GFC 2

[Redacted Buster]

haar haha & Vulcanl,

You two are scarily dumb of what is possibly around the corner. One miscalculation in the coming weeks will wreck havoc financially and politically in this area.

To say that there is nothing to fear in Asia is stupid. What about the raids in Indonesia in the last couple of weeks. Wasn't there a plan to attack the Orchard MRT? What about the deaths in Thailand? For god sake, North Korea sunk a warship and China don't want to do anything about it.

You cannot find a better arguement than potential attack on the Ochard Road..and Thailand + North Korea...........

Thailand --> shorterm may even benefit Singapore,some tourist has divert their trip to either singapore or malaysia

North Korea --> South Korea has very strong high end electronic or semiconductor mfg, with the recent escalation of risk, some of the business may in fact flow to singapore, unless the full war scenario pan out

Have you seen duck swimming on the lake, there are furious paddling of legs beneath the water....security is tight, camera are all around.coordinate by multiple-agency.. they know if anything like in Bali or 911 devastation will be big

why don't you test out the systems.. by behaving suspiciously around Ochard MRT, let see whether they pick you up ahhahahahahha

[redacted]

It was mentioned Asia was safe.

Now you are saying it is Singapore which is safe. Now if everybody could make up their mind to what makes Asia, that would be great.

Oh, on the note of how tight security is in Singapore I have two words for you, Mas Selamat.

[haar haha]

We have heard all this claptrap before - 'it's over', 'the whole place is finished', 'expats will be pink slipped' etc etc.  Yet it weathered the storm admirably and even grew while others shrank.  So go and eat dirt.  This is one place that will always do well for itself.

[redacted]

Please show me when Singapore grew and others shrank?

It weathered the storm admirably? How? The Recession? By the big drop in GDP? The lay-offs?

Could there be a correlation of the West slowly emerging form the GFC and Singapore massive increase in GDP as announced recently?

SINGAPORE IS NOT ASIA!

[learn to read]

We have heard all this claptrap before - 'it's over', 'the whole place is finished', 'expats will be pink slipped' etc etc.  Yet it weathered the storm admirably and even grew while others shrank.  So go and eat dirt.  This is one place that will always do well for itself.

You moron, nobody is saying that.

What is being said is that mass numbers coming from west to here is done, and it is.  Additionally those leaving and being replaced are being done more cheaply, either local grads (who were here already even if a lot of them are not Singaporean) and most certainly not on massive housing deals.  That doesn't mean Singapore's collapse it means that as an outsource hub it is now status quo and people disposable income is lower, very different.  Mass migration here is dead for a number of reasons, FX related inflation to base currencies, local inflation of costs, other viable alternatives which are cheaper and give (nearly) the same benefits.

Unfortunately speculation on property assumes mass influx which is just not happening, things are therefore over priced and there will be a lot of empty condos and offices and prices will fall accordingly.  You may note the STI has dumped about 15% pretty rapidly, unlike a lot of places housing almost exactly tracks this with about a 6 month lag).  What sort of idiocy sees prices going up by large amounts while rents fall as condos sit empty?

Again, this doesn't mean Singapore is dead it just means mass growth is over.

You may also wish to consider that we live here as well and being negative about the place is not in our interests.  Maybe we don't just swallow the koolaid and see the world through rose tinted glasses like you.  You may also note that in mature countries if someone goes "your govt is sh*te", "school exams have gone to hell" a local may very well agree with you rather than defend at all costs however irrational.  Even Kubes admits there is an Aussie housing bubble, why can't you be more rational?

[Haar haha]

There is no Aussie housing bubble.  Australia is one country which has also weathered the storm and theres still a strong demand for its exports in the energy & raw materials sectors.  Australia will keep growing and is one of the more stable countries to put your money into.  Kubes is right to invest there.

Migrants do continue to come to Singapore because of the lifestyle and security it offers to them.  Not just western FT but those from neighbouring nations.  So get your facts right.  So theres no crash or no bubble, just steady growth for the whole asian region pal.
And no 'Pink Slips' either. 

[Redarded Buster]

We have heard all this claptrap before - 'it's over', 'the whole place is finished', 'expats will be pink slipped' etc etc.  Yet it weathered the storm admirably and even grew while others shrank.  So go and eat dirt.  This is one place that will always do well for itself.

