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ExpatSingapore Message Board 27 May 2012, 18:34:28 pm *
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Author Topic: Another big China 'correction' today  (Read 1733 times)
Watch it fall
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« on: 19 August 2009, 14:11:58 pm »
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Shanghai currently 4% lower, fallen through the 2800 support. Other markets in the region, which had been trading higher, are being pulled into negative territory.

Something more significant unfolding beyond a simple market correction?
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ExpatSingapore Message Board
« on: 19 August 2009, 14:11:58 pm »
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falling more
Guest
« Reply #1 on: 19 August 2009, 14:47:22 pm »
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Now down 5%.

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Omnipotent One
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« Reply #2 on: 19 August 2009, 15:46:26 pm »
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Don't worry. China will only go up. Always straight line up. It's different this time, remember?

---------------------
China Stocks Enter Bear Market as Index Falls 20% From High
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By Bloomberg News

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- China’s stocks fell, driving the benchmark index into a so-called bear market more than 20 percent below this year’s high, on concern the nation’s economic recovery will falter as the government reins in lending.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.7 percent to 2,774.77 as of 2:44 p.m. local time today, increasing its loss since the 14-month high on Aug. 4 to 20.2 percent. The gauge remains 59 percent below its record level on Oct. 16, 2007.

Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package, coupled with record bank lending in the first six months, helped the Shanghai index to more than double this year from the low on Nov. 4. The rally faltered as new loans in July declined to less than a quarter of June’s level, the regulator allowed initial share sales after a nine-month moratorium and companies including Yunnan Copper Industry Co. reported losses. China follows Russia among the so-called BRIC bloc of major emerging economies to have entered bear markets.

“The current correction is reflecting the tightening in lending,” said Andy Xie, a former Asian chief economist at Morgan Stanley, who correctly predicted in April 2007 that China’s equities would tumble. “We’ve seen the peak of this market cycle, though there’s likely to be a bounce as the government seeks to stabilize the market.”

The market may extend its decline by another 10 percent, Xie said Aug. 17. Even with the recent decline, the Shanghai index is trading at 30.4 times reported earnings, against 17.5 times for shares on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

An estimated 1.16 trillion yuan of loans were invested in stocks in the first five months, China Business News reported on June 29, citing Wei Jianing, a deputy director at the Development and Research Center under the State Council, China’s Cabinet.
« Last Edit: 19 August 2009, 21:15:51 pm by BoardManager » Logged
bail out
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« Reply #3 on: 19 August 2009, 15:55:43 pm »
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"The market may extend its decline by another 10 percent, Xie said Aug. 17. Even with the recent decline, the Shanghai index is trading at 30.4 times reported earnings, against 17.5 times for shares on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index."

Still probably got a lot further to fall.
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irrational exuberance
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« Reply #4 on: 19 August 2009, 16:27:56 pm »
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You missed the great quote where the Chinese Fund Manager blamed "irrational sellers" for bringing the market down.

Of course he never complains about irrational buyers when the market goes up!
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gram
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« Reply #5 on: 19 August 2009, 17:12:48 pm »
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Needs to get down to around 2300-2400 before it becomes interesting and worth a look again.
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Dr. Phil
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« Reply #6 on: 19 August 2009, 22:15:17 pm »
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When the dust settles, we must acknowledge the damage dome by mega Trust Funds which destabilise the markets. These require more control and oversight ie regulation. They must not be allowed to squander ordinary folks' savings without their express approval.

We must separate High Street banking from the casino activities which profit from pointless and inflationary speculations.

When you consider the scale of financial losses so far and what is ahead, which is far greater, it could all have been avoided. Common sense dictates that nobody would risk their OWN cash as they have risked their investors' cash.

I also agree, China markets will fall. But China will survive better than most.
« Last Edit: 19 August 2009, 22:26:49 pm by Dr. Phil » Logged
Vulcanl
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« Reply #7 on: 20 August 2009, 23:03:54 pm »
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China made back 4.5% of the week's decline today.  Make no mistake, we are witnessing the emergence of a badly needed counterbalance in the World economy.

Doc,

Based on the vitriolic, nonsensical responses that I have seen re: my thoughts about the front office and what they have done to us all, clearly we are dealing with people who have come to believe that unfettered capitalism is the ideal system, and heaven forbid should we consider an alternative.

These people are deluded.  The small minority who have profited at the expense of the vast and  overwhelming majority are in for a rude shock.  Gone are the days when the pursuit of profit for its own sake and at any cost is considered socially acceptable.  The planet's resources are finite and clearly going forward decisions taken by the private sector will need to take into account what is in the best interests of all, and not just them.

In America today we are seeing angry people taking to the streets in protest with automatic weapons strapped to their shoulder.  The current discourse is about health care but when the dust settles there the focus will shift to the wretched excess and incomprehensible greed of those standard bearers of capitalism. 

The West is in economic depression, and Asia (led by China) is not.  The latter's prospects are bright, they have turned the corner.  From what I have seen so far post-crisis, I am not so sure that we will right our ship until we return to some semblance of balance.

