Reverse brain drain

[Vulcanl]

Amazing Analyst,

"...Anecdotal stories may make you feel good but its not exactly the truth..."

Anecdotal evidence is useful as it leads to what we are doing right now....debate to get at the truth

"....data proves that an foreign worker makes on average 10 times more in the usa than in china despite the fact that foreign workers in china make 48 times more than the average chinese worker...."

What is the source of this data?  Assuming I take this at face value, it doesn't tell me very much without knowing what the differences in cost of living are in each location.  Please provide that information as well

"....Of those with tertiary degrees you are 7 times more likely to leave china than united states, our roughly 4% of the entire population vs. 0.5% of the population. and yes, that includes emigration to canada..."

"...look at it, there is just no basis to argue a reverse brain drain. those with education leaves asia, those with education in the US arent leaving. even more telling is that in china only 0.3% of population is foreign born, in the US 12.8 percent or 43 times more. and that is despite all the taiwanese that has moved to mainland..."

Again, please provide the source of this information as well as the as of date.  It would also be helpful to have two different points of time to compare so that we can identify the trend

"...reverse braindrain? nope, none whatsoever...'

none whatsoever - are you absolutely sure about that?!?!?

".... -if USA opened up their visas even more people would leave asia. despite the economy, you will make yourself a much better life there if you just look at the hard numbers of economic opportunity. in fact at a global level 20% of all immigrants on the planet picks the United States as the land of opportunity, only 2% thinks the same way about china..."

This sounds to me like it is more opinion than fact.  Again, please supply the source of this so that I can have a look at it and comment further

"...facts do not support your ideas. As usual..."

Provide me those facts, please.  You have not done so

"...Emigration rate of tertiary educated > % of total tertiary educated population    3.79 %    0.45 %
Ranked 155th in 2000. 7 times more than United States    Ranked 181st in 2000.

"

Here you appear to be referencing stats as of the year 2000.  Do you have the same stats but more recent?

"...Foreign worker salaries     4,444,438,000    48,308,200,000
Ranked 16th in 2009.    Ranked 2nd in 2009. 10 times more than China

Foreign worker salaries > % of GDP    1.0 %    0.02 %
Ranked 93rd in 2009. 48 times more than United States    Ranked 148th in 2009. "

As mentioned, this doesn't tell us very much without having a cost of living base to compare against

"...immigrant population > Immigrants as percentage of state population    0.2944    12.81
Ranked 185th.    Ranked 40th. 43 times more than China

immigrant population > Number of immigrants    3,852,000    38,355,000
Ranked 12th.    Ranked 1st. 9 times more than China

immigrant population > Percentage of total number of immigrants in the world 2.064 20.56

www .nationmaster /compare/China/United-States/Immigration..."

Again - please provide bookend time periods so that we identify the trend

[Vulcanl]

Amazing Analyst,

Here is some more anecdotal evidence for you 

Asia finance hiring muscles through tough climate

REUTERS
Monday 22 August 2011, 13:09 SGT
By Denny Thomas, Sarah White and Rachel Armstrong

HONG KONG/LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The hiring window is open a crack for the Asian financial sector, keeping opportunities afloat for now while the industry shrinks across the globe.

Commercial and private bankers, mid-office staffers, risk managers and prime brokers are needed. Fund managers and lawyers are in demand as well.

Asia's persistent economic growth and tough regulations in the United States and Europe have combined to provide a pipeline of financial jobs in cities like Hong Kong and Singapore.

"In the last 12 months we've seen banks move a lot more middle-office roles to the region," said Neil Dyball, associate director for financial services at recruitment agency Robert Walters in Singapore. Mid-office jobs handle compliance related matters and materials.

While banks and advisory groups continue to take applications, the pace of hiring across Asia has slowed, executives and headhunters say, as the region is not immune to global market turmoil hitting North America and Europe.

Adding to the slowdown are thin fee margins and a shallow talent pool that has led to big jumps in Asia-related costs.

