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ExpatSingapore Message Board 28 May 2012, 2:58:54 am *
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Author Topic: Property is on the up again  (Read 5305 times)
watching
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« on: 03 March 2011, 18:40:37 pm »
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There are now no empty units in my block. 

On the up again methinks.
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ExpatSingapore Message Board
« on: 03 March 2011, 18:40:37 pm »
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fyi.
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« Reply #1 on: 03 March 2011, 19:30:36 pm »
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Singapore property prices are up in January 2011

Prices of non-landed private home prices continued to climb in the first month of 2011 according to NUS Singapore Residential Price Index. The prices are up on average 2.6% in January 2011 month-on-month and the central region sub-index recorded a 2.7% rise. This is a rebound on a 0.8% decline in December 2010. Non-central region sub-index rose 2.5%. All this was despite the cooling measures introduced in mid January 2011.

Analyst in Singapore believe that the demand is coming from genuine home buyers while speculators are wiped out of the market by January 2011 property cooling measures. But it is also still early to talk about the effects of these cooling measures since the measures are introduced on Jan 14th 2011 and they were suprise for the industry. January data has half month brisk sales of pre-cooling measures sales and the real effects of the measures will probably seen end next month when February 2011 price data is compiled.

Still it looks like low interest rates and strong economic growth are pushing prices up. This can be seen in recent home loan figures released by MAS. Mortgage numbers grew 1.6% in January 2011.

There is now also another support for demand in the coming months: inflation. Inflation is a cash melter and most of the Asian rich hold a significantly large amount of money as cash. These people will be forced to direct their cash to non-cash investments since with an expected 5% inflation rate in Singapore for 2011, every 1 million held as cash will lose 50K in a single year! Combine this fact with Asian obsession with property and suspicion to stocks and other investments, it is not hard to predict that cash will flow into property market during 2011.

Filppers are out of the market by the last cooling measures but there are still geniune demand out there supported by low interest rates, high growth, increased job prospects and now inflation.
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Lots of
Guest
« Reply #2 on: 03 March 2011, 20:41:48 pm »
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Demand.

Definitely "on the up" again.
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to pp
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« Reply #3 on: 03 March 2011, 23:55:50 pm »
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If you prefer this train of thought, read this..

But I won't tell you the correct answer..


Non-landed private home prices up in Jan
2.6% jump in NUS index surprises analysts

By UMA SHANKARI

PRICES of non-landed private homes rose 2.6 per cent in January, according to the monthly index compiled by the National University of Singapore (NUS).


NUS's Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) shows that the growth in home prices gained momentum last month. Prices rose one per cent in December 2010 and remained flat in November.

For the whole of 2010, the SRPI climbed 11.9 per cent.

Analysts were surprised by the larger than usual jump in the number for January 2011, as the government imposed more demand-side measures to cool the property market in mid-January.

But most of the gain could have been racked up in the two weeks before the measures were implemented, they said.

Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng said that it is possible that prices could have climbed before the measures were announced on Jan 13.

He also said that the large number of small, or shoebox, units sold in January could have pushed up the index as such units sell for higher per square foot prices.

NUS computes the index using the market values of a basket of completed properties. Uncompleted projects are not included in the basket, but the impact of new launches on the prices of completed properties in the vicinity is factored in.

According to the NUS index, prices of non-landed properties rose in both the central and non-central parts of Singapore in January.

The sub-index for the central region showed that in January 2011, prices of non-landed private homes in Singapore's central region (districts 1-4 and 9-11) appreciated by 2.7 per cent.

Prices rose by a slightly lower 2.5 per cent in the non-central region.

Developers and analysts have said that private home prices may fall this year following January's anti-speculation measures, although they are not expecting a sharp drop.

Private home prices could fall 3-5 per cent this year but are unlikely to plunge, said City Developments executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng last week.

UBS Investment Research analyst Adrian Chua likewise expects mass-market prices to fall 5-10 per cent this year, with the other segments remaining relatively stable.

'However, we do not think that prices will collapse, even as the policy regime enters uncharted waters in terms of the severity of the cumulative measures,' said Mr Chua in his Feb 23 note.

