Asian Decoupling is here and I told you So

[amazing analyst]

all these arguments are saying is that decoupling hasnt occured and that it may occur.

its a fair comment, assuming stimulus money will really work in china. lets face it, china is bigger than the BRI countries combined and singers is just noise compared to china.
India far worse off than official statistics show and singers is about twice as bad as government statistics. but china is doing okay and seems to be able to write its own path to success.

and if you want to be part of an asian miracle vulcan1, you've made your bet on the wrong country. china is the place to bet on, singers is just a little tiny nation of asian traders who try to skim the top when goods fly around asia. and the skimming off the top in banking is working with the rich asean chinese, but truly dude... if youre betting the farm why are you in singers? china is where the action is and singapore is a poor substitute for the asian dragon.

my few cents, and yes -i run a significant outfit in china (from singers) and it's paying off for me right now better than any other market i participate in. especially india where i doubt there is any money to be had except for the entrenched industrialists, and even they seem to be hurting...

so wake up dude, a little hdb by singapore river isn't exactly participating in the asian dragon economies. youre about as far from the action in asia as los angeles in  an economic sense, skimming on shipping and transit but not really creating any intrinsic economic value isnt really what decoupling is about. wake up and smell the roses and learn a thing or two about how markets really work.

(and why i'm here? government in singers is great from a taxation and shelter perspective which works great if youre at the top, but i doubt that applies to you..

[interesting.]

some interesting comments, but a word of advice: don't be such an arrogant and presumptious prick.  if you want to be anything other than a fall guy in china, i hope you are a lot more humble in real life.

all these arguments are saying is that decoupling hasnt occured and that it may occur.

its a fair comment, assuming stimulus money will really work in china. lets face it, china is bigger than the BRI countries combined and singers is just noise compared to china.
India far worse off than official statistics show and singers is about twice as bad as government statistics. but china is doing okay and seems to be able to write its own path to success.

and if you want to be part of an asian miracle vulcan1, you've made your bet on the wrong country. china is the place to bet on, singers is just a little tiny nation of asian traders who try to skim the top when goods fly around asia. and the skimming off the top in banking is working with the rich asean chinese, but truly dude... if youre betting the farm why are you in singers? china is where the action is and singapore is a poor substitute for the asian dragon.

my few cents, and yes -i run a significant outfit in china (from singers) and it's paying off for me right now better than any other market i participate in. especially india where i doubt there is any money to be had except for the entrenched industrialists, and even they seem to be hurting...

so wake up dude, a little hdb by singapore river isn't exactly participating in the asian dragon economies. youre about as far from the action in asia as los angeles in  an economic sense, skimming on shipping and transit but not really creating any intrinsic economic value isnt really what decoupling is about. wake up and smell the roses and learn a thing or two about how markets really work.

(and why i'm here? government in singers is great from a taxation and shelter perspective which works great if youre at the top, but i doubt that applies to you..

[amazing analyst]

some interesting comments, but a word of advice: don't be such an arrogant and presumptious prick.  if you want to be anything other than a fall guy in china, i hope you are a lot more humble in real life.

fair point and the relative anonymity of an internet message board probably makea a man more manly than real life. but the substance of my points stand. you are a follower if you hitch your success to china without  being there. both hong kong and singers are essentially successful because of the mainland and not some intrinsic value created in their respective countries...

(and i feel real manly as i'm posting this from a business trip and have no worry about someone tracing my IP address overseas)...

[Vulcanl]

"...Still here - and it just goes to show how little you know about banking if you think bankers are having a bad time at the moment. In nearly every bank i know their global markets businesses have been smashing it out of the park the first half of this year. Look at the earnings update for Standard Chartered- they are on for another record year. Goldmans on for record year, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley paying back TARP. The good times are on the way back, clown..."

I don't agree with any of this.  The industry has dramatically consolidated and so the overall pie is not what it used to be.  IB is dead, banks are not hiring.  We are in the midst of continuing consolidation.  This will take a while.   

[Vulcanl]

"...You WEREN'T and AREN'T correct, you WERE and ARE the village idiot..."

OK, anonymous guest poster...please provide evidence to this effect. 

[Vulcanl]

amazing analyst,

"...ll these arguments are saying is that decoupling hasnt occured and that it may occur..."