Despite these factors, job seekers are finding openings at compliance desks, private equity funds and law firms, albeit for less money.

Excessively paid professionals on fat overseas packages are now the exception and not the rule as they were before the financial crisis.

Legal professionals are still sought after too. Clifford Chance, one of London's top so-called 'magic circle' law firms and the largest of its peers, has added 12 new partners in Asia -- nine of whom are focused on the Greater China region -- to meet its growth goals.

TOUGHENING REGULATION

One major force behind the Asia hiring scene remains regulatory moves. Key structural changes proposed by new U.S. and European rules are boosting Asian middle-office staffing that handle compliance and risk.

Among the banks growing in this area is JPMorgan, which opened a new middle office for its global corporate banking division in Singapore.

Big European banks in particular are looking at major reorganisations as they want to shift some of their operations out of their U.S. bases in order to avoid the new rules brought in by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reforms.

"For non-American banks that have a significant presence in the U.S., a number are now looking at their business models and saying if Dodd-Frank is going to make it impossible or very expensive to do business in the U.S. do they need to continue doing it there," said Chris Matten, a financial services partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers.

"We anticipate that Asia is likely to be a beneficiary of that."

The United States' 'Volcker rule', which bans banks from engaging in proprietary trading, is another driver. While U.S. banks are unable to engage in proprietary trading anywhere in the world, non-American institutions are looking at resurrecting their Wall Street prop desks elsewhere.

Global banks have announced tens of thousands of job cuts as the industry grapples with the escalating sovereign debt crisis in Europe and slower economic growth in the United States.

Bank of America said on Friday it would cut 3,500 positions this quarter.

"A lot of aggressive hiring plans are being reconsidered," said London-based Tim Sheffield, CEO of recruitment consultancy Sheffield Haworth. "Banks are more cautious, and want to see whether they can transfer people internally."

Even with that caution, some banks stated during second-quarter earnings that Asia remained a hiring bright spot.

Standard Chartered, a lender where the vast majority of its business and headcount is in Asia, expects to add about 1,000 jobs this year.

Even HSBC Holdings, which is axing 30,000 staff globally, will still add up to 15,000 in emerging markets over the next three years, with Asia a huge part of its emerging market footprint.

Competition for talent from smaller brokers and boutiques is pushing up salary demands for a pool that is still smaller than other regions.

HSBC blamed wage inflation in Asia among other factors for the rising costs, while StanChart said first-half 2011 staff costs rose 15 percent on the year.

WEST TO EAST

Even with the prospect of higher personnel costs, the increasing flow of capital from West to East continues to push demand for more financial professionals in Asia. Prime broking -- the services offered to hedge funds -- and wealth management are two areas of expansion.

Asian institutional investors held about $1.6 trillion in assets in 2010, according to Citigroup . While that is only 7 percent of the global asset pool, it's a four-fold rise in five years, a research note from the bank says.

Aside from Clifford Chance, other law firms expanding in Asia include Berwin Leighton Paisner, which plans to open a multi-disciplinary office in Hong Kong and is eyeing expansion into mainland China; Beachcroft, which has opened an office in Singapore; Olswang, which is set for a Singapore launch; and Herbert Smith, which is looking at options for expanding into South Korea .

U.S. private equity funds, including TPG and Bain Capital, are expanding their China teams. 3i Group plc and Permira are also adding staff.

Citi started expanding its Asia commodities trading team aggressively, hiring several top traders, including a veteran oil trader from Goldman Sachs to be its global head.

"There is a tremendous economic and business opportunity in this part of the world," said Rajiv Lulla, head of transportation investment banking in Asia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch , who recently moved to Hong Kong from Paris

[Mu]

Does where you graduate university/college really matter?

The lore of a premier post-secondary institution is undeniable,
but maybe the subsequent economic payoff isn’t. By a new study
from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), you likely
need a university/college degree or diploma for your future salary’s
sake, yet where it comes from probably doesn’t matter.