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Ok, Ok
Guest
« Reply #4 on: 04 March 2011, 0:31:52 am »
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Mr Mah will give to you the answer..

03/03/11

Mr Mah stressed that the government will continue to maintain stability in the public and private property market.

But he also cautioned that it would not be without challenges.

"This will remain a top priority for us, especially in current volatile conditions. Property prices and economic growth go hand-in-hand. Property prices cannot be expected to stagnate while the economy is powering ahead, as it has done. But what the government can, and will try its best to do, is to stabilise the market and moderate price increases amidst extraordinary economic growth."
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Ok, Ok
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« Reply #5 on: 04 March 2011, 0:41:53 am »
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I do think that property prices for both public and private housing did track closely to market fundamentals like economic growth.

Public housing grew by 14.1% and private property by 17.6% versus the economic growth of 14.5% (from 14.7%).

Public property is -0.1% below and
private property is 3.1% above
the economic growth benchmark of 14.5% for the year 2010.

The supply of new completed housing estimated by URA for private property is:

2011  = 8430 units
2012  = 8116 units

The quantity in the pipeline is really an interesting point as each of the next 2 years supply is roughly about 9 months of the current demand level of 10400 units (2010's).

What is the tolerable rate of increase for property price in 2011?

Based on the latest economic growth forecast of 4 to 6% for 2011 and taking 5% as the median and factoring in the fact that supply is short of demand for 2011 which "probably allows" for another tolerable increase of say 3%.  The probable increased in property prices this year is about 8% (with control).
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either way
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« Reply #6 on: 04 March 2011, 1:45:28 am »
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The economy is forging ahead and therefore prices will only go up as the article correctly says.  Prices will not stagnate.

Theres little chance of a downturn now, we have ridden through most of it and the west although fragile, is slowly coming out of it.

Better times ahead for all methinks.
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To pp
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« Reply #7 on: 04 March 2011, 8:01:14 am »
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Both public and private property in Singapore is being managed by the government for now.

There is not much to debate about the direction of property in general, at least for the next 2 years..
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As I have said
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« Reply #8 on: 04 March 2011, 20:22:46 pm »
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The market will find its way. There is not much to debate about or to "sell".
 
03/03/11

Mr Mah stressed that the government will continue to maintain stability in the public and private property market.

But he also cautioned that it would not be without challenges.

"This will remain a top priority for us, especially in current volatile conditions. Property prices and economic growth go hand-in-hand. Property prices cannot be expected to stagnate while the economy is powering ahead, as it has done. But what the government can, and will try its best to do, is to stabilise the market and moderate price increases amidst extraordinary economic growth."
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Dr. Phil
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« Reply #9 on: 08 March 2011, 12:34:16 pm »
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Thousands of refugees from Libya and Tunisia are flooding Italy who respond by encouraging illegal immigration and demanding huge cash aid from EU, because its more lucrative than the ailing tourist industry. Never mind the consequences.

UK government are salivating at the prospect of USD200 per barrel for UK Oil.

Meanwhile in Greece the revolting population continues to demand more cash aid..... it was pointed out the problem is that Greek citizens refuse to pay taxes!  Shocked So this begs the question, why were they allowed entry to the EU?  Angry

QUOTE
By Mike Conlon | March 7, 2011

If this is economic recovery, then I want no part of it.

Another week has begun with the US dollar weakening and everything else going higher, as the Fed’s attempts to force-feed “recovery” have accelerated the pace of inflation fears. Oil is trading at 106 and change, and gold is reaching new highs in the 1440s. Turn on the television and all you will see are reporters standing outside of gas stations, complaining about the high price of gas.

Almost every major economy is raising interest rates (except for New Zealand who will be cutting rates after having had to deal with not one but two earthquakes in the last 6 months), yet Bernanke and the Fed keep turning that blind eye. Why are they so afraid of higher, normalized interest rates?

The reason is this: housing prices. Somewhere along the way in the madness of the housing bubble, consumers became convinced that the best time to buy a home was in a low-interest rate environment. With low rates, prices move higher. So what happens when rates move higher? You guessed it, prices go lower. However, once you buy a home, the price you pay is fixed and final. Interest rates on the other hand, can be variable and consumers have the option to re-fi to get the best rate.

