GFC 2

[Dr. Phil]

Do remember that in 2006/2007, a little world called "sub-prime" that no-body heard of outside the USA became the hot topic in 2008. It just grew, grew and grew. It affected every country that trades with the USA. No one thought that this will be the cause of GFC1.

Now Dr Doom, (aka Dr Roubini) who predicted GFC1 predicts GFC2. Here is a short timeline.........

Sep 2006 - Roubini saw the end of the real estate bubble: "When supply increases, prices fall: That’s been the trend for 110 years, since 1890. But since 1997, real home prices have increased by about 90 percent. There is no economic fundamental—real income, migration, interest rates, demographics—that can explain this. It means there is a speculative bubble."

Sep 2008 - "we have a subprime financial system, not a subprime mortgage market.  As the U.S. economy shrinks, the entire global economy will go into recession. In Europe, Canada, Japan, and the other advanced economies, it will be severe. Nor will emerging market economies—linked to the developed world by trade in goods, finance, and currency—escape real pain."

Aug 2009 - Roubini predicted that the global economy will begin recovering near the end of 2009

Jan 2010 - "We are just at the next stage. This is where we move from a private to a public debt problem . . . We socialised part of the private losses by bailing out financial institutions and providing fiscal stimulus to avoid the great recession from turning into a depression. But rising public debt is never a free lunch, eventually you have to pay for it."

May 2010 - markets around the world began dropping due partly to problems in Greece and the Eurozone. "Roubini believes Greece will prove to be just the first of a series of countries standing on the brink. We have to start to worry about the solvency of governments. What is happening today in Greece is the tip of the iceberg of rising sovereign debt problems in the eurozone, in the UK, in Japan and in the US. This... is going to be the next issue in the global financial crisis."

This does not explain the fundamental fraudulent activities which caused the property bubble.
As for Sept 2006 comments, one can only ask why Singapore prices steadfastly refuse to reflect over-supply and falling demand? 

[remember yesterday]

What do you think of Nobel Prize Roubini's predictions Vs. Vulcani and other decoupling 'Einsteins' on this b***d: 


Reply #1284 on: 05 August 2007, 15:01:37 pm »
   
US economy is doing not bed, only the sub-prime having problem. US gov will do something about it to solve the issue.. Is still good in Mid-long term...

[Vulcanl]

PP,

For the sake of clarity, I have no idea who posted the referenced entry - but it sure wasn't me!!

[Dr. Phil]

I am not sure which is the greater priority of the French; European Empire or control over their more powerful and successful neighbour Germany. Perhaps they are one?

I do know EU expansion is driven by the unelected, faceless french bureaucrats in Brussels: employment as an EU bureaucrat requires fluency in that provincial language of France. 

And who can blame the poorer European countries for wanting a seat on the gravy train and falsifying their "books" to gain, not entry to EU itself but the EURO. Its like having a joint bank account with a millionaire. 

So now Hungary is teetering on the brink, but what about Romania?

Similarly, in USA the magic password is not "we want to join EU", but "we're all immigrants."
So that makes it all better? It appears so.

The huge ever-increasing demands on increasingly limited resources has already bankrupted many states. California is a classic example and when universal healthcare kicks in, the US will collapse and remedial action will be denied because those with their hands open and outstretched will control the ballot box.
But hey, your all immigrants, right? 

 

[Agent999]

Phil,

"one can only ask why Singapore prices steadfastly refuse to reflect over-supply and falling demand?"

If you really believe that you are extremely stupid.

I guess you are not so please stop taking the piss!

[No brainer]

Vulcan, the US dollar will never go away and is being used by the world to gauge their currencies, economies, oil, commodities, gold, etc. Stop talking about your stupid topic about "decoupling". This is a global economy......Singapore suffered in 2008-2009 and I know lots of people who were sacked without a moments notice.

Singapore recognizes the US dollar and you can actually write cheques or deposit them at most local banks without any hassle.

The EU is a giant with 16 countries plus the eastern wannabees.

Get ready for   T I M B E R !!!!

[delaware danny]

Ain't gonna be a good year.  Confidence in Euro down and US emplyment figures being down, has hit wall st.  A slow year and  a fragile one too.

[Vulcanl]

"...Vulcan, the US dollar will never go away and is being used by the world to gauge their currencies, economies, oil, commodities, gold, etc..."

For the time being, I agree.  The day grows nearer when this linkage will break down.  It's all in my'Asian decoupling' thread

"...Stop talking about your stupid topic about "decoupling"..."

I will do just that soon....but will continue to believe it presents the only viable thesis for the way forward

"...This is a global economy......Singapore suffered in 2008-2009 and I know lots of people who were sacked without a moments notice..."

I agree with you and have never stated otherwise.  Singapore and its regional brethren sure did bounce back pretty quickly, though didn't they?  And this in the absence of any kind of growth in the West.  Which proves decoupling has taken place

[remember yesterday]

PP,

For the sake of clarity, I have no idea who posted the referenced entry - but it sure wasn't me!!

I know, but it might as well could have been you. According to your decoupling post problems in West won't spread to Asia, totally wrong.

Just as wrong as these clowns in 2007 who thought sub-prime wouldn't effect Singapore.

[delaware danny]

Economy is so fragile, never say never.

[Vulcanl]

"...but it might as well could have been you..."

This statement makes no sense at all....I got out at the top of the housing bubble in the States and promptly made my way here to Singapore.  I have repeatedly and at nauseum also stated that  we should not believe anything that the so-called 'experts' have to say, most especially the Front Office!

"...According to your decoupling post problems in West won't spread to Asia, totally wrong..."

I would like to see your evidence to this effect.  I have already proferred mine

"...Just as wrong as these clowns in 2007 who thought sub-prime wouldn't effect Singapore..."

I don't recall anyone (including me) ever making this statement

[self-referential]

Just as wrong as these clowns in 2007 who thought sub-prime wouldn't effect Singapore.

In 2007 virtually everyone in the world thought sub-prime wouldn't be an issue anywhere.

[Vulcanl]

Not everyone...and certainly not me:

Reply #5:

http://www.expatsingapore.com/forum/index.php/topic,24108.msg281274.html#msg281274

Reply #1:

http://www.expatsingapore.com/forum/index.php/topic,34606.msg1317012.html#msg1317012

Reply #49:

http://www.expatsingapore.com/forum/index.php/topic,36084.msg1331245.html#msg1331245

Reply #3:

http://www.expatsingapore.com/forum/index.php/topic,36819.msg1339308.html#msg1339308

[That was brilliant]

Asia is great as China has lots of WESTERN money and can print more stuff that is pegged to WESTERN money.  Nice.

It is all robust, hence sti just puked 400 points.

No worried, housing market is tops because allegedly bankrupt WESTERNERS will rent stuff paid for by WESTERN mncs.

Do you realise just how stupid you are.

Whoosh.

That was really brilliant. And so true that no one actually cared to contradict the argument.

I love this uniquely Singaporean circular logic: we are totally dependent on the West, hence we have totally decoupled from them.

[That's right]

Migrants do continue to come to Singapore because of the lifestyle and security it offers to them.

That's right. Spot on.

I suppose it's this incredible lifestyle that made 5,000 Singaporeans apply for New Zealand residency in one month after NZ announced their pilot project to attract more immigrants.

And it must be this incredible level of security that allows a guy to break into a SMRT depot (long known as being a soft target in case of terrorist attack) , spend a few hours spraying a graffiti on a train that was put back in service the same morning, while the incident was reported to the police only after 48 hours. Or is it the same kind of security that allows a known terrorist with a limp to escape from a high security prison through the toilets window?