[anon]

A lot of the big foreign banks cutting staff this week in Singapore. Welcome to the real world. Interesting to see if locals are disproportionately affected this time, like during the 2008/09 crisis when all the expat and bosses tried to save their own

[Vulcanl]

T2K,

There was another thread (apparently since deleted) where you and I were debating the Western vs Asian Standard of living.  My opinion has always been that Western (in particular American) SOL will decline whilst Asia's will go up.  We now has some acknowledgment in the mainstream media that this is indeed taking place:
A Long, Steep Drop for Americans' Standard of Living

Christian Science Monitor
19 Oct 2011 | 02:15 PM ET

Think life is not as good as it used to be, at least in terms of your wallet? You'd be right about that. The standard of living for Americans has fallen longer and more steeply over the past three years than at any time since the US government began recording it five decades ago.

Bottom line: The average individual now has $1,315 less in disposable income than he or she did three years ago at the onset of the Great Recession – even though the recession ended, technically speaking, in mid-2009. That means less money to spend at the spa or the movies, less for vacations, new carpeting for the house, or dinner at a restaurant.

In short, it means a less vibrant economy, with more Americans spending primarily on necessities. The diminished standard of living, moreover, is squeezing the middle class, whose restlessness and discontent are evident in grass-roots movements such as the tea party and "Occupy Wall Street" and who may take out their frustrations on incumbent politicians in next year's election.

What has led to the most dramatic drop in the US standard of living since at least 1960? One factor is stagnant incomes: Real median income is down 9.8 percent since the start of the recession through this June, according to Sentier Research in Annapolis, Md., citing census bureau data. Another is falling net worth – think about the value of your home and, if you have one, your retirement portfolio. A third is rising consumer prices, with inflation eroding people's buying power by 3.25 percent since mid-2008.

"In a dynamic economy, one would expect Americans' disposable income to be growing, but it has flattened out at a low level," says economist Bob Brusca of Fact & Opinion Economics in New York.

To be sure, the recession has hit unevenly, with lower-skilled and less-educated Americans feeling the pinch the most, says Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com based in West Chester, Pa. Many found their jobs gone for good as companies moved production offshore or bought equipment that replaced manpower.

"The pace of change has been incredibly rapid and incredibly tough on the less educated," says Mr. Zandi, who calls this period the most difficult for American households since the 1930s. "If you don't have the education and you don't have the right skills, then you are getting creamed."

Per capita disposal personal income – a key indicator of the standard of living – peaked in the spring of 2008, at $33,794 (measured as after-tax income). As of the second quarter of 2011, it was $32,479 – almost a 4 percent drop. If per capita disposable income had continued to grow at its normal pace, it would have been more than $34,000 a year by now.

The so-called misery index, another measure of economic well-being of American households, echoes the finding on the slipping standard of living. The index, a combination of the unemployment rate and inflation, is now at its highest point since 1983, when the US economy was recovering from a short recession and from the energy price spikes after the Iranian revolution.

In Royal Oak, Mich., Adam Kowal knows exactly how the squeeze feels. After losing a warehouse job in Lansing, he, his wife, and their two children have had little recourse but to move in with his mother. Now working at a school cafeteria, Mr. Kowal earns 28 percent less than at his last job.

He and his wife now eat out once a month instead of once a week, do no socializing, and eat less expensive foods, such as ground chuck instead of ground sirloin. "My mom was hoping her kids would lead a better life than her, but so far that has not happened," says Kowal.

With disposable incomes falling, perhaps it's not surprising that 64 percent of Americans worry that they won't be able to pay their families' expenses at least some of the time, according to a survey completed in mid-September by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. Among those, one-third say their financial problems are chronic.

"What we see is that very few are escaping the crunch," says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute in Poughkeepsie, N.Y.

Income loss is hitting the middle class hard, especially in communities where manufacturing facilities have closed. When those jobs are gone, many workers have ended up in service-sector jobs that pay less.