So what has been happening to housing prices since we’ve had this zero interest rate policy (ZIRP)? They’ve gone lower. So Bernanke decided that since he can’t have rates lower than zero, both QE1 and QE2 would help him push rates to below zero, which is where the REAL rate of interest is today. And still, housing prices have declined.

After seeing that this hasn’t worked and realizing that banks, the government, and the Fed itself are all on the hook if housing prices decline further due to the Fed having to raise interest rates, Bernanke decide to turn a blind eye to the inflation around him, and is attempting to scare people into buying homes for fear that prices are going higher through general inflation.

But only a complete lunatic would be looking to buy a house today, with the price of food and energy rising, which is essentially going to take money out of a consumer’s pocket and prevent them from spending it elsewhere. Businesses will lose revenue and have to lay people off, contributing to further unemployment.

This doesn’t sound like a recipe for success to me. The Dollar is tanking, Libyan unrest is picking up driving oil higher (though don’t think for a second that the conspiracy theorists don’t see this as a major cover-up), and people are beginning to panic. This isn’t going to end well.

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It never was going to end well.
Does this sound familiar to European Expats?
Singapore property buyers beware.
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TheWrathOfGrapes
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« Reply #10 on: 08 March 2011, 13:35:43 pm »
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Meanwhile in Greece the revolting population continues to demand more cash aid.....

Revolting as in revolting (disgusting) or in revolting (rebelling)?

 Wink
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typical agent
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« Reply #11 on: 08 March 2011, 14:59:49 pm »
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No it does not sound anything even remotely like European expats.

The Singapore government has to hold property prices back artificially.

What willl happen when the reins are dropped. Obvious.

The only thing Singapore property buyers need to beware of is MISSING THE BOAT! Shocked

Yeah, yeah.  More agent cr*p.

There are a few things that can happen.

Rates stay very low and little else happens, property will go up and will be capped by Govt curbs as you suggest.

China dumps - property will drop enormously.

Interest rates go up to 4%-5%, locals can't afford to hold, prices dump.

Short term the first is most likely, medium to long term the others are.

Conclusion, short term time horizon, go ahead, 10 year view then you must be nuts.  Overall, you had better get your timing right.
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Dr. Phil
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« Reply #12 on: 08 March 2011, 17:26:00 pm »
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I think Singapore Agents believe they are on a par with Hong Kong?  Grin

I see daily the inevitable signs of recession here in Singapore. Premises closing....
Why only today I treated myself to lunch at Din Tai Fung and to my great disappointment was served chinese tea in a paper cup.  Huh Shocked
It was an Omen?
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wont crash
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« Reply #13 on: 09 March 2011, 4:39:50 am »
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I think Singapore Agents believe they are on a par with Hong Kong?  Grin

I see daily the inevitable signs of recession here in Singapore. Premises closing....
Why only today I treated myself to lunch at Din Tai Fung and to my great disappointment was served chinese tea in a paper cup.  Huh Shocked
It was an Omen?

Is this just a gut feeling or are you basing this on actual facts or data that you have gathered and analysed ?
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P.O.D.
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« Reply #14 on: 09 March 2011, 10:57:23 am »
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No it does not sound anything even remotely like European expats.

The Singapore government has to hold property prices back artificially.

What willl happen when the reins are dropped. Obvious.

The only thing Singapore property buyers need to beware of is MISSING THE BOAT! Shocked

Yeah, yeah.  More agent cr*p.

There are a few things that can happen.

Rates stay very low and little else happens, property will go up and will be capped by Govt curbs as you suggest.

China dumps - property will drop enormously.

Interest rates go up to 4%-5%, locals can't afford to hold, prices dump.

Short term the first is most likely, medium to long term the others are.

Conclusion, short term time horizon, go ahead, 10 year view then you must be nuts.  Overall, you had better get your timing right.


It looks like there is a sea-change in whims which drive economic mismanagement and we may see a raft of nations introducing higher interest rates, except USA which is lala land.  Cheesy
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