You moron, nobody is saying that.

What is being said is that mass numbers coming from west to here is done, and it is.  Additionally those leaving and being replaced are being done more cheaply, either local grads (who were here already even if a lot of them are not Singaporean) and most certainly not on massive housing deals.  That doesn't mean Singapore's collapse it means that as an outsource hub it is now status quo and people disposable income is lower, very different.  Mass migration here is dead for a number of reasons, FX related inflation to base currencies, local inflation of costs, other viable alternatives which are cheaper and give (nearly) the same benefits.

Unfortunately speculation on property assumes mass influx which is just not happening, things are therefore over priced and there will be a lot of empty condos and offices and prices will fall accordingly.  You may note the STI has dumped about 15% pretty rapidly, unlike a lot of places housing almost exactly tracks this with about a 6 month lag).  What sort of idiocy sees prices going up by large amounts while rents fall as condos sit empty?

Again, this doesn't mean Singapore is dead it just means mass growth is over.

You may also wish to consider that we live here as well and being negative about the place is not in our interests.  Maybe we don't just swallow the koolaid and see the world through rose tinted glasses like you.  You may also note that in mature countries if someone goes "your govt is sh*te", "school exams have gone to hell" a local may very well agree with you rather than defend at all costs however irrational.  Even Kubes admits there is an Aussie housing bubble, why can't you be more rational?

Another angle for you to chew on....the reason for European parenial
low growth rate is their populace is rapid aging...>25% is >60 years old...and it's accelerating. The phenomenon has happen in Japan hence the 2 lost decade.

Wat is the common denominator...low immigrant rate to replace the aging worker and low birth rate.

Singapore do not escape this aging reality. Singapore statistic showed
Median age to be 40-44. So they are in danger of going the way or the japanese and the european.

Thus the liberal immigration policy since 2005, albeit they overdone it to the dismay of the local.The policy of getting fresh manpower is inevitable, but with a tougher screening process, the number will slow slightly to cater for election...but will resume unless they wanna a low growth policy or the current productivity drive gain materialize..

[gram]

I can't quite understand this idea that a major financial calamity will happen this year. This is government debt we're dealing with, not corporate debt and governments have not yet run out of firepower. It will take a lot of things to happen for that to take place.
In Europe, it's more a question of whether there was the political will to bail out the weaker members of the union, the means are quite clearly available for the time being.
So, GFC2 in 2010. No.

[not a W]

Yep, I can't see it happening at all. The EU will bail out any sovereign nations - they'll just print as much money as they need to inject into the system. That will trash the Euro (much like the USD) but it will stave off a GFC2.

Temporarily, anyway. 

[double dip]

I can't quite understand this idea that a major financial calamity will happen this year. This is government debt we're dealing with, not corporate debt and governments have not yet run out of firepower. It will take a lot of things to happen for that to take place.
In Europe, it's more a question of whether there was the political will to bail out the weaker members of the union, the means are quite clearly available for the time being.
So, GFC2 in 2010. No.

Government debt IS as bad as corporate debt. Now OECD is urging most countries to cut down spending (Britain, Spain, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Japan etc...) If they all do it soon, and with the looming spending cuts in China, it will cause a serious recession. This will most likely start this year. The measures are painful but they should have been taken 5 years ago instead of inflating the world with the debt bubble.

[Dr. Phil]

There never was any sound logic associated with stimulus spending.

It made no sense to give a population money so that they could spend it: it was not as if the spending created jobs, indeed in UK we mostly bought imported goods which was effectively a loss of income from the UK economy.

But it was all about consumption, which pleased the MNCs especially those in retail in UK or those in manufacturing, located in the sweat shops of Asia.

And current logic dictated we allow as many migrants into UK as possible to maintain levels of consumption and demand.

Stimulus was achieved by government borrowing and now it appears it was bad because we have to repay the debt and when governments have fiscal difficulties they do two things: they cut government spending and they raise taxes.

Governments may say they will tax the wealthy via increases in VAT etc but the scale of the debt requires universal taxes.

And if we do not, we default on our national debt repayment and further necessary borrowing will be at higher interest rates which must be passed on to the population.

