses out there are predicting a slight depreciation of Sg $.  Just check out one of their research reports.

[Dr. Phil]

If you don't need the money for a little while, I suggest put it in pounds sterling as it has hit historical lows against everything else.  It may go down a bit more two but over a horizon of 2 years, it is likely to rise by a lot.

Sterling has fallen from SGD 3 to SGD 2 and it will fall to SGD 1.
The UK is heavily in debt and is in serious financial difficulties, made no better by planned increases in spending.

The Aussie dollar is too volatile and will suffer as Producer nations shut down.

The Singapore dollar is the preferred choice but no longer, with a reported devaluation planned.

The US dollar is the only viable choice short term?

[dont think so]

Gbp has depreciated a lot but 1 sgd, no way.  With planned fx move here I reckon back to 2.5 to 2.7.

What's wrong with volatility anyway (as if most people on these things understand it at all).  Anyway, I'd buy oil.

[Vulcanl]

I have not heard anything about possible SGD devaluation.  The logic for such a move has been stated: export driven economy gets a boost by making what they're selling cheaper to the West.

The problem this time around is that the West does not want to buy what the exporters are selling, at ANY price. 

So cheaper exports will do nothing but create a vicious negative spiral as regional competitors try to 'beggar thy neigbor.'

I would buy Gold.  Physical Gold, not ETFs, or digital or receipts. 

Am still unloading US dollars. 

[Pound2gold]

Convert it to Gold.

I did that about a year ago.  Saved me from Sterling jumping off the cliff.

[Malaysian Expat.]

I have not heard anything about possible SGD devaluation.  The logic for such a move has been stated: export driven economy gets a boost by making what they're selling cheaper to the West.

The problem this time around is that the West does not want to buy what the exporters are selling, at ANY price. 

So cheaper exports will do nothing but create a vicious negative spiral as regional competitors try to 'beggar thy neigbor.'

I would buy Gold.  Physical Gold, not ETFs, or digital or receipts. 

Am still unloading US dollars. 

Where do you buy your physical golds?

If there is a disastrous collapse of US dollars and fiat money, will physical golds be seized by governments to support its currency, and gold trading banned, other than by the governments?