Time will tell.
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buy now
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« Reply #8 on: 21 August 2009, 0:16:17 am »
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China WILL bounce back.  The west has far too much debt and of course a war to fund.   Guess I will just stay here (not a hard decision). we are living in the best place anyone could wish to be living in.  Now I am off to have a beer by the pool.
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what a twat
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« Reply #9 on: 21 August 2009, 9:14:09 am »
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China made back 4.5% of the week's decline today.  Make no mistake, we are witnessing the emergence of a badly needed counterbalance in the World economy.

Doc,

Based on the vitriolic, nonsensical responses that I have seen re: my thoughts about the front office and what they have done to us all, clearly we are dealing with people who have come to believe that unfettered capitalism is the ideal system, and heaven forbid should we consider an alternative.



Oh yes, China bounced a bit in one day.  Forget PE ratios are ridiculous, a one day move signals a long term change in world economics. 

Based on the copy pasted b*llshit I have come to the conclusion Vulcan is retarded.  It is a pity  banks hire retarded morons like Vulcan who bleat a lot but fail to take the opportunities they are presented with to do anything about it and instead post on anonymous message ***.  God forbid some trader may shout at the spineless tosser so clearly this achieves more.
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Dr. Phil
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« Reply #10 on: 21 August 2009, 10:43:11 am »
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China made back 4.5% of the week's decline today.  Make no mistake, we are witnessing the emergence of a badly needed counterbalance in the World economy.

Doc,

Based on the vitriolic, nonsensical responses that I have seen re: my thoughts about the front office and what they have done to us all, clearly we are dealing with people who have come to believe that unfettered capitalism is the ideal system, and heaven forbid should we consider an alternative.

These people are deluded.  The small minority who have profited at the expense of the vast and  overwhelming majority are in for a rude shock.  Gone are the days when the pursuit of profit for its own sake and at any cost is considered socially acceptable.  The planet's resources are finite and clearly going forward decisions taken by the private sector will need to take into account what is in the best interests of all, and not just them.

In America today we are seeing angry people taking to the streets in protest with automatic weapons strapped to their shoulder.  The current discourse is about health care but when the dust settles there the focus will shift to the wretched excess and incomprehensible greed of those standard bearers of capitalism.  

The West is in economic depression, and Asia (led by China) is not.  The latter's prospects are bright, they have turned the corner.  From what I have seen so far post-crisis, I am not so sure that we will right our ship until we return to some semblance of balance.

Time will tell.

Yes Vulcani, I agree, but I believe China's future progress will be limited as access to overseas markets (especially US) decreases, which is a must if the US economy and others are to recover. This requires western economies to recover jobs lost to China and the skills too, which will soon disappear.

I was recently reading, in a Saigon newspaper, of GM throwing big parties throughout Vietnam for the domestic auto Dealers and how their (Ford) unprecedented success was due to their close relationship with dealerships throughout Vietnam.

Meanwhile in USA government subsidies to buy US cars has caused a false blip giving rise to claims that US is out of recession... giving rise also to claims from US Dealerships that they are owed billions in subsidies not yet paid.

As I have said with a market economy (not free markets) we may not have the right to control the free movement of money or production (where manufacturing takes place) but we do own our own markets and access should not be unconditional and all goods must comply with our own quality assurance standards.

In USA there are many who want to keep government out of business but the cost of goods must include many things. How can we "penalise" our own domestic industries for the costs of training, pensions funds, healthcare, quality assurance, policing, fire-fighting, national defence, and many other necessary costs, when we allow the same manufacturers to move overseas, dump all of these necessary costs, hire slave labour and send the manufactured goods back to domestic markets for top dollar?
Oh, are these costs to be borne by government, if so who will pay the taxes?

Perhaps, as with pollution control, with slavery also, we have "no right" to dictate to Third World economies? Its their turn now, right?

Some hard choices ahead. Its time to get real.  

And Americans should take time to imagine life without taxes.
 
We have to respect and defend our own borders and this will improve manufacturing and employment in our own countries and it will also prevent many other ills such as drug and arms smuggling, people traffiking etc. It will also help manage demand from any US universal healthcare program, which is essential if it is to survive.
  
« Last Edit: 21 August 2009, 10:53:39 am by Dr. Phil » Logged
panic panic
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« Reply #11 on: 21 August 2009, 12:27:51 pm »
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After opening up about 20 points the sti has dumped 40.

Hang Seng and Nikkei also down sharply in last hour.

Following vulcanic logic this irrefutably and factually represents a long term shift in global economics.  Sell at any price, quick, get off your stupid boat before it sinks.
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update
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« Reply #12 on: 21 August 2009, 13:27:06 pm »
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Due to lunch nothing has happened for an hour.

Global long term economy has therefore stabilised so panic over.
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quick buy
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« Reply #13 on: 21 August 2009, 14:43:38 pm »
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Due to lunch nothing has happened for an hour.

Global long term economy has therefore stabilised so panic over.

STI up 15 points after Lau Pa Sat lunch.  Long term global economy now looks very rosy indeed.  Buy, buy buy.  Miss the boat otherwise losers.
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what is going on
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« Reply #14 on: 21 August 2009, 15:17:08 pm »
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Damn, fell to nearly lunch time lows before rallying slightly and now on dip.  What to do.  Is the economy ok or not.

*** it, I will just buy a Sail unit, always up yeah.....
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