The goal will reduce disposable income and with property prices so over-valued, inflated by cheap unsupported loans, manipulating prices and massive immigration stimulating demand, the inevitable confrontation approaches.

Namely, negative equity and how to deal with it. We cant run forever; it is no longer behind us.

[I now agree]

I didnt think another recession or double dip was possible but now it certainly looks like it is on its way in UK.

[Down Baby Down !]

When the New York stock market sneezes, the whole world catches a VERY BAD COLD !

Only stupid people think that there will be no double dip.

Hungary has stated that its economy is on the brink and need help or will go into default.

EURO is now below US$1.20 !!!!

I am bearish on the market and I correct my forecast that the European mess & stock market plunge will hit Asia in 6 months, it looks like property prices will fall in 3 months.

I am shorting stocks world-wide while everyone was buying in the last few days.

The oil spill must have been the catalyst to all this mess

Read below:-

________________________


Wall Street stocks plunged Friday after a weak jobs report raised questions about the strength of the US economic recovery, with losses gaining steam late in the session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 319.75 points (3.12 percent) to 9,938.47 at 1855 GMT, solidly below the psychologically sensitive 10,000 level.

The tech-rich Nasdaq index dropped 79.39 points (3.45 percent) to 2,223.64 and the S&P 500 index, a broad measure of the market, shed a hefty 36.55 points (3.31 percent) at 1,066.28.

The Labor Department's keenly anticipated May jobs report proved a major disappointment.

The economy created 431,000 nonfarm jobs in May -- the vast majority due to temporary government hiring for this year's census. Most experts had expected 500,000 payrolls would be added.

More worrying, analysts said, was the private sector accounting for only 41,000 new jobs, about a fifth of the consensus forecast.

The unemployment rate slipped to 9.7 percent from 9.9 percent in April as the labor force contracted.

[Remember]

Do remember that in 2006/2007, a little world called "sub-prime" that no-body heard of outside the USA became the hot topic in 2008. It just grew, grew and grew. It affected every country that trades with the USA. No one thought that this will be the cause of GFC1.

Now Dr Doom, (aka Dr Roubini) who predicted GFC1 predicts GFC2. Here is a short timeline.........

Sep 2006 - Roubini saw the end of the real estate bubble: "When supply increases, prices fall: That’s been the trend for 110 years, since 1890. But since 1997, real home prices have increased by about 90 percent. There is no economic fundamental—real income, migration, interest rates, demographics—that can explain this. It means there is a speculative bubble."

Sep 2008 - "we have a subprime financial system, not a subprime mortgage market.  As the U.S. economy shrinks, the entire global economy will go into recession. In Europe, Canada, Japan, and the other advanced economies, it will be severe. Nor will emerging market economies—linked to the developed world by trade in goods, finance, and currency—escape real pain."

Aug 2009 - Roubini predicted that the global economy will begin recovering near the end of 2009

Jan 2010 - "We are just at the next stage. This is where we move from a private to a public debt problem . . . We socialised part of the private losses by bailing out financial institutions and providing fiscal stimulus to avoid the great recession from turning into a depression. But rising public debt is never a free lunch, eventually you have to pay for it."

May 2010 - markets around the world began dropping due partly to problems in Greece and the Eurozone. "Roubini believes Greece will prove to be just the first of a series of countries standing on the brink. We have to start to worry about the solvency of governments. What is happening today in Greece is the tip of the iceberg of rising sovereign debt problems in the eurozone, in the UK, in Japan and in the US. This... is going to be the next issue in the global financial crisis."

[Vulcanl]

Clearly we should expect markets to behave like they did (probably worse so) in 2008 from here to the end of the year.  My take is that this is not 'GFC 2' but rather the GFC of 2008 never ended...merely slowed down a bit by massive government action (that was all for naught, and indeed left Western governments with massive debts).

I continue to believe that this is a Western crisis.  Asia is fundamentally sound but admittedly continues to get dragged down by knee-jerk reactions on the part of Mr. Market.  This is all part of the final leg of the process of Asia decoupling.  We will know this process is complete when the USD collapses in value (what I mean by this is a wrenching, violent sudden decline of 20, 30 percent or more) relative to Gold and currencies like the Chinese Renmimbi, HKD, IDR, MYR, KRW, SGD, CAD and AUD (the latter two are commodity based).