"Maybe it's the evolution of the economy, but it appears large segments of the workforce have moved permanently into lower-paying positions," says Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa. "The economy can't grow at 4 percent per year when the middle class becomes the lower middle class."

He would get no argument from Jeff Beatty of Richmond, Ky., who worked in the IT and telecommunications businesses for most of his career – until he hit a rough patch. He and his wife are living on his unemployment insurance benefits (which will run out in months), his early Social Security payments, and her disability payments from the Social Security Administration. Their total income comes to $30,000 a year.

"Our standard of living has probably declined threefold," he says.

Mr. Beatty, who used to make a comfortable income, now anticipates applying for food stamps. He and his wife have sold much of their furniture, which they no longer need because they have moved into a one-bedroom apartment owned by his sister-in-law.

Even people with college degrees are feeling the squeeze. On a fall day, Hunter College graduate and Brooklyn resident Paul Battis came to lower Manhattan to check out the Occupy Wall Street protest. He tells one of the protesters that America's problem is the various free-trade pacts it has approved.

Mr. Battis's angst over trade is rooted in the fact that two years ago he lost his data-entry job with a Wall Street firm that decided to outsource such jobs to India.

When he had the job, he made a comfortable income. Now his income is sporadic, from the occasional construction job he lands. He used to buy clothing from Macy's or other department stores. Now he goes to Goodwill or Salvation Army stores. He has even cut back on taking the city subways, instead riding his bicycle. Separated from his wife and his 15-year-old daughter, he says, "Try making child support payments when you don't have a regular income. I'm constantly catching up."

Even recently some Americans could tap the equity in their homes or their stock market accounts to make up for any shortfalls in income. Not anymore. Since 2007, Americans' collective net worth has fallen about $5.5 trillion, or more than 8.6 percent, according to the Federal Reserve.

The bulk of that decline is in real estate, which has lost $4.7 trillion in value, or 22 percent, since 2007. In Arizona, for example, more than half of homeowners live in houses that are worth less than their purchase prices, according to some reports.

Stock investments aren't any better. Since 1999, the Standard & Poor's index, on a price basis, is off 17 percent. It's up 3.2 percent when dividends are included, but that's a small return for that length of time.

"This is really a lost decade of affluence," says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor's in New York.

Among those who have watched their finances deteriorate are senior citizens.

"Given the stock market, they are very nervous," says Nancy LeaMond, executive vice president at AARP, the seniors' lobbying group. "They want to keep their savings."

But Ms. LeaMond also notes that about 2 in every 3 seniors are dependent not on Wall Street but on Social Security. The average annual income for those over 65 is $18,500 a year – almost all of it from Social Security, she says. "This is not a part of America that is rich," she says.

At the same time, seniors are getting pinched in their pocketbooks.

"Our members are watching all the things they have to buy, especially health-care products, go up in price," says LeaMond.

In Pompano, Fla., some stretched seniors end up at the Blessings Food Pantry, which is associated with Christ Church United Methodist.

"We have quite a few grandparents who are raising their grandchildren on a fixed income, feeding them and buying clothes for them when they can't afford to do [that for] themselves," says Yvonne Womack, the team leader.

Others, she says, are forgoing food to pay for their medical prescriptions. "And then there is your ordinary senior whose Social Security [check] has not gone up in the last several years, but food and gasoline [prices] have skyrocketed," she says. (However, Social Security checks will go up 3.6 percent in January.) The Blessings, she notes, is now feeding 42 percent more people than last year. "We also provide food you can eat out of a can," she says. "We do have seniors who are living on the streets."

Researcher Geoff Johnson contributed to this report.