I beg to differ.  Decoupling is here - EM Asia's collective GDP is growing while the USA/Europe's is shrinking.  That is the smoking gun, full stop.

"...assuming stimulus money will really work in china..."

There is no need to assume.  China stimulus HAS worked.  The only remaining question is how much of a kick

"...lets face it, china is bigger than the BRI countries combined and singers is just noise compared to china..."

Singapore is a beneficiary as I have explained many times here

"...and if you want to be part of an asian miracle vulcan1, you've made your bet on the wrong country..."

I am in Singapore for personal and professional reasons.  As a place to live I don't really care for China.  It would take a lot to get me to make that move.  I like SG just fine, thanks

"... if youre betting the farm why are you in singers? china is where the action is and singapore is a poor substitute for the asian dragon..."

Who said anything about 'betting the farm'? 

"...a little hdb by singapore river isn't exactly participating in the asian dragon economies..."

To each his own.  I am happy here, and have enjoyed staying in HDB and away from pretentious pricks

"...youre about as far from the action in asia as los angeles in  an economic sense, skimming on shipping and transit but not really creating any intrinsic economic value isnt really what decoupling is about. wake up and smell the roses and learn a thing or two about how markets really work..."

Now you're sounding a lot like those front-office gasbags (more pretentious pricks) I so despise

"...(and why i'm here? government in singers is great from a taxation and shelter perspective which works great if youre at the top..."

Who cares why you're here

"...but i doubt that applies to you..."

It doesn't and thank goodness for that!

[Smells like back office]

"...Still here - and it just goes to show how little you know about banking if you think bankers are having a bad time at the moment. In nearly every bank i know their global markets businesses have been smashing it out of the park the first half of this year. Look at the earnings update for Standard Chartered- they are on for another record year. Goldmans on for record year, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley paying back TARP. The good times are on the way back, clown..."

I don't agree with any of this.  The industry has dramatically consolidated and so the overall pie is not what it used to be.  IB is dead, banks are not hiring.  We are in the midst of continuing consolidation.  This will take a while.   

Sorry that the hiring may not have trickled down to the back office where you live, but hey hoo, the fact is most banks are hiring now, take it from one of the people who sat round the finance and banking forum from efinancial careers that you previously quoted with gay abandon...

[Message to Vulcan]

amazing analyst,

"...ll these arguments are saying is that decoupling hasnt occured and that it may occur..."

I beg to differ.  Decoupling is here - EM Asia's collective GDP is growing while the USA/Europe's is shrinking.  That is the smoking gun, full stop.

"...assuming stimulus money will really work in china..."

There is no need to assume.  China stimulus HAS worked.  The only remaining question is how much of a kick

"...lets face it, china is bigger than the BRI countries combined and singers is just noise compared to china..."

Singapore is a beneficiary as I have explained many times here

"...and if you want to be part of an asian miracle vulcan1, you've made your bet on the wrong country..."

I am in Singapore for personal and professional reasons.  As a place to live I don't really care for China.  It would take a lot to get me to make that move.  I like SG just fine, thanks

"... if youre betting the farm why are you in singers? china is where the action is and singapore is a poor substitute for the asian dragon..."

Who said anything about 'betting the farm'? 

"...a little hdb by singapore river isn't exactly participating in the asian dragon economies..."

To each his own.  I am happy here, and have enjoyed staying in HDB and away from pretentious pricks

"...youre about as far from the action in asia as los angeles in  an economic sense, skimming on shipping and transit but not really creating any intrinsic economic value isnt really what decoupling is about. wake up and smell the roses and learn a thing or two about how markets really work..."

Now you're sounding a lot like those front-office gasbags (more pretentious pricks) I so despise

"...(and why i'm here? government in singers is great from a taxation and shelter perspective which works great if youre at the top..."

Who cares why you're here

"...but i doubt that applies to you..."

It doesn't and thank goodness for that!

It really is like hearing from a 2 year old trying to play grown up. Let's see:

1) Asian collective GBP (whatever that is) may be rising, ever so slightly, but collective Asian GDP is still less than 10% of western GDP. Hardly challenging for first place are they? As an aside, India, which has 1bn people has the same GDP as Australia which has 20m people.

2) China - Has fallen from 8% annual growth to 4% annual growth in GDP despite a $850bn liquidity investment from the central government, hardly a turn-up for the books. Especially as they have now spent over 50% of their currency reserves.

