Price correction -3 to -5 % this year

[Vulcanl]

I think that some of us are seeing things very clearly.  The "World" is NOT riddled with debt...just the developed Western economies.

Things are going quite well here in Singapore, in actuality:

Singapore May Overtake China as Asia’s Fastest-Growing Economy
2010-07-08 16:00:01.4 GMT


By Shamim Adam
     July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore may overtake China as Asia’s fastest-growing economy this year, increasing the attractiveness of the city state’s stocks and putting pressure on policy makers to check inflation with a stronger currency.
     Gross domestic product of the Southeast Asian island will rise 10.8 percent in 2010, according to the median of 13 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey before the July 14 second- quarter GDP report. By comparison, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., BNP Paribas and Macquarie Group Ltd. have cut estimates for China to at most 10.1 percent in recent weeks.
     An acceleration in pharmaceutical output and the opening of two casino resorts boosted growth in the first half, the result of Singapore’s efforts to diversify sources of expansion beyond electronics exports. The push to bolster services may sustain the economy and support investment that spurred the island’s benchmark stock index to outperform counterparts in China, Taiwan, Japan and Australia this year.
     “Singapore has unique growth characteristics of its own as a function of having some new areas of growth,” said Manraj Sekhon, the London-based head of international equities at Henderson Global Investors Ltd., whose firm oversees about $94 billion in assets, including shares in Singapore companies.
     Henderson has “meaningful positions” in Singapore-based companies such as Wilmar International Ltd., the world’s largest palm-oil trader, and Keppel Corp., the biggest maker of shallow- water rigs, he said. Its holdings of Singaporean stocks, also including CapitaLand Ltd. and casino operator Genting Singapore Plc, are “close to the highest positions we’ve had,” he said.

                        Stock Performance

     Singapore’s benchmark stock index has climbed 28 percent in the past year, more than Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Taiwan’s Taiex, while the Shanghai benchmark has fallen 22 percent.
     Faster growth may prod the Monetary Authority of Singapore to do more at its next policy review in October, according to Kit Wei Zheng, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in Singapore. Wage pressures are increasing and inflation may reach 5 percent by the end of 2010, from 3.2 percent in May, he said.
     “There are now higher odds for the MAS to tighten further in October via a steeper appreciation” of the Singapore dollar, he said. Citigroup, which predicts Singapore’s GDP will advance
12.5 percent this year, says there are upside risks to its forecasts and the expansion may be as much as 15 percent.
     The central bank uses the Singapore dollar instead of interest rates to manage inflation, and on April 14 allowed a revaluation and shifted to a stance of gradual appreciation. The currency rose as much as 1.2 percent on the day of the MAS announcement, before slipping the following month as Europe’s debt crisis threatened to slow the global expansion.

                        Currency Outlook

     Against the U.S. dollar, Singapore’s currency strengthened
0.4 percent to S$1.3836 as of 4:30 p.m. local time yesterday, compared with a high for the year of S$1.3649 on April 30. It may advance to S$1.36 by year-end and S$1.33 at the end of 2011, according to the median forecasts in Bloomberg News surveys.
     Singapore’s ties to the global economy mean it’s unlikely to escape the impact of any renewed slowdown. Governments in Europe are embarking on austerity programs to cut budget deficits and households in some of the world’s largest economies are holding back spending, clouding the outlook for the rebound.
     “Some cracks are starting to show in the global economy,”
said Alvin Liew, a Singapore-based economist at Standard Chartered Plc. “Drugs and tourists likely boosted second- quarter growth above the first quarter but a Jekyll-Hyde year may see a weaker second half. Life can become very unpredictable” if you rely on pharmaceuticals and “start dabbling in casinos,” he said.

                          Drug Industry

     The performance of Singapore’s pharmaceutical industry is volatile as production swings by companies such as Sanofi- Aventis SA can cause industrial output to fluctuate.
     Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s government has raised the island’s GDP forecast twice this year as tourists arrive in record numbers, companies increase hiring and vessels leave the city’s ports carrying more cargo. The economic rebound has caused inflation to accelerate as rising demand stokes home and car prices.
     Singapore is likely to become Asia’s fastest-growing economy this year, according to Credit Suisse Group AG and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. Forecasts for the island’s expansion this year range from 9.7 percent to 13 percent among the economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
     Estimates by Goldman, BNP Paribas, Macquarie and China International Capital Corp. for China’s 2010 growth range from
9.5 percent to 10.1 percent. The government in Asia’s second- largest economy is scheduled to release second-quarter GDP figures on July 15.
     The last time Singapore’s GDP rose more than China’s was in 2000, according to data compiled by the International Monetary Fund.
     Singapore’s manufacturing increased an average 45 percent in the first five months of 2010, after declining an average 13 percent in the same period last year. Pharmaceutical output has at least doubled every month from March to May.

[Sober up]

It's the ill wind that's blowing, let's hope it misses our shores.

[impending doom]

It's the ill wind that's blowing, let's hope it misses our shores.

Yes - batten down the hatches! Hold on to your hats!

[Getreeeaall]

 The agents and developers are pushing prices
upwards n the balloon is getting bigger.  We
will be seeing the Japanese phenomenon
here if we are not careful where properties dive down
50pc in value in a few short years.

[X-PAT]

WHEN? I wanted to buy 2 years ago and was then advised that prices had reached their peak and were about to drop by 30%. 2 years later, the price of the property I wanted to buy has actually increased by 5%. Do I need to postpone my purchase by another 5 or 10 more years??

[Timeitrite]

WHEN? I wanted to buy 2 years ago and was then advised that prices had reached their peak and were about to drop by 30%. 2 years later, the price of the property I wanted to buy has actually increased by 5%. Do I need to postpone my purchase by another 5 or 10 more years??