This story originally appeared in the Christian Science Monitor

[Reference]

T2K,

There was another thread (apparently since deleted) where you and I were debating the Western vs Asian Standard of living.  My opinion has always been that Western (in particular American) SOL will decline whilst Asia's will go up.  We now has some acknowledgment in the mainstream media that this is indeed taking place:
A Long, Steep Drop for Americans' Standard of Living

Christian Science Monitor
19 Oct 2011 | 02:15 PM ET

Think life is not as good as it used to be, at least in terms of your wallet? You'd be right about that. The standard of living for Americans has fallen longer and more steeply over the past three years than at any time since the US government began recording it five decades ago.

Bottom line: The average individual now has $1,315 less in disposable income than he or she did three years ago at the onset of the Great Recession – even though the recession ended, technically speaking, in mid-2009. That means less money to spend at the spa or the movies, less for vacations, new carpeting for the house, or dinner at a restaurant.

In short, it means a less vibrant economy, with more Americans spending primarily on necessities. The diminished standard of living, moreover, is squeezing the middle class, whose restlessness and discontent are evident in grass-roots movements such as the tea party and "Occupy Wall Street" and who may take out their frustrations on incumbent politicians in next year's election.

What has led to the most dramatic drop in the US standard of living since at least 1960? One factor is stagnant incomes: Real median income is down 9.8 percent since the start of the recession through this June, according to Sentier Research in Annapolis, Md., citing census bureau data. Another is falling net worth – think about the value of your home and, if you have one, your retirement portfolio. A third is rising consumer prices, with inflation eroding people's buying power by 3.25 percent since mid-2008.

"In a dynamic economy, one would expect Americans' disposable income to be growing, but it has flattened out at a low level," says economist Bob Brusca of Fact & Opinion Economics in New York.

To be sure, the recession has hit unevenly, with lower-skilled and less-educated Americans feeling the pinch the most, says Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com based in West Chester, Pa. Many found their jobs gone for good as companies moved production offshore or bought equipment that replaced manpower.

"The pace of change has been incredibly rapid and incredibly tough on the less educated," says Mr. Zandi, who calls this period the most difficult for American households since the 1930s. "If you don't have the education and you don't have the right skills, then you are getting creamed."

Per capita disposal personal income – a key indicator of the standard of living – peaked in the spring of 2008, at $33,794 (measured as after-tax income). As of the second quarter of 2011, it was $32,479 – almost a 4 percent drop. If per capita disposable income had continued to grow at its normal pace, it would have been more than $34,000 a year by now.

The so-called misery index, another measure of economic well-being of American households, echoes the finding on the slipping standard of living. The index, a combination of the unemployment rate and inflation, is now at its highest point since 1983, when the US economy was recovering from a short recession and from the energy price spikes after the Iranian revolution.

In Royal Oak, Mich., Adam Kowal knows exactly how the squeeze feels. After losing a warehouse job in Lansing, he, his wife, and their two children have had little recourse but to move in with his mother. Now working at a school cafeteria, Mr. Kowal earns 28 percent less than at his last job.

He and his wife now eat out once a month instead of once a week, do no socializing, and eat less expensive foods, such as ground chuck instead of ground sirloin. "My mom was hoping her kids would lead a better life than her, but so far that has not happened," says Kowal.

With disposable incomes falling, perhaps it's not surprising that 64 percent of Americans worry that they won't be able to pay their families' expenses at least some of the time, according to a survey completed in mid-September by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. Among those, one-third say their financial problems are chronic.

"What we see is that very few are escaping the crunch," says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute in Poughkeepsie, N.Y.

Income loss is hitting the middle class hard, especially in communities where manufacturing facilities have closed. When those jobs are gone, many workers have ended up in service-sector jobs that pay less.

"Maybe it's the evolution of the economy, but it appears large segments of the workforce have moved permanently into lower-paying positions," says Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa. "The economy can't grow at 4 percent per year when the middle class becomes the lower middle class."

He would get no argument from Jeff Beatty of Richmond, Ky., who worked in the IT and telecommunications businesses for most of his career – until he hit a rough patch. He and his wife are living on his unemployment insurance benefits (which will run out in months), his early Social Security payments, and her disability payments from the Social Security Administration. Their total income comes to $30,000 a year.