3) Singapore a beneficiary - Really this statement is your most ridiculous notion yet, if Singapore has benefited why has GDP fallen an eye watering 20%? Hardly beneficial, unless you're saying GDP would have fallen 50% otherwise??

4) Singapore is a wealth management hub, but judging by your HDB purchase I don't you're in a position to take much advantage of that. And yes, your primary asset being a HDB is equivalent to a 'farm' in developed countries.

5)The fact is, the front office gives you purpose to live and work, without us you'd be another unemployed loud mouth wannabe without a roof (albeit HDB) over your head. The moot point is we are doing exceedingly well this year as the poster above mentioned.

6) Fact is most posters on this board are here because of the tax and because we will get rich 3 times as faster than in London or New York because of the agreeable tack rate. Some of us though will get a lot richer a lot quicker than you, especially with your attitude...

[Vulcanl]

"...Asian collective GBP (whatever that is)..."

Do not attempt to twist my words.  I stated "EM Asia's collective GDP" which is the sum of EM Asian countries GDP

"...may be rising, ever so slightly..."

We live in a relative World and Asian EMs are up 5% of so to Western contraction of 3% or so.  This is a swing of 8% (all rough estimates) which is not 'small' by any means

"...but collective Asian GDP is still less than 10% of western GDP...."

Just means there is more upside to EM Asia than the West

"...Hardly challenging for first place are they?..."

I have never made any statements about EM Asia gunning for first place.  Need to brush up on your reading comprehension, Front Office

"...As an aside, India, which has 1bn people has the same GDP as Australia which has 20m people..."

Again, more room for upside relative to the West

"...China - Has fallen from 8% annual growth to 4% annual growth in GDP..."

Reading comprehension problems again, I can already detect the pattern here

"...despite a $850bn liquidity investment from the central government, hardly a turn-up for the books..."

Really?  Been reading the news lately, chief?  What has the West been doing the past few quarters?

"...Especially as they have now spent over 50% of their currency reserves..."

Show me the source of this data.  Your word counts for nothing

"...Singapore a beneficiary - Really this statement is your most ridiculous notion yet, if Singapore has benefited why has GDP fallen an eye watering 20%? Hardly beneficial, unless you're saying GDP would have fallen 50% otherwise??.."

READING COMPREHENSION: Where did I state SG HAS benefitted?  I am on record as saying that SG will start to see its upturn by year end 2009

"...Singapore is a wealth management hub, but judging by your HDB purchase I don't you're in a position to take much advantage of that. And yes, your primary asset being a HDB is equivalent to a 'farm' in developed countries..."

Your cheap shot has gone nowhere.  I have borne much worse by much better.  Try again

"...The fact is, the front office gives you purpose to live and work..."

No, the front office has brought down the entire Western system to its knees as a result of your blind greed.  You add no value whatsoever to humanity.  Making money means nothing if it is at the expense of the hard working masses

"...without us you'd be another unemployed loud mouth wannabe..."

The arrogance dripping from this statement is breathtaking

"...The moot point is we are doing exceedingly well this year as the poster above mentioned..."

Yeah, bullshit.  You wouldn't even be around right now if it wasn't for taxpayer money.  PROVE THIS STATEMENT - I dare you

"...Fact is most posters on this board are here because of the tax and because we will get rich 3 times as faster than in London or New York because of the agreeable tack rate..."

Wrong era, sister.  Thankfully masters of the universe like you no longer post here because you have all been sent back to where you came from. 

I see more posts from people of varied backgrounds in Asia.  Much prefer to read what they write than you

"...Some of us though will get a lot richer a lot quicker than you, especially with your attitude..."

And God bless you, I'd rather be poor than turn into a dickhead like you

[Front Office rules OK]

Yeah, bullshit.  You wouldn't even be around right now if it wasn't for taxpayer money.  PROVE THIS STATEMENT - I dare you

"...Fact is most posters on this board are here because of the tax and because we will get rich 3 times as faster than in London or New York because of the agreeable tack rate..."

Wrong era, sister.  Thankfully masters of the universe like you no longer post here because you have all been sent back to where you came from. 

I still live and work here, because i never dealt in CDO's, any educated individual would know that it was CDO traders (mostly in the US) who were allowed to make stupid bets with prop money that caused the disaster that befell many of the more leveraged banks.

