2010: What next?

[Econoramous]

Pardon my asking but what is the great prospect in China as the world's factory when their consumers elsewhere are either tightening their belts or have no money to spend ?

Are we to expect the burgeoning middle class in China to support the rest of the world's economy, including Singapore's ?

[Vulcanl]

Not just China's burgeoning middle class...but the rest of Asia's as well:

http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Key_Indicators/2010/pdf/KI2010-Special-Chapter.pdf

http://www.indepthnews.net/news/news.php?key1=2010-08-20%2014:07:11&key2=1

http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Asia/Story/STIStory_568317.html

[Electronic]

It's so sad to see that the success of a country is now being measured by the electronic goods its populace is able to buy (for the transient and shortlived happiness it produces ??)

[Vulcanl]

Electronic,

I couldn't agree with you more

[Vulcanl]

Quarter end's upon us this week...the home stretch beckons....'put up or shut up' time!

How is Vulcan doing (relative to his calls for this year)?!?!?

*Inflation will start showing up in the stats and become a headache for Asian governments (not so much for the West).  This means higher interest rates and stronger currencies in this part of the World

As I expected, inflation has been the story in Asia all year long.  The price of of milk at the supermarket I go to has increased by 4% already.  Signs of inflation are everywhere - it doesn't get any clearer than what metals prices are doing right now

*Bankers have not reformed, and I was way too naive to think they ever would. This means we should look forward to ever more dislocation. The need to hedge by owning REAL assets will be ever greater

The Western banking system continues to be a shambles.  Its future is clearer now, and it entails more regulation and less banks (still too many banks in existence, many more thousands need to go under).  Western Governments will see to a gradual and controlled decline in the size, number, and power of banks

*The Singapore property market will be very boring in that we will not see much appreciation or declines.  I do not expect the crash in properties that Kubes longs for.  There clearly is a base of support

Property's been anything but boring this year.  Kubes will never admit that the Gov't has done a good job of managing the property sector.  The fundamental difference between Asia and the West is that the demand for Real Estate in Asia is REAL, but more importantly buyers have CASH to make their purchases.  It is for these simple reasons that RE in Singapore will NOT collapse from these levels

*I like US Tech stocks.  Buying Nasdaq trackers now makes a lot of sense to me.  Rationale here is that innovation will be a component of the USA's recovery

NASDAQ is up 5% YTD.  S&P is up 3% YTD.  Need to see how this bears out from here to year end, but I will concede that this call is going nowhere this year.  As a matter of fact, I am expecting a COLLAPSE in US equities prices from current levels (to the tune of 50% declines).  The action in the equities markets the past few weeks has been unjustified by any kind of rational common sense consideration.  It is being driven by huge amounts of printed money chasing returns of any kind regardless of quality.  The US economy will not improve until people have jobs.  This will end very badly....

*Needless to say Emerging markets will continue to remain strong, but it is my hope that increases are more rational.  What happened this year was probably too much to soon and we have borrowed from future appreciation

EMs have been on a tear, with the rate of outperformance relative to the Western equity markets increasing recently.  Basically, Mom and Pop investor (what's left of them, anyway) have now finally jumped on the bandwagon (with good reason)

*Gold and EM Asian equities continue their bull runs and end the year at least 20% higher than where they are now

I like where we are right now vis a vis these calls

*USD-SGD will end the year at parity (or better) to the USD (Inflation will become a very real problem in Asia and the MAS will handle this by re-valuing the SGD upwards)

This is connected to Asian inflation...to now Singapore has been the World's fastest growing economy this year!!!!

