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YankeeDooodle
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« on: 27 March 2011, 20:54:37 pm » |
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Please, please little old greenback, can you strengthen just for a couple of weeks so I can dump you into another currency??
Folks, when, how and will this happen any time soon?
I want to buy either Aussie dollars or Sing dollars.
Unfortunately my dumb a## financial adviser had me buying a fund in US Dollars in 2006...
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ExpatSingapore Message Board
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« on: 27 March 2011, 20:54:37 pm » |
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scarbowl
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« Reply #1 on: 27 March 2011, 21:15:32 pm » |
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If you've been holding this since 2006 then you've missed a few recoveries already. Maybe it's time to stop complaining about your advisor?
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YankeeDooodler
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« Reply #2 on: 27 March 2011, 21:34:29 pm » |
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Yep, fair point, but the portfolio was so far down in those periods I was advised to 'wait it out'. Now the portfolio is almost back to parity so I'm ready to off-load....
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Averaging
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« Reply #3 on: 28 March 2011, 9:41:15 am » |
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Same here with a managed fund in pounds.
Significant gains since the crisis, but the pound is rubbish now.
Unless you desperately need the cash, then treat it as a long term investment. If you're paying monthly, you're averaging by buying the same number of shares for significantly less at present.
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_Oh dear_
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« Reply #4 on: 28 March 2011, 12:38:49 pm » |
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Please, please little old greenback, can you strengthen just for a couple of weeks so I can dump you into another currency?? Folks, when, how and will this happen any time soon? I want to buy either Aussie dollars or Sing dollars. Unfortunately my dumb a## financial adviser had me buying a fund in US Dollars in 2006... [/quote You mean Agent007 is still doling out financial advice?  |
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Vulcanl
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« Reply #5 on: 28 March 2011, 13:33:56 pm » |
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YankeeDoodle,
Cut your losses and get out now
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To Vulcanl
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« Reply #6 on: 28 March 2011, 13:55:11 pm » |
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YankeeDoodle,
Cut your losses and get out now
Please explain. |
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Vulcanl
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« Reply #7 on: 28 March 2011, 16:15:56 pm » |
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PP,
This what the OP stated:
"...Unfortunately my dumb a## financial adviser had me buying a fund in US Dollars in 2006..."
My opinion is that he/she should liquidate these assets immediately and then convert the proceeds to any combination of CHF/SGD/HKD/KRW/IDR/MYR.
OR they could leave the USD in their account but invest the entire some in an ETF that gets them non-USD exposure
OR EVEN BETTER: Buy physical Gold and/or other precious metals.
The USD is in the process of collapsing.
As to the whys and hows of this, please see my ample writings in this (Investments) section
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To Vulcanl
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« Reply #8 on: 28 March 2011, 17:17:28 pm » |
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PP,
This what the OP stated:
"...Unfortunately my dumb a## financial adviser had me buying a fund in US Dollars in 2006..."
My opinion is that he/she should liquidate these assets immediately and then convert the proceeds to any combination of CHF/SGD/HKD/KRW/IDR/MYR.
OR they could leave the USD in their account but invest the entire some in an ETF that gets them non-USD exposure
OR EVEN BETTER: Buy physical Gold and/or other precious metals.
The USD is in the process of collapsing.
As to the whys and hows of this, please see my ample writings in this (Investments) section
I guess that's what I wanted to know. I know you don't have a crystal ball, but when you say collaspe, how far and for how long? Susie Orman swears by averaging, but her view is for US domestic consumers, and of course does not deal with the currency risk. The thing is, let's say the managed fund is over let's say a 10 year tenure. If you're wrong and the USD appreciates to 2006 levels by maturity (about 5 years time), and the managed funds appreciate by just a modest 4% per annum, then the OP would probably get the return expected from the outset. In the mean time, the OP's payments in SGD would be lower, because of lower USD rate. Lots of 'ifs' I know. |
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Vulcanl
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« Reply #9 on: 28 March 2011, 17:43:47 pm » |
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To Vulcanl,
Please keep in mind that this is merely my opinion, however strong it is. I have positioned myself for this event and have negligible (less that 5% of my net worth) exposure to USD at this time.
"....but when you say collaspe, how far..."
More than 20% from these levels and probably more
"...and for how long?..."
Pretty much for good...it will be a one-time reset relative to Asian currencies
"...Susie Orman swears by averaging, but her view is for US domestic consumers, and of course does not deal with the currency risk..."
As you touch on, most mainstream USA financial personalities (Jim Cramer, Bob Brinker, Suze Orman, Robert Kiyosaki, etc) tend to focus on the USA only. Bob Brinker once actually advised someone on his radio show to stay away from non-US investments due to their high risk! (this was sometime between 2001 and 2004). I would ignore these people.
I suggest you google the following names and get acquainted with their ideas - they are on the right track:
*Stephen Roach (formerly Morgan Stanley, now at Yale)
*David Rosenberg (from Gluskin Sheff)
*Jim Rogers (commodity guy)
*John Williams (shadowstats.com)
*Peter Schiff
*Doug Noland
*Martin Hutchison
".... If you're wrong and the USD appreciates to 2006 levels by maturity (about 5 years time)..."
I don't think that this is going to happen. Read the works of the above guys, you'll see what I mean
"...Lots of 'ifs' I know..."
Indeed!!! That's what makes this FUN!
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Down for good
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« Reply #10 on: 30 March 2011, 3:18:50 am » |
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When the Fed prints $700bn out of thin air it creates two problems. Devaluation of the currency. Inflation. Sorry to say, the value of your savings has gone down because the money supply has gone up. And the bankers paid themselves billions of those dollars in bonuses!  |
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macdoag123
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« Reply #11 on: 03 April 2011, 14:01:41 pm » |
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Hi,
I've been thinking about USD/SGD lately.
Earlier this year my family moved to Singapore from the States. At the time of salary negotiations the rate was 1.31SGD to the USD or so.
As the dollar gets weaker, are we getting richer? Now it's at 1.26...
We're paid in SGD now but we think we'll eventually go back in 3 years or so. And we'll start getting paid in USD again.
Is this like a salary carry trade? Any links for more information? Or books? It's an interesting topic...
Thanks for reading!
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Notional
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« Reply #12 on: 03 April 2011, 16:02:14 pm » |
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Does your company assign you a notional USD salary? ie when you back will they convert your SGD salary to USD at the prevailing spot rate, or will you simply revert to the notional USD salary
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Agent Provocateur
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« Reply #13 on: 04 April 2011, 1:32:34 am » |
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PP,
Just so that you can have an equally compelling alternative view, read Bob Prechter. That perma bear is mighty bullish on the US$ right now and pretty bearish on almost everything else, inluding precious metals !
Anyways he is worth a listen.
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exactly
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« Reply #14 on: 04 April 2011, 2:22:35 am » |
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If you've been holding this since 2006 then you've missed a few recoveries already. Maybe it's time to stop complaining about your advisor?
Its not 100% the fault of the advisor if you park it and forget it. At this point there will be fluxuations all over the map. Volatility rules. If you were looking for a true exit it just depends on your time horizon. If it were me and I had some extra cash laying around... I would actually double down on the dollar and then cash out after the next increase. |
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