SG property prices to fall 40 % by 2016

[do the math]

SG property prices to fall 40 % by 2016

There was one important piece of news that went relatively unnoticed two weeks ago. The government set a new rule for property developers to complete and sell all developments they start within five years from now. This will end the current system of artificial price levels where developers can hold on to empty units for years and/or postpone the start and TOP when they feel the market is softening.

This combined with the upcoming supply of 70.000 units of which half are still not sold, the developers will have to put the remaining units up for fire sales when the 5 years are ending. The supply in the pipeline is rapidly increasing: 2011 = 10,889 units receiving TOP,  2012 = 12,043, 2013 = 12,882, 2014 = 20,550 and 2015 = 34,373.

Looks like the softest spot will be around 2015 and 2016 when developers have to offload all unsold units before the 5 year deadline. No one in the resale market is able to sell for current asking prices when developers will sell brand new units for lower prices.

The estimates for SG private property price decline were between 20 to 30 per cent, before introducing the new rules of 10 per cent stamp duty for foreigners and 5 year deadline for developers to sell. Taking the new factors into account, property prices will most likely decline 40 per cent by 2016.

[Blaze]

Good post PP. Unfortunately these kind of well presented posts are soon attacked by one-liners without any basis like 'they won't let it go down' or 'don't miss the boat' etc...

We sold our unit in October and since then the market has totally died.. Our condo has about 50 units for sale and only one was sold in November (compared to 6 in October). And that was before the announcement of the additional stamp duty.

[Agent007]

More chance of prices increasing 40%.

[Blaze]

More chance of prices increasing 40%.

And here was the first one... Just like I said and didn't take long either.

[goodness gracious!]

SG property prices to fall 40 % by 2016

Not an issue - we'll still be SGD 700k ahead on our purchase in Feb 2006.

[impressed]

And here was the first one... Just like I said and didn't take long either.

Clever boy!

[good grief]

If its going to drop by THAT much this is the time to get out now before the papers start hitting the panic buttons. 

Amazing how a lot of people had bought properties over this last few years during a major global downturn.

Things globally are not good at all. 

The gravy train has reached the end of the line you could say.

Agents, you should be ashamed for duping people into buying while the rest of the world was in decline.

[panic stations]

Who can sell in a tumbling market with news like this breaking out,  more inportantly whats it going to do after 2016 ?  The forecasts around the rest of the world cant predict whats going to happen.

The world is in unchartered waters just now. In the past there was often some sort of light at the end of the tunnel, but this time theres no light and we dont know how long this tunnel is.

If you happen to own a lot of gold, cash or have a few oilwells pumping out crude oil in your back yard you will probably be fine but the rest of the world is facing uncertainty.

At times like these we have to think about not whats happening on our own shores only.

[nonsense]

Who can sell in a tumbling market with news like this breaking out,  more inportantly whats it going to do after 2016 ?  The forecasts around the rest of the world cant predict whats going to happen.

The world is in unchartered waters just now. In the past there was often some sort of light at the end of the tunnel, but this time theres no light and we dont know how long this tunnel is.

If you happen to own a lot of gold, cash or have a few oilwells pumping out crude oil in your back yard you will probably be fine but the rest of the world is facing uncertainty.

At times like these we have to think about not whats happening on our own shores only.

This is Singapore leh!! no price will come down, only up!!! snap up properties now before you miss the boat!!!

[chortle chortle]

No sell now before youre lumbered with an overpriced shoebox.

[Dr. Phil]

Some time ago I said that the condos today will be the HDB of tomorrow.
But, quite seriously, I think HDB is far better quality.
If these dog boxes are knocked down, who will pay? Or should I say what mechanism will be used to get the taxpayers to pay? 

[Blaze]

Some time ago I said that the condos today will be the HDB of tomorrow.
But, quite seriously, I think HDB is far better quality.
If these dog boxes are knocked down, who will pay? Or should I say what mechanism will be used to get the taxpayers to pay?  

The developer pays the owners if it wants to redevelop that plot, and then pays the government to top up the land tenure. Nothing is done with tax payers money.

[Dr. Phil]

Some time ago I said that the condos today will be the HDB of tomorrow.
But, quite seriously, I think HDB is far better quality.
If these dog boxes are knocked down, who will pay? Or should I say what mechanism will be used to get the taxpayers to pay?  

The developer pays the owners if it wants to redevelop that plot, and then pays the government to top up the land tenure. Nothing is done with tax payers money.

Yawn.
So, if I understand you correctly, you are saying no private sector company is bailed by the taxpayers, right?
Shall we discuss the banks and financial institutions who received, or the savers who were promised taxpayers money?
Shall we discuss auto companies which were bailed out by taxpayers?
Shall we discuss generally, the unspoken rule that private enterprise stands or falls on merit and unlike state industry, does not fail and leach off the tax payer?
What about Quantitive Easing or Surplus Spending and was it really surplus when we have so much debt?
And what about PIIGS sovereign debts and who do you think will pay that?

Banks do not take risk.
Banks do not bail out unless the risk is underwritten.

Insurers do that.

[Rules can change]

i am sure the rule will be removed if the market moves significantly down

[Agent007]

OK so the rule will not be removed.

No big deal.