As for my firm, I don't recall ever tapping you up for your tax dollar, so i've proved you wrong.

Yet more noise from the bleeting back office, be thankful my good sense saved you from a life of deprivationand poverty in the streets of Singapore as a pennyless Ang Mo... and stop having a pop at your betters.

[Harry & da Comprehensions]

"...lets face it, china is bigger than the BRI countries combined and singers is just noise compared to china..."

Singapore is a beneficiary as I have explained many times here

Hmm some back office idiots don't know what they don't COMPREHEND

[the factory remains]

It would seem like yet another post of Vulcan writing to himself and replying to himself. next he will be congratulating himself on how correct he was.

The factory remains - well...the factory does remain..

Is Vulcan an agent now too ?? JBA's trainee perhaps..? I am sure I saw them having a business chicken rice lunch together at the hawker centre when I passed earlier on..

[gram]

1) Asian collective GBP (whatever that is) may be rising, ever so slightly, but collective Asian GDP is still less than 10% of western GDP. Hardly challenging for first place are they? As an aside, India, which has 1bn people has the same GDP as Australia which has 20m people.

Actually this figure is highly misleading. The combined GDP in nominal terms of the Asia-Pacific region incl. Japan is about 25% of global GDP, at $17 trillion USD. It is therefore more than 50% of the GDP of Europe and US combined. If economic purchasing power parity figures are used, which are likely a better gauge of true economic power, then Asian GDP would be close to 40% of global GDP and 80% of that of the US and Europe combined.
Anyone quoting a figure of 10% loses credibility, either dishonest or just plain unaware.

2) China - Has fallen from 8% annual growth to 4% annual growth in GDP despite a $850bn liquidity investment from the central government, hardly a turn-up for the books. Especially as they have now spent over 50% of their currency reserves.

The figure of 50% needs support and also the current estimates for China's GDP growth this year have been revised upwards by the major economic forecasters such as the World Bank and the OECD, to around 8%. Those 4% figures are probably annualised figures referring to a specific quarter, which means that at its worst China was still growing above zero% and that was before the effects of the fiscal stimulus started kicking in, which is very positive because it shows that even with a large external shock which didn't give China time to economically re-adjust, China could still grow at above the rates associated with developed economies.

[Vulcanl]

"...any educated individual would know that it was CDO traders (mostly in the US) who were allowed to make stupid bets with prop money that caused the disaster that befell many of the more leveraged banks..."

The cause of this collapse was not limited to CDOs.  All manner of 'innovative' derivatives instruments were created out of thin air and unloaded on the unsuspecting public from which the front office skimmed off enormous fees.  The front office then proceeded to place hugely leveraged bets on this crap and that is what caused the crash


"...As for my firm, I don't recall ever tapping you up for your tax dollar, so i've proved you wrong..."

I understand the spirit of your point and will of course grant that this emanated from the major Western banks and save for half a dozen or so they have all collapsed and therefore have been forced to take public money to survive.  Asian banks had sounder risk controls in place. 

So I stand corrected

"...Yet more noise from the bleeting back office..."

This statement is evidence of the front office mentality to follow the herd.  The word you intend to use here is 'bleating' not 'bleeting' and for some reason it has been overused in the property threads.  This phenomenon is similar to the front office practice of adding the word 'right' to every statement that comes out of one's mouth.  There is a distinct lack of independent thinking in this front office culture.  Just a bunch of vampires chasing the same trade, hoping to be the first one to get out

"...be thankful my good sense saved you from a life of deprivationand poverty in the streets of Singapore as a pennyless Ang Mo... and stop having a pop at your betters..."

This is a childish comment and also evidence of my issues with front office people.  Firstly, it assumes too much.  Do you even know what the term 'Ang Mo' means?!??!!?  How do you know I am even white, for goodness' sake!  Secondly, front office people are no 'better' than anyone else.  This 'master of the universe' mentality needs to go before you can ever be taken seriously again

[Vulcanl]

Smells,

"...Sorry that the hiring may not have trickled down to the back office where you live, but hey hoo, the fact is most banks are hiring now, take it from one of the people who sat round the finance and banking forum from efinancial careers that you previously quoted with gay abandon..."

You make it sound like its 2006/2007 all over again in the SG financial svcs scene.  Please show me ANY kind of evidence to this effect.