When?? There was a window in Dec08-Mar09 when home prices were sharply lower. Just to name a few examples. Prices at Sky@eleven for the bigger units fell to $850-$880psf, now they are $1,400-$1,500psf. Robertson 100 was averaging $1,000psf, now they are at $1,600psf. Rivergate fell to a low of $1,200+psf, today it's $1,900-$2,000psf. A few units at The Sail were transacted at $1,200-$1,400psf. Now they are all above $2,000psf. You just have to take the plunge at the right time. Be greedy when others are fearful.

[ThePriceIsRight]

One or two at The Sail went for less than 1200 psf around end 2008

[the thing]

is that owners may be less reluctant to panic sell this time round seeing that the bottom lasted just 2 months the last time.The same goes for the bargain hunters-they will be worried about missing out and will start buying at the slightest sign of a price dip.So moral of the story-you can't time the market.If you have the means,the property in question is not your secondary/investment home and you believe that you can hold for around 10 years without panicking-just buy.

[contrarian]

lets just say that a price correction has to happen but we just dont know when. it tends to happen when people least expect it.

prices cant and wont keep on going up forever. if the economy doesnt bust property prices, one can rest be assured that a war or a natural calamity would ensure that it does.

the web bot warns of a big tipping point in 11/10. lets see what happens.

[@Agent21]

yeah absolute prices will as long you are very happy with inflation.
anyway the inflation adjusted prices are nothing to crow about.

prices will, relatively speaking, drop in a matter of time from the current levels.

by the way what happened in 1987, 1997 an 2009 to property prices ?

which reminds me that PM Lee stated recently that salaries are expected to increase by 30% in the next 10 years over here. so with inflation hovering between 3-5% p.a is the average Singaporean supposed to be happy ?

[StillOnTheUp]

SINGAPORE - Following is final private home prices data from Singapore's Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released on Friday:

* The Q2 prices were revised up to 5.3 percent from 5.2 percent in the flash estimate released earlier this month.

* Prices in central areas were also revised up to a rise of 5.4 percent from the previously announced 5.1 percent.

 
* Home prices remained strong, but transaction volumes have slowed in the wake of Singapore government measures to cool the market and uncertainties over China and Europe.

* URA's data usually has little effect on stock or property markets as the index tends to lag actual price movements.

[well yes but]

That is history, what will happen going forwards is somewhat different.

[FIRING RANGE]

We never ever learn till we get hit by a thunderbolt, it got to be a real big hard one. The property market is all about investors, speculators, hypes, smart buyers or otherwise, timings, in short a huge gambling casino coupled with the inter-related inconsistencies in the financial and banking businesses and stock markets affecting the world economies. Developers borrow and excite buyers who also borrow heavily from banks whose irregular scheme of businesses are now heavily questioned. Yet people are still betting on properties and it is on the up. Is it real? What about actual affordability, the means to settle, to repay borrowed monies. They are sucked into this frenzy-like euphoria.
 
Who are the players, who are the participants and who benefits. What is the percentage of people who are fortunately or unfortunately indulged in this merry- go- round. Buy high, hoping to sell still higher. Only a fraction. Will it benefit the economy, the overall well being of the country. Obviously not. The vast majority watches from the sidelines disillusioned sitting quietly, and the widening social divide, will there be problems later. Some governments are addressing these issues but is it enough and fair.

One glaring forgotten example, the psf at Ginza shot up to hundred of thousands of dollars and dive down to a tenth or less in value all happening a decade or so ago. They are still smarting. Memories are short. We are global cities, interconnected, mobile and living of each other. Will it be our turn next?

The debts continue and are piling up everywhere. Figures fluctuate daily. Nothing is nicely predictable. Can so-called nation of savers be unaffected. Is not China worried about their monies parked in the US. Are measures possible to bring realism, sanity, fairplay or are things being left in this gamble mode. How long will this situation last and is it good and fair for everybody. Or is there a need for a more sensible control and regulation less the property market remains forever a gambling den.

    

      

[redacted]

It has not changed in 2000 years but of course there is no point relying on history as a guide for the future.

So its kinda like owning 1 condo and telling everyone how they should invest their money?

[Correction??]

Private property prices have increased 5.3 percent in the second quarter this year, setting an all-time high in the price index to 184.1, and beating the earlier record of 181.4 achieved in the second quarter of 1996.

In spite of the smaller quarter-on-quarter increase and the expected slower growth for the second half of this year, the private property price index will surpass the 190 mark by end–2010, said Mr. Mohamed Ismail, chief executive of PropNex.

On closer observation of the major geographical areas, properties located in the Outside Central Region saw the strongest growth, with a 5.7-percent increase, while those located in the Core Central Region and the Rest of Central Region recorded increases of 5.4 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively. Together with a 6.2-percent growth in landed property, down from 8.3 percent in Q1, this suggests a stabilizing private property market with a slight decline in the number of investors.

“The shift in focus to the mass market, as well as the overall slower growth can be attributed in part to the European sovereign debt crisis, which hit Greece in 1Q10 and subsequently impacted the rest of Europe and the world,” said Mr. Ismail. “This economic uncertainty and the rising prices of private property have led to the steadily declining number of private residential units sold in the last two months of 2Q10.”

Private properties in the first quarter went for a median sale price of $1,000 psf or more, falling from 71.6 percent in Q1 to 47.6 percent in Q2, he said. “Investor confidence has definitely been affected by the shaky global economy.”

“For example, the top three selling projects in June 2010, which altogether accounted for 40 percent of that month’s sales, all had a median sale price of below $1,000 psf,” he added.

Private property prices will likely further stabilise and grow by another 3 percent to 5 percent per quarter for the rest of the year.