"Our standard of living has probably declined threefold," he says.

Mr. Beatty, who used to make a comfortable income, now anticipates applying for food stamps. He and his wife have sold much of their furniture, which they no longer need because they have moved into a one-bedroom apartment owned by his sister-in-law.

Even people with college degrees are feeling the squeeze. On a fall day, Hunter College graduate and Brooklyn resident Paul Battis came to lower Manhattan to check out the Occupy Wall Street protest. He tells one of the protesters that America's problem is the various free-trade pacts it has approved.

Mr. Battis's angst over trade is rooted in the fact that two years ago he lost his data-entry job with a Wall Street firm that decided to outsource such jobs to India.

When he had the job, he made a comfortable income. Now his income is sporadic, from the occasional construction job he lands. He used to buy clothing from Macy's or other department stores. Now he goes to Goodwill or Salvation Army stores. He has even cut back on taking the city subways, instead riding his bicycle. Separated from his wife and his 15-year-old daughter, he says, "Try making child support payments when you don't have a regular income. I'm constantly catching up."

Even recently some Americans could tap the equity in their homes or their stock market accounts to make up for any shortfalls in income. Not anymore. Since 2007, Americans' collective net worth has fallen about $5.5 trillion, or more than 8.6 percent, according to the Federal Reserve.

The bulk of that decline is in real estate, which has lost $4.7 trillion in value, or 22 percent, since 2007. In Arizona, for example, more than half of homeowners live in houses that are worth less than their purchase prices, according to some reports.

Stock investments aren't any better. Since 1999, the Standard & Poor's index, on a price basis, is off 17 percent. It's up 3.2 percent when dividends are included, but that's a small return for that length of time.

"This is really a lost decade of affluence," says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor's in New York.

Among those who have watched their finances deteriorate are senior citizens.

"Given the stock market, they are very nervous," says Nancy LeaMond, executive vice president at AARP, the seniors' lobbying group. "They want to keep their savings."

But Ms. LeaMond also notes that about 2 in every 3 seniors are dependent not on Wall Street but on Social Security. The average annual income for those over 65 is $18,500 a year – almost all of it from Social Security, she says. "This is not a part of America that is rich," she says.

At the same time, seniors are getting pinched in their pocketbooks.

"Our members are watching all the things they have to buy, especially health-care products, go up in price," says LeaMond.

In Pompano, Fla., some stretched seniors end up at the Blessings Food Pantry, which is associated with Christ Church United Methodist.

"We have quite a few grandparents who are raising their grandchildren on a fixed income, feeding them and buying clothes for them when they can't afford to do [that for] themselves," says Yvonne Womack, the team leader.

Others, she says, are forgoing food to pay for their medical prescriptions. "And then there is your ordinary senior whose Social Security [check] has not gone up in the last several years, but food and gasoline [prices] have skyrocketed," she says. (However, Social Security checks will go up 3.6 percent in January.) The Blessings, she notes, is now feeding 42 percent more people than last year. "We also provide food you can eat out of a can," she says. "We do have seniors who are living on the streets."

Researcher Geoff Johnson contributed to this report.

This story originally appeared in the Christian Science Monitor

After almost two months, it's great that you found a reference to support you view.

[exPripps]

its quite funny, but over here, in Europe, there is absolute no mention of Singapore as in Asia. Instead China is mentioned now and then either in the context of trying to buy a company or related to anti social behavior like the poor toddler who got run over in Guangzhou and nobody lift a finger for ten minutes until a homeless took pity.

[Dr. Phil]

its quite funny, but over here, in Europe, there is absolute no mention of Singapore as in Asia. Instead China is mentioned now and then either in the context of trying to buy a company or related to anti social behavior like the poor toddler who got run over in Guangzhou and nobody lift a finger for ten minutes until a homeless took pity.

Yes truly shocking but sadly, not surprising.
Contrast that with the clip below.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSHHiGFr8Vo