Anyone holding on to the USD?

[JJ Sporean]

Any reason why anyone would want to hold on to USD ?

With all the deficit spending by the US Gov, and super low interest rates and declining exchange rates.

Are americans actually producing/exporting enough to support their spending habits & consumption?

[Sunrayser]

You are better off holding Euro, Aud, Nzd or Sgd for the time being. 

[Sunrayser]

What came down the grapevine is that SGD will be allowed to appreciate from April 2010 onwards.

[Vulcanl]

"...Any reason why anyone would want to hold on to USD ?..."

No.  I have been posting about this for years now on this site

[markets are rational]

Any reason why anyone would want to hold on to USD ?

With all the deficit spending by the US Gov, and super low interest rates and declining exchange rates.

Are americans actually producing/exporting enough to support their spending habits & consumption?

Any reason to think that currency markets are reflecting reality?  Why did the Aussie-Dollar exchange rate go to .9700 last year, then dip down to .6100, only to be back at .8800 in less than a year?

Or was this a completely logical sequence of events?

It's just a roll of the dice right now, there's no rhyme or reason to it.

[Kubes.SG]

The AUSSIE's volatility provides a tremendous buffer for the local economy.  Certainly there are links to the commodity and interest rates, but when the sentiment went against the AUD the timing was perfect for providing protection to the domestic economy.  Recent AUD rises against most currencies are linked to the robustness of the economy, renewed commodity demand/prices, business/consumer confidence, huge infrastructure spending (actually productive vs the gifts the US has done) and talk of interest rate increases.

[Dr. Phil]

I still hold lots of USD.

The banks' spread makes buying and selling a waste of time.

Regardless of the slow decline of usd, the increasing prospect of a collapsing GBP will offer a sound recovery.

[markets are rational]

The AUSSIE's volatility provides a tremendous buffer for the local economy.  Certainly there are links to the commodity and interest rates, but when the sentiment went against the AUD the timing was perfect for providing protection to the domestic economy.  Recent AUD rises against most currencies are linked to the robustness of the economy, renewed commodity demand/prices, business/consumer confidence, huge infrastructure spending (actually productive vs the gifts the US has done) and talk of interest rate increases.

And you predicted this all of course based on a careful study of fundamentals.  Speculation, hot money, crowd psychology, and asset bubbles had absoultely nothing to do with it.

[Stanford_alum]

No. Agree with Vulcanl on this.

[Me me me!]

Anybody who doesn't want their USD's anymotre can donate them to me :-)

[Care to explain]

Dr Phil ? Genuine question.

[GBP Collapse]

Man I do hope GBP collapses, at least for a while.  I am saving up here hoping to retire back to the UK (well, my wife wants to go back!) and a serious, even temporary collapse would help me transfer my SGD's there.

[Vulcanl]

Here are changes in the value of SGD relative to various currencies that are often talked about here (comparison is year end 2008 to the present):

SGD to    YE 2008      Today    Change
AUD               0.9952          0.7953      -25.1%
EUR               0.5005           0.4871      -2.8%
GBP               0.4790           0.4477      -7.0%
HKD               5.4196          5.5719        2.7%
INR               33.9532         33.3277      -1.9%
JPY               63.4700          63.49        0.0%
USD               0.6975           0.719        3.0%

Americans and Hong Kongers should be happy if they are here on local terms.   Brits, Indians and Europeans not so happy.

F**k knows why Kubes is STILL here, going by the value of his home currency alone!!!

[Dr. Phil]

The slow decline of the USD dollar, 3% over the year according to Vulcani, is probably the least evil which threatens currencies. Losses holding USD have thus far been limited and it remains, for now, the currency for international trade.

The Euro is over valued and has some unresolved issues and I am hoping it will depreciate if only to distract the faceless gnomes of Brussels from their onward march to control every aspect of our lives. The greed of the financial sector may gift London's financial importance to EU; or to the Far East if the same gluttonous now fawning bankers have their way.

But the pound will collapse and Brown will be delighted and will scrap the GBP which must be resisted. However losses accrued holding usd will be more than recovered exchanging to GBP.   

The USA has a huge domestic market and does not need a weak dollar because it increases the cost of essential imports. The key is to buy American goods and create jobs at home and stop dollars leaking from the economy buying cheap imports. This results in more borrowing from China to replace these dollars and the downward cycle continues... They must strengthen the dollar, which has increasingly strategic importance. But I dont see this happening because the USA is now shown to be a corporation out for personal profit not a nation.
 

[zoomfin]

The USA has a huge domestic market and does not need a weak dollar because it increases the cost of essential imports. The key is to buy American goods and create jobs at home and stop dollars leaking from the economy buying cheap imports. This results in more borrowing from China to replace these dollars and the downward cycle continues... They must strengthen the dollar, which has increasingly strategic importance. But I dont see this happening because the USA is now shown to be a corporation out for personal profit not a nation.
 

need a miracle for this. Last time was almost 10% if you believe the stats. More like 16 to 17%. No jobs, no consumer.....