condon price to drop by 50% if interest rate reaches to 5%?

[double flip]

I'm betting on a few double flips  

[Present your case]

You should find the local investment *** where landlords get together to exchange notes.

The bravado is not quite you will hear from this *** trolls.

then, besides name calling.

[Upside?]

The problem is the market is artificially bullish because of the mickey mouse units. Trust me, if River Valley and Novena had launched normal sized units > 1200 sq ft at least, these projects would have tanked. Most of the analysis now still focus on "PSF". In short, if PSF remains high (albeit unlivable small units), the analysts continue to say there is upside in an area. And I hate to blow your bubble but developers of the "luxury" Orchard Road area may also start redrawing into mickey mouse units just to be able to sell. Then, it won't be luxury any more. Always remember, is it worth putting in $5 million in a single basket with only 20% upside? - lots of stock offer greater upside with lower risk and better ability to diversify. If it's for own stay, then it's a different story.

The definition of mass market is anything less than either $1.5 million or $2 million.  Shoebox units do not count.  I agree with the idea that the high end (ie. $2+ million to upwards of $10 million) has at least another 15-20% upside left.  Novena, Newton, East Coast, and River Valley are not really included in this definition.  I am more specifically referring to the top 5% of projects in Orchard, as well as the CBD and GCB markets. 

On a separate note, 2007 was hardly a bubble in Singapore.  A bubble collapses under its own weight, whereas the market in Singapore was poised for even higher prices were it not for the global financial crisis.  Remember, it had been languishing for close to 10 years at below market levels.  Had it been a bubble, we would have seen a lot more of a) vacancy and b) distressed or forced sales.  Instead we simply saw the majority of sellers demonstrate signfiicant holding power and not bothering to liquidate.  If the worst crisis in the last 80 years only created a small sliver of distress in Singapore for a few months, then I think it's safe to say that prices are going to hold up pretty well in the next few years...

I suspect more shoebox units to come next year. In Singapore a 300sq ft home at $2000psf costing merely $600k is considered high end, while a 1600 spacious home at $750psf, costing $1.2 million is considered "mass market". Interesting definition . No wonder everyone is rushing to buy the mickey mouse houses since it elevates one to "high end" even though most are cheaper than HDB flats. Novena, Newton and River Valley has gone down the shoebox route. Orchard Road might go in that direction as well - PSF may seem high but very misleading as these "high end" condos now attract a cheap crowd as your neighbour. There's not point comparing to 2007 prices because these are bubbly prices to begin with. Most of the new launch at the prime district by developers have already priced in all future potential already, leaving very little upside for the investor. If any, reading Citigroup's report, the mass market and the high end (excluding mickey mouse units as they distort the market) will converge further.

[JB9]

Why only 20% upside? Did you miss the boat? Sail is up over 50% already since December 2008.

Airport for you.

[Not The Sail]

I am afraid The Sail is NOT considered LUXURY - >1111 units and mostly tiny studios => tiny studios not considered luxury as explained above. We're talking about UPSIDE from TODAY's price for the luxury condos.

[RQAM]

Raffles Quay Asset Management points out that there are only three luxury developments — Marina Bay Suites, Marina Bay Residences and The Sail @ Marina Bay — in the area.

Difference of opinion.

MBS launches today. Anyone know what price? 3k+?

[no drop]

DBS group research has upgraded its calls on developers in the high-end segment of the market, including Wheelock (TP: $1.98), Ho Bee (TP: $1.64) and SC Global (TP: $1.69).

The positive outlook on the high-end segment is buoyed by various factors, including the likelihood of having higher transaction volumes of over $2,000 per sq ft in the third quarter of 2009and policies of the government that focus more on the mass-market instead of high-end, thereby controlling the policy risk for the latter.

Other factors include the launching of the Integrated Resorts early next year that is anticipated to be positive since this segment has the most demand from local and foreign buyers; recent status of Singapore high-end that looks relatively cheaper to the high-end of Hong Kong, the same valuation gap scenario that the group observed before the 2007 high-end run, with Singapore high-end as a potential beneficiary to the demands of the Chinese, and the segment is not sensitive to an expected growth in interest rates.

[To PP]

All launches of government land tenders are away from the high end districts. Nothing much to release in the prime districts. If the global liquidity trend persists, players will move in to these districts more aggressively. The way to go in these districts is through enblocs.

[Facts not opinion]

Raffles Quay Asset Management points out that there are only three luxury developments — Marina Bay Suites, Marina Bay Residences and The Sail @ Marina Bay — in the area.

MBS launches today. Anyone know what price? 3k+?

Difference of opinion.
Sail was sold as a $900psf project and its finishing, unit size and number of units with inadequate facilities reflect the pricing.

[but]

whats the selling price today?

[Mainland Chinese]

The problem with these analysts is that they always benchmark Singapore prices with Hong Kong and concluded that Singapore "luxury" developments is dirt cheap. But Singapore doesn't have the China hinterland. In addition, there is already reports in the news that whoeover who bought the HK unit at $12k psf is already regretting his purchase. There's also a recent report that a mainland Chinese buyer chose not to complete his purchase of Sentosa Cove - these people are prepared to cut loss and walk. There is a lot of hype on the casinos - but whether the mainland Chinese crowd bite is still a big question mark. Remember, there's also a lot of hype about the F1 and the Flyer and the Youth games but all have come and gone, without any significant on Singapore's property. While mainland Chinese are rich, they are not stupid - in short, they will only invest in assets that give max upside - I'm afraid there're choices than Singapore property.

[More mickey mouse]

Most of the launches in the next 2 years is going to come from prime districts. These prime districts have stooped so low to launch mainly mickey mouse units or 2 bedders in a desperate attempt to move sales. I think few developers have the guts to launch normal size units in prime areas anymore. The units might get even smaller going forward as most buyers are speculators.  On the other hand,the govt land sales are quite spread out  - north, south, west, east - each land parcel with 300 units or so - it's not going to flood the market. Most buyers will be owner occupiers - there is downside protection in that sense because there is a "real" demand for these good-size units. Please note the govt also had land in the prime areas - look around you. They chose not to release precisely because the developer's land bank has run low outside the "prime" areas.

All launches of government land tenders are away from the high end districts. Nothing much to release in the prime districts. If the global liquidity trend persists, players will move in to these districts more aggressively. The way to go in these districts is through enblocs.

[MBS]

And a good barometer for the sentiments in the luxury market is MARINA BAY SUITES because it has normal sized units. This project has been deferring its launch for the longest time and REFUSED to reconfigure to mickey mouse units despite mkt speculation that IT HAS TO. Most will be good-size 3-4 bedders. It has soft launched and is it selling well? If it doesn't sell like hot cakes, well...... it only means:

1) Owner occupiers are not interested to stay near casino - no real demand = > targeting speculators
2) Speculators are put off by the large units and most prefer small units with small quantum.
3) Mainland Chinese are also aware of possible asset bubbles in Asia and possible govt measures.
4) Not everyone believes the casino will fly
5) Universal Studios has released its prices and many are quite put off by the $72 per entry - there is no local catchment to ensure its success.

[To PP]

Too philosohpical about what should be.

The markets wants smaller units and the developers responded.

[to pp]

No they don't. Speculators think dogboxes are easier to flip, that is all. Nobody wants to live in them. When reality bites it will be messy.

At the end of the day property has value because people want somewhere to live, it isn't a random that sq ft equals whatever. Kiasuism short term states otherwise but these people will get burnt.