*More trouble with US banks – This time one or two will be allowed to go under.   Citigroup and BoA are good candidates

I will stick with this call but will admit that this looks unlikely as clearly what the US Gov't intends to do is to continue to backstop any large institutions, especially in an election year.  This is insanity...moral hazzard risk continues to increase

*Singapore private residential property market will soar.  We will see increases of at least 20%  from 2009 year-end levels

*HDB will plod along and end 2010 with increased valuations between 4% and 6% from year end 2009 levels

Both of these are solid calls

*In the USA , unemployment will continue to be a problem, and closer to year end the mainstream media will finally acknowledge that America is in an economic depression.  Barack Obama and the Democratic party will not be blamed for this, however.  The 2010 midterm elections will NOT result in large Republican gains

Obama is a pretty cool customer.  If he is freaking out about the upcoming elections, he is just not showing it at all in his public face.  Contrary to what the mainstream media are saying, I do NOT see Republicans taking control of BOTH chambers of Congress.  They will definitely NOT take the Senate.  The House of Representatives is in play, however what the Republicans don't seem to understand is that the average American is fed up with BOTH parties, not just the one in power.  Clearly, though my statement about 'large Republican gains' above will NOT be correct.  They will indeed see LARGE gains.  I will be WRONG on this call

[Vulcanl]

Kubes,

If you had any kind of backbone whatsoever you would so something like this, instead of 'hit and run' guerilla tactics, then hiding behind funny pictures when backed into a corner...

[Kubes.SG]

V.  Kubes thinks that V is highly self-indulgent.  Kubes also thinks that V has been 100% incorrect in declaring that Asia has decoupled from the West, has has been most of  his other broadly stated thoughts.  Kubes thinks that V should grow some balls and start to put his wallet where is mouth is, and buy a $3m SG condo.

Kubes thinks that V should stop referring to himself in the 3rd person.

[bogg off]

V.  Kubes thinks that V is highly self-indulgent.  Kubes also thinks that V has been 100% incorrect in declaring that Asia has decoupled from the West, has has been most of  his other broadly stated thoughts.  Kubes thinks that V should grow some balls and start to put his wallet where is mouth is, and buy a $3m SG condo.

Kubes thinks that V should stop referring to himself in the 3rd person.

And we all think that Kubes should just bogg off while he's at it.

[Vulcanl]

"...V.  Kubes thinks that V is highly self-indulgent..."

Vulcan agrees

"... Kubes also thinks that V has been 100% incorrect in declaring that Asia has decoupled from the West, has has been most of  his other broadly stated thoughts..."

Kubes has yet to proffer any evidence to the effect that Asia has NOT decoupled, relative to Vulcan's voluminous postings on the issue on this forum, therefore Kubes loses - AGAIN   

"...Kubes thinks that V should grow some balls and start to put his wallet where is mouth is, and buy a $3m SG condo..."

As Kubes is well aware (because he awaits with bated breath every single one of Vulcan's contributions here and has for years), Vulcan believes that private property represents the second worst value for your money to be had here in Singapore.  HDB is the BEST 'bang for your buck' proposition, and Vulcan loves HDB. 

A corollary to this is that Kubes obviously assesses a person's status in his eyes by how much they flaunt their material wealth, and Vulcan believes this is a ridiculous thing to do.

"...Kubes thinks that V should stop referring to himself in the 3rd person..."

Kubes rocks...he's the best....GO KUBES GO!! 

[Kubes.SG]

[RTTTT]

What next? Gloom and doom!
There is unequal and unfair distribution of wealth.
People do not earn their living honestly by the sweat of their
brow any more.
The stock markets and financial institutions are casinos
manipulated by a handful of fraudsters with zero conscience.
The vast majority are subjected to trickeries day in day out.
Printing of paper monies to sort out debts is the silliest way out.
Gloom and doom and chaos will follow.

[bogg off]

Why dont you just bogg off cos you havent got a clue what youre talking about. Theres no recession here and there wont be.

[Zzzzzzzz]

Why dont you just bogg off cos you havent got a clue what youre talking about. Theres no recession here and there wont be.

You are out of touch. There is an ill wind blowing and it will reach all shores. Continue your intoxicating escapades at Boay Quay. Good Luck.

[RTTTT]

Why dont you just bogg off cos you havent got a clue what youre talking about. Theres no recession here and there wont be.

Your thoughts, analysis and reactions are confined to this tiny island. You are in poor shape. This is the global era remember.  Look out of your window, do you not see the political haze. The solution could be a bagful of notes, probably. That's rather irritating. Try talking economics with God for a change.

[Vulcanl]

Kubes,

Like I said:

[If you had any kind of backbone whatsoever you would so something like this, instead of 'hit and run' guerilla tactics, then hiding behind funny pictures when